Jenny Costa Honeycutt holds a 60% implied probability in this open South Carolina 1st District race because the coastal seat carries a Republican lean and benefits from coordinated outside spending by GOP-aligned groups, including Trump-endorsed PACs. Honeycutt, a Charleston County council member who won her party’s June runoff, faces retired Navy Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore, whose strong third-quarter fundraising and early television advertising narrowed the contest. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report moved the race to Lean Republican in mid-October after noting Lacore’s spending edge alongside sustained Republican structural advantages. Early voting begins shortly before the November 3 election, with recent debates highlighting differences on the economy and national security.