Recent polls ahead of Victoria’s November 28 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition often leading or close on 22–32 percent, One Nation surging to 22–29 percent under new state leader Warren Pickering, Labor slipping to 23–28 percent, and the Greens around 12–15 percent. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no sustained bounce in support or preferred-premier ratings. Seat projections from MRP and other modeling indicate the Coalition is best placed for the most seats, followed by Labor retaining a sizable base through preference flows and electorate distribution, while One Nation gains remain more variable. These dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring Labor as the clear second-place finisher behind a likely Coalition plurality or narrow win. Upper-house trends and ongoing preference uncertainty continue to shape positioning as the campaign intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLabor 70%
Liberal–National 28%
One Nation 8%
Greens <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
70%
Liberal–National
28%
One Nation
8%
Greens
1%
Labor 70%
Liberal–National 28%
One Nation 8%
Greens <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
$784 Vol.
70%
Liberal–National
$233 Vol.
28%
One Nation
$410 Vol.
8%
Greens
$208 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polls ahead of Victoria’s November 28 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition often leading or close on 22–32 percent, One Nation surging to 22–29 percent under new state leader Warren Pickering, Labor slipping to 23–28 percent, and the Greens around 12–15 percent. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no sustained bounce in support or preferred-premier ratings. Seat projections from MRP and other modeling indicate the Coalition is best placed for the most seats, followed by Labor retaining a sizable base through preference flows and electorate distribution, while One Nation gains remain more variable. These dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring Labor as the clear second-place finisher behind a likely Coalition plurality or narrow win. Upper-house trends and ongoing preference uncertainty continue to shape positioning as the campaign intensifies.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$1,634End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polls ahead of Victoria’s November 28 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition often leading or close on 22–32 percent, One Nation surging to 22–29 percent under new state leader Warren Pickering, Labor slipping to 23–28 percent, and the Greens around 12–15 percent. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no sustained bounce in support or preferred-premier ratings. Seat projections from MRP and other modeling indicate the Coalition is best placed for the most seats, followed by Labor retaining a sizable base through preference flows and electorate distribution, while One Nation gains remain more variable. These dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring Labor as the clear second-place finisher behind a likely Coalition plurality or narrow win. Upper-house trends and ongoing preference uncertainty continue to shape positioning as the campaign intensifies.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$1,634End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Victoria’s November 28 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition often leading or close on 22–32 percent, One Nation surging to 22–29 percent under new state leader Warren Pickering, Labor slipping to 23–28 percent, and the Greens around 12–15 percent. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no sustained bounce in support or preferred-premier ratings. Seat projections from MRP and other modeling indicate the Coalition is best placed for the most seats, followed by Labor retaining a sizable base through preference flows and electorate distribution, while One Nation gains remain more variable. These dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring Labor as the clear second-place finisher behind a likely Coalition plurality or narrow win. Upper-house trends and ongoing preference uncertainty continue to shape positioning as the campaign intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
63%
Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
80%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
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