Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows primary vote shares tightly clustered among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation, with the latter surging into contention around 22-27% while Labor has slipped in several surveys and the Greens hold steady near 12-15%. This three-way split on first preferences, alongside a sizable fragmented "others" vote, keeps the contest for third place highly uncertain and sustains similar market pricing across multiple parties. Recent leadership transitions within Labor, passage of electoral reforms ending group voting tickets, and by-election results highlighting One Nation strength have reinforced volatility without establishing a clear ordering. Further statewide polls, candidate announcements, or shifts in minor-party support ahead of the November ballot could widen gaps among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVictoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Labor 87%
Liberal–National 87%
Greens 87%
One Nation 87%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
87%
Liberal–National
87%
Greens
87%
One Nation
87%
Legalise Cannabis
87%
Animal Justice
87%
Libertarian
87%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
87%
Labor 87%
Liberal–National 87%
Greens 87%
One Nation 87%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
$0 Vol.
87%
Liberal–National
$0 Vol.
87%
Greens
$0 Vol.
87%
One Nation
$0 Vol.
87%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 Vol.
87%
Animal Justice
$0 Vol.
87%
Libertarian
$0 Vol.
87%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 Vol.
87%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows primary vote shares tightly clustered among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation, with the latter surging into contention around 22-27% while Labor has slipped in several surveys and the Greens hold steady near 12-15%. This three-way split on first preferences, alongside a sizable fragmented "others" vote, keeps the contest for third place highly uncertain and sustains similar market pricing across multiple parties. Recent leadership transitions within Labor, passage of electoral reforms ending group voting tickets, and by-election results highlighting One Nation strength have reinforced volatility without establishing a clear ordering. Further statewide polls, candidate announcements, or shifts in minor-party support ahead of the November ballot could widen gaps among the contenders.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows primary vote shares tightly clustered among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation, with the latter surging into contention around 22-27% while Labor has slipped in several surveys and the Greens hold steady near 12-15%. This three-way split on first preferences, alongside a sizable fragmented "others" vote, keeps the contest for third place highly uncertain and sustains similar market pricing across multiple parties. Recent leadership transitions within Labor, passage of electoral reforms ending group voting tickets, and by-election results highlighting One Nation strength have reinforced volatility without establishing a clear ordering. Further statewide polls, candidate announcements, or shifts in minor-party support ahead of the November ballot could widen gaps among the contenders.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows primary vote shares tightly clustered among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation, with the latter surging into contention around 22-27% while Labor has slipped in several surveys and the Greens hold steady near 12-15%. This three-way split on first preferences, alongside a sizable fragmented "others" vote, keeps the contest for third place highly uncertain and sustains similar market pricing across multiple parties. Recent leadership transitions within Labor, passage of electoral reforms ending group voting tickets, and by-election results highlighting One Nation strength have reinforced volatility without establishing a clear ordering. Further statewide polls, candidate announcements, or shifts in minor-party support ahead of the November ballot could widen gaps among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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