New York's 21st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent Republican victories in recent cycles, including multiple re-elections for the prior incumbent. This structural advantage underpins the 69.5% Republican probability on prediction markets, as nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the November 3, 2026, general election as Solid Republican. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek a sixth term created an open seat, prompting a June 23 Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen and a Democratic primary featuring Blake Gendebien. While the contest remains early and subject to primary outcomes plus general-election turnout patterns, the district's voting history and partisan composition continue to shape trader assessments of the two-party matchup.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$23,867 Vol.
$23,867 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
66%
民主党
27%
$23,867 Vol.
$23,867 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$13,916 Vol.
66%
民主党
$9,950 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 21st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent Republican victories in recent cycles, including multiple re-elections for the prior incumbent. This structural advantage underpins the 69.5% Republican probability on prediction markets, as nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the November 3, 2026, general election as Solid Republican. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek a sixth term created an open seat, prompting a June 23 Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen and a Democratic primary featuring Blake Gendebien. While the contest remains early and subject to primary outcomes plus general-election turnout patterns, the district's voting history and partisan composition continue to shape trader assessments of the two-party matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$23,867終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 21st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent Republican victories in recent cycles, including multiple re-elections for the prior incumbent. This structural advantage underpins the 69.5% Republican probability on prediction markets, as nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the November 3, 2026, general election as Solid Republican. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek a sixth term created an open seat, prompting a June 23 Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen and a Democratic primary featuring Blake Gendebien. While the contest remains early and subject to primary outcomes plus general-election turnout patterns, the district's voting history and partisan composition continue to shape trader assessments of the two-party matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$23,867終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 21st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent Republican victories in recent cycles, including multiple re-elections for the prior incumbent. This structural advantage underpins the 69.5% Republican probability on prediction markets, as nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the November 3, 2026, general election as Solid Republican. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek a sixth term created an open seat, prompting a June 23 Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen and a Democratic primary featuring Blake Gendebien. While the contest remains early and subject to primary outcomes plus general-election turnout patterns, the district's voting history and partisan composition continue to shape trader assessments of the two-party matchup.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問