Recent polling from September and early October 2026 shows the Liberal-National Coalition maintaining a narrow lead over Labor on two-party preferred measures around 52-48 to 53-47, with primary votes placing the Coalition near 29-30%, Labor at 24-25%, One Nation at 20-22%, and the Greens at 14%. These trends, combined with the August 2026 abolition of group voting tickets in the Legislative Council, have shaped trader assessments, as the new requirement for voters to number at least five preferences reduces the influence of prior preference-harvesting arrangements that benefited smaller parties. One Nation's rising support has drawn attention in regional upper-house areas, yet the Coalition's position across the eight regions supports its leading implied probability for securing the most seats. Labor faces internal preselection pressures ahead of nominations closing in November, while the overall contest remains sensitive to final preference flows and turnout in the November 28 election.