Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, consistently projected at 6–9 seats across multiple surveys, placing its implied national vote share near 5–7.5 percent. The party's finalized slate, which added a Haredi candidate and an international advocate to broaden appeal, has coincided with stable but not expanding support amid competition inside the right-wing bloc. Traders appear to weigh this positioning against Likud's own seat projections and surplus-vote agreements that could affect smaller parties' effective thresholds. No major late surge or drop has registered in the latest fieldwork from early September, leaving the 6.5–7.5 percent band as the central range in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.5-5.5% 39%
<4.5% 26%
7.5%+ 25%
5.5-6.5% 0
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
26%
4.5-5.5%
39%
5.5-6.5%
37%
6.5-7.5%
42%
7.5%+
25%
4.5-5.5% 39%
<4.5% 26%
7.5%+ 25%
5.5-6.5% 0
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
$13 Vol.
26%
4.5-5.5%
$13 Vol.
39%
5.5-6.5%
$78 Vol.
37%
6.5-7.5%
$114 Vol.
42%
7.5%+
$231 Vol.
25%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, consistently projected at 6–9 seats across multiple surveys, placing its implied national vote share near 5–7.5 percent. The party's finalized slate, which added a Haredi candidate and an international advocate to broaden appeal, has coincided with stable but not expanding support amid competition inside the right-wing bloc. Traders appear to weigh this positioning against Likud's own seat projections and surplus-vote agreements that could affect smaller parties' effective thresholds. No major late surge or drop has registered in the latest fieldwork from early September, leaving the 6.5–7.5 percent band as the central range in current market pricing.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$449End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, consistently projected at 6–9 seats across multiple surveys, placing its implied national vote share near 5–7.5 percent. The party's finalized slate, which added a Haredi candidate and an international advocate to broaden appeal, has coincided with stable but not expanding support amid competition inside the right-wing bloc. Traders appear to weigh this positioning against Likud's own seat projections and surplus-vote agreements that could affect smaller parties' effective thresholds. No major late surge or drop has registered in the latest fieldwork from early September, leaving the 6.5–7.5 percent band as the central range in current market pricing.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$449End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, consistently projected at 6–9 seats across multiple surveys, placing its implied national vote share near 5–7.5 percent. The party's finalized slate, which added a Haredi candidate and an international advocate to broaden appeal, has coincided with stable but not expanding support amid competition inside the right-wing bloc. Traders appear to weigh this positioning against Likud's own seat projections and surplus-vote agreements that could affect smaller parties' effective thresholds. No major late surge or drop has registered in the latest fieldwork from early September, leaving the 6.5–7.5 percent band as the central range in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions