Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election place United Torah Judaism near 7–8 seats, consistent with a 6–7% national vote share that aligns with the market's leading outcome. UTJ's support has remained stable in surveys from Kantar, Midgam, and others conducted in early-to-mid September, reflecting its core Ashkenazi Haredi electorate and limited crossover appeal. Internal negotiations over the party slate concluded days before the September 10 submission deadline, with Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael factions plus a new Belz-linked grouping finalizing positions under the joint list despite reported tensions. These developments have not produced measurable shifts in projected support. The fragmented overall race, with no bloc near 61 seats, leaves UTJ's exact threshold performance sensitive to turnout among religious voters and surplus-vote agreements in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6-7% 53%
5-6% 39%
7-8% 10%
<5% 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
7%
5-6%
36%
6-7%
53%
7-8%
12%
8%+
3%
6-7% 53%
5-6% 39%
7-8% 10%
<5% 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
$186 Vol.
7%
5-6%
$204 Vol.
36%
6-7%
$160 Vol.
53%
7-8%
$174 Vol.
12%
8%+
$290 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election place United Torah Judaism near 7–8 seats, consistent with a 6–7% national vote share that aligns with the market's leading outcome. UTJ's support has remained stable in surveys from Kantar, Midgam, and others conducted in early-to-mid September, reflecting its core Ashkenazi Haredi electorate and limited crossover appeal. Internal negotiations over the party slate concluded days before the September 10 submission deadline, with Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael factions plus a new Belz-linked grouping finalizing positions under the joint list despite reported tensions. These developments have not produced measurable shifts in projected support. The fragmented overall race, with no bloc near 61 seats, leaves UTJ's exact threshold performance sensitive to turnout among religious voters and surplus-vote agreements in the final weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,015End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election place United Torah Judaism near 7–8 seats, consistent with a 6–7% national vote share that aligns with the market's leading outcome. UTJ's support has remained stable in surveys from Kantar, Midgam, and others conducted in early-to-mid September, reflecting its core Ashkenazi Haredi electorate and limited crossover appeal. Internal negotiations over the party slate concluded days before the September 10 submission deadline, with Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael factions plus a new Belz-linked grouping finalizing positions under the joint list despite reported tensions. These developments have not produced measurable shifts in projected support. The fragmented overall race, with no bloc near 61 seats, leaves UTJ's exact threshold performance sensitive to turnout among religious voters and surplus-vote agreements in the final weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$1,015End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election place United Torah Judaism near 7–8 seats, consistent with a 6–7% national vote share that aligns with the market's leading outcome. UTJ's support has remained stable in surveys from Kantar, Midgam, and others conducted in early-to-mid September, reflecting its core Ashkenazi Haredi electorate and limited crossover appeal. Internal negotiations over the party slate concluded days before the September 10 submission deadline, with Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael factions plus a new Belz-linked grouping finalizing positions under the joint list despite reported tensions. These developments have not produced measurable shifts in projected support. The fragmented overall race, with no bloc near 61 seats, leaves UTJ's exact threshold performance sensitive to turnout among religious voters and surplus-vote agreements in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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