Incumbent Salud Carbajal (D) holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district race, reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for Democrats. The district's D+13 partisan voting index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Carbajal's primary advancement with a majority of the vote underscore the structural advantage. Bob Smith (R), a retired Navy commander, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails significantly in a Central Coast area that favors Democratic candidates on turnout and voter registration. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A realistic shift would require a major national Republican surge, late scandal, or unexpected redistricting, none of which appear imminent ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
$44,631 Vol.
$44,631 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$44,631 Vol.
$44,631 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$26,759 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$17,872 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Salud Carbajal (D) holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district race, reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for Democrats. The district's D+13 partisan voting index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Carbajal's primary advancement with a majority of the vote underscore the structural advantage. Bob Smith (R), a retired Navy commander, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails significantly in a Central Coast area that favors Democratic candidates on turnout and voter registration. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A realistic shift would require a major national Republican surge, late scandal, or unexpected redistricting, none of which appear imminent ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$44,631End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Salud Carbajal (D) holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district race, reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for Democrats. The district's D+13 partisan voting index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Carbajal's primary advancement with a majority of the vote underscore the structural advantage. Bob Smith (R), a retired Navy commander, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails significantly in a Central Coast area that favors Democratic candidates on turnout and voter registration. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A realistic shift would require a major national Republican surge, late scandal, or unexpected redistricting, none of which appear imminent ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,631End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Salud Carbajal (D) holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district race, reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for Democrats. The district's D+13 partisan voting index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Carbajal's primary advancement with a majority of the vote underscore the structural advantage. Bob Smith (R), a retired Navy commander, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails significantly in a Central Coast area that favors Democratic candidates on turnout and voter registration. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A realistic shift would require a major national Republican surge, late scandal, or unexpected redistricting, none of which appear imminent ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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