Skip to main content
icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?
Politics·US Election

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?
Politics·US Election

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Incumbent Karen Bass leads recent polls at around 25 percent support in a crowded field of 14 candidates for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, with Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trailing in the low double digits and roughly 40 percent of voters still undecided. Los Angeles city rules require a majority for an outright win to avoid a November runoff, a threshold no serious contender has approached in any published survey. Fundraising momentum for challengers and a recent debate have not produced the consolidation needed to push any candidate near 50 percent, consistent with historical patterns in fragmented Los Angeles mayoral contests. Traders therefore assign just 9 percent probability to an outright first-round victory.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Volume
$535
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Incumbent Karen Bass leads recent polls at around 25 percent support in a crowded field of 14 candidates for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, with Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trailing in the low double digits and roughly 40 percent of voters still undecided. Los Angeles city rules require a majority for an outright win to avoid a November runoff, a threshold no serious contender has approached in any published survey. Fundraising momentum for challengers and a recent debate have not produced the consolidation needed to push any candidate near 50 percent, consistent with historical patterns in fragmented Los Angeles mayoral contests. Traders therefore assign just 9 percent probability to an outright first-round victory.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Volume
$535
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.

Related

icon for Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

43%
icon for Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

46%
icon for Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

57%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.