Brian Poindexter holds an 81% implied probability in the OH-07 House race primarily because domestic abuse allegations against incumbent Republican Max Miller, raised by his ex-wife and involving their young child, have shifted the once solidly Republican district into a toss-up. Attack ads highlighting court documents and child welfare findings have intensified since late September, drawing national attention and prompting heavy Democratic spending that outpaces Republican efforts three-to-one. Poindexter, a union ironworker and former city councilman, has positioned himself on constituent services and local priorities while Miller denies the claims and faces calls from some party figures to withdraw. Multiple forecasters rate the November 3 contest as competitive, with recent polling showing Poindexter ahead.