**Bulgaria's October 25 first-round presidential contest features incumbent Iliana Iotova, backed by Progressive Bulgaria and allied groups, against main challenger Andrey Gyurov, supported by PP-DB as a pro-EU reformist.** With 26+ registered candidate pairs and a two-round system requiring a majority or runoff, trader pricing reflects a fragmented field where no single margin band for either frontrunner dominates. An older July poll showed Iotova near 40% and Gyurov around 23%, but the absence of fresh surveys, the late start of the official campaign on September 25, and the broad independent field sustain high uncertainty around exact shares. Recent steps—candidate registrations closing September 22 and ballot numbers drawn September 23—have not shifted positioning, leaving the consensus on varied or non-listed outcomes as the clearest reflection of the open race.