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Politics·Midterms

MI-02 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MI-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Midterms

MI-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Benjamin Ambrose 67%

Clyde Welford 19%

Jamie Hill 18%

Polymarket
NEW

Benjamin Ambrose 67%

Clyde Welford 19%

Jamie Hill 18%

Polymarket
NEW

Benjamin Ambrose

$0 Vol.

67%

Clyde Welford

$0 Vol.

19%

Jamie Hill

$0 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Benjamin Ambrose leads the MI-02 Democratic primary market at 66.5% implied probability, well ahead of Clyde Welford and Jamie Hill, as traders price in his advantages ahead of the August 4, 2026 primary. A Marine Corps veteran with nearly 20 years of service and multiple combat tours, Ambrose has secured a key endorsement from the Detroit News and maintains higher reported fundraising totals compared with his opponents. Recent campaign activity, including a community town hall in Manistee, has reinforced visibility in the western Michigan district. Welford, a Lake County commissioner and former teacher, and Hill, a physician assistant, trail in market pricing amid limited polling data and fewer high-profile backers. The three-candidate field remains open until primary day, though Ambrose's profile and early momentum have driven the current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$0
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Benjamin Ambrose leads the MI-02 Democratic primary market at 66.5% implied probability, well ahead of Clyde Welford and Jamie Hill, as traders price in his advantages ahead of the August 4, 2026 primary. A Marine Corps veteran with nearly 20 years of service and multiple combat tours, Ambrose has secured a key endorsement from the Detroit News and maintains higher reported fundraising totals compared with his opponents. Recent campaign activity, including a community town hall in Manistee, has reinforced visibility in the western Michigan district. Welford, a Lake County commissioner and former teacher, and Hill, a physician assistant, trail in market pricing amid limited polling data and fewer high-profile backers. The three-candidate field remains open until primary day, though Ambrose's profile and early momentum have driven the current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$0
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Benjamin Ambrose" at 67%, followed by "Clyde Welford" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MI-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MI-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Benjamin Ambrose" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Clyde Welford" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.