Incumbent Thomas Massie faces a tight challenge from Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky 4th District Republican primary, with recent polling showing the race deadlocked or separated by just a few points in the final week before the May 19 vote. Trump’s direct recruitment of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with over $25 million in outside spending from aligned groups, has narrowed Massie’s long-standing incumbency advantage and shifted momentum among older and more loyal Republican voters. Late-campaign events featuring Massie allies and Gallrein’s emphasis on party unity have kept both sides competitive, while undecided voters continue to lean in ways that sustain uncertainty. These factors explain why traders price a sub-3% margin as the most likely outcome for either candidate, reflecting the race’s volatility right up to election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
Gallrein <3% 30%
Massie <3% 27%
Gallrein 6-9% 24%
Massie 6%+ 23%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
Gallrein 9%+
14%
Gallrein 6-9%
23%
Gallrein 3-6%
18%
Gallrein <3%
30%
Massie <3%
27%
Massie 3-6%
18%
Massie 6%+
23%
Other
5%
Gallrein <3% 30%
Massie <3% 27%
Gallrein 6-9% 24%
Massie 6%+ 23%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
Gallrein 9%+
$248 Vol.
14%
Gallrein 6-9%
$145 Vol.
23%
Gallrein 3-6%
$20 Vol.
18%
Gallrein <3%
$20 Vol.
30%
Massie <3%
$20 Vol.
27%
Massie 3-6%
$40 Vol.
18%
Massie 6%+
$20 Vol.
23%
Other
$227 Vol.
5%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Thomas Massie faces a tight challenge from Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky 4th District Republican primary, with recent polling showing the race deadlocked or separated by just a few points in the final week before the May 19 vote. Trump’s direct recruitment of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with over $25 million in outside spending from aligned groups, has narrowed Massie’s long-standing incumbency advantage and shifted momentum among older and more loyal Republican voters. Late-campaign events featuring Massie allies and Gallrein’s emphasis on party unity have kept both sides competitive, while undecided voters continue to lean in ways that sustain uncertainty. These factors explain why traders price a sub-3% margin as the most likely outcome for either candidate, reflecting the race’s volatility right up to election day.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
Volume
$741End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Thomas Massie faces a tight challenge from Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky 4th District Republican primary, with recent polling showing the race deadlocked or separated by just a few points in the final week before the May 19 vote. Trump’s direct recruitment of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with over $25 million in outside spending from aligned groups, has narrowed Massie’s long-standing incumbency advantage and shifted momentum among older and more loyal Republican voters. Late-campaign events featuring Massie allies and Gallrein’s emphasis on party unity have kept both sides competitive, while undecided voters continue to lean in ways that sustain uncertainty. These factors explain why traders price a sub-3% margin as the most likely outcome for either candidate, reflecting the race’s volatility right up to election day.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$741End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Thomas Massie faces a tight challenge from Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein in the Kentucky 4th District Republican primary, with recent polling showing the race deadlocked or separated by just a few points in the final week before the May 19 vote. Trump’s direct recruitment of Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with over $25 million in outside spending from aligned groups, has narrowed Massie’s long-standing incumbency advantage and shifted momentum among older and more loyal Republican voters. Late-campaign events featuring Massie allies and Gallrein’s emphasis on party unity have kept both sides competitive, while undecided voters continue to lean in ways that sustain uncertainty. These factors explain why traders price a sub-3% margin as the most likely outcome for either candidate, reflecting the race’s volatility right up to election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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