Incumbent Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district, a seat rated solid or safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, with a partisan voter index favoring the GOP. Tenney’s established record, uncontested Republican primary, and substantial fundraising edge—raising over $2 million with significant cash reserves—have reinforced trader consensus around her reelection prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, a veteran who advanced from her June primary, highlights affordability and veterans’ issues but faces structural headwinds in the district. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap in this low-uncertainty race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-24 House Election Winner
NY-24 House Election Winner
$20,577 Vol.
$20,577 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Claudia Tenney (R)
93%
Alissa Ellman (D)
8%
$20,577 Vol.
$20,577 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Claudia Tenney (R)
$10,938 Vol.
93%
Alissa Ellman (D)
$9,639 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district, a seat rated solid or safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, with a partisan voter index favoring the GOP. Tenney’s established record, uncontested Republican primary, and substantial fundraising edge—raising over $2 million with significant cash reserves—have reinforced trader consensus around her reelection prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, a veteran who advanced from her June primary, highlights affordability and veterans’ issues but faces structural headwinds in the district. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap in this low-uncertainty race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$20,577End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district, a seat rated solid or safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, with a partisan voter index favoring the GOP. Tenney’s established record, uncontested Republican primary, and substantial fundraising edge—raising over $2 million with significant cash reserves—have reinforced trader consensus around her reelection prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, a veteran who advanced from her June primary, highlights affordability and veterans’ issues but faces structural headwinds in the district. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap in this low-uncertainty race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,577End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district, a seat rated solid or safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, with a partisan voter index favoring the GOP. Tenney’s established record, uncontested Republican primary, and substantial fundraising edge—raising over $2 million with significant cash reserves—have reinforced trader consensus around her reelection prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, a veteran who advanced from her June primary, highlights affordability and veterans’ issues but faces structural headwinds in the district. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap in this low-uncertainty race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions