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icon for Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner
World·Tonga

Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner

icon for Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner
World·Tonga

Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner

'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana 56%

Sione Tuifio Hui 43%

'Aisake Hoatatau Finau 41%

Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala 37%

Polymarket
NEW

'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana 56%

Sione Tuifio Hui 43%

'Aisake Hoatatau Finau 41%

Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala 37%

Polymarket
NEW

'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana

$20 Vol.

56%

Sione Tuifio Hui

$20 Vol.

43%

'Aisake Hoatatau Finau

$20 Vol.

41%

Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala

$20 Vol.

37%

Sitiveni Selui

$20 Vol.

25%

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Ongo Niua 17 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Ongo Niua 17 by-election on 8 October follows the Supreme Court’s voiding of the prior MP’s 2025 victory on bribery grounds, opening a five-candidate contest among village-based independents: ‘Aminiasi Tonga Pau’u Tangimana, ‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau, Paea ‘i Vaha Filimoehala, Sione Tuifio Hui, and Sitiveni Selui. Trader consensus prices the field tightly because the small Niuas electorate typically divides support along village and kinship lines, with no dominant frontrunner emerging after nominations closed in early September. Recent court rulings and candidate registrations have kept volatility low, while the absence of polling data or major endorsements leaves probabilities sensitive to turnout patterns and late campaign developments that could consolidate or fragment village blocs before election day.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Ongo Niua 17 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Ongo Niua 17 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$100
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Ongo Niua 17 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Ongo Niua 17 by-election on 8 October follows the Supreme Court’s voiding of the prior MP’s 2025 victory on bribery grounds, opening a five-candidate contest among village-based independents: ‘Aminiasi Tonga Pau’u Tangimana, ‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau, Paea ‘i Vaha Filimoehala, Sione Tuifio Hui, and Sitiveni Selui. Trader consensus prices the field tightly because the small Niuas electorate typically divides support along village and kinship lines, with no dominant frontrunner emerging after nominations closed in early September. Recent court rulings and candidate registrations have kept volatility low, while the absence of polling data or major endorsements leaves probabilities sensitive to turnout patterns and late campaign developments that could consolidate or fragment village blocs before election day.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Ongo Niua 17 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Ongo Niua 17 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$100
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana" at 56%, followed by "Sione Tuifio Hui" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner" is "'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sione Tuifio Hui" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ongo Niua 17 By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.