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icon for Mulka By-Election Winner
World·Australia

Mulka By-Election Winner

icon for Mulka By-Election Winner
World·Australia

Mulka By-Election Winner

Polymarket
NEW
Polymarket
NEW
icon for Yiwarr McGrath

Yiwarr McGrath

$1,207 Vol.

96%

icon for Andrew Blamey

Andrew Blamey

$825 Vol.

<1%

A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).Yiwarr McGrath holds a commanding lead in the Mulka by-election market after Territory Labor preselected the local Yolŋu registered nurse and former NT Young Australian of the Year on August 25 to contest the September 12 vote. The seat became vacant following independent Yiŋiya Mark Guyula’s mid-August resignation in protest against the CLP government’s policies. McGrath’s community ties, focus on healthcare access in East Arnhem Land’s remote Indigenous-majority electorate, and positioning to continue Guyula’s legacy have consolidated support in a short campaign where Labor faces only independent Andrew Blamey as a declared rival. Traders reflect this through the frontrunner’s implied probability near 96 percent, though an unexpected surge by another independent or late shifts in preferences among the electorate’s dispersed communities remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the outcome.

A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,032
End Date
Sep 12, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://ntec.nt.gov.au/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).
A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).Yiwarr McGrath holds a commanding lead in the Mulka by-election market after Territory Labor preselected the local Yolŋu registered nurse and former NT Young Australian of the Year on August 25 to contest the September 12 vote. The seat became vacant following independent Yiŋiya Mark Guyula’s mid-August resignation in protest against the CLP government’s policies. McGrath’s community ties, focus on healthcare access in East Arnhem Land’s remote Indigenous-majority electorate, and positioning to continue Guyula’s legacy have consolidated support in a short campaign where Labor faces only independent Andrew Blamey as a declared rival. Traders reflect this through the frontrunner’s implied probability near 96 percent, though an unexpected surge by another independent or late shifts in preferences among the electorate’s dispersed communities remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the outcome.

A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).
Volume
$2,032
End Date
Sep 12, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://ntec.nt.gov.au/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mulka By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yiwarr McGrath" at 96%, followed by "Andrew Blamey" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Mulka By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Mulka By-Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mulka By-Election Winner" is "Yiwarr McGrath" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Andrew Blamey" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mulka By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.