Recent polling volatility around Amcha Yisrael reflects its narrow positioning near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August drawing support primarily from voters seeking fresh security-focused leadership and broader Zionist coalitions. Its independent run after rejecting a merger with Religious Zionism has fragmented right-wing votes alongside other small lists, including the RZP-Zehut technical bloc and emerging centrist slates, keeping outcomes tightly contested between sub-threshold results and low single-digit shares. Traders price this range amid ongoing bloc realignments ahead of the October 27 election, where modest shifts in turnout among nationalist or reservist voters or additional list negotiations could push the party above or further below key benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.25-4% 44%
2.5-3.25% 39%
4-5% 39%
5%+ 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
42%
2.5-3.25%
39%
3.25-4%
44%
4-5%
39%
5%+
26%
3.25-4% 44%
2.5-3.25% 39%
4-5% 39%
5%+ 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$20 Vol.
42%
2.5-3.25%
$0 Vol.
39%
3.25-4%
$0 Vol.
44%
4-5%
$0 Vol.
39%
5%+
$0 Vol.
26%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling volatility around Amcha Yisrael reflects its narrow positioning near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August drawing support primarily from voters seeking fresh security-focused leadership and broader Zionist coalitions. Its independent run after rejecting a merger with Religious Zionism has fragmented right-wing votes alongside other small lists, including the RZP-Zehut technical bloc and emerging centrist slates, keeping outcomes tightly contested between sub-threshold results and low single-digit shares. Traders price this range amid ongoing bloc realignments ahead of the October 27 election, where modest shifts in turnout among nationalist or reservist voters or additional list negotiations could push the party above or further below key benchmarks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling volatility around Amcha Yisrael reflects its narrow positioning near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August drawing support primarily from voters seeking fresh security-focused leadership and broader Zionist coalitions. Its independent run after rejecting a merger with Religious Zionism has fragmented right-wing votes alongside other small lists, including the RZP-Zehut technical bloc and emerging centrist slates, keeping outcomes tightly contested between sub-threshold results and low single-digit shares. Traders price this range amid ongoing bloc realignments ahead of the October 27 election, where modest shifts in turnout among nationalist or reservist voters or additional list negotiations could push the party above or further below key benchmarks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$20End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling volatility around Amcha Yisrael reflects its narrow positioning near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, with the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August drawing support primarily from voters seeking fresh security-focused leadership and broader Zionist coalitions. Its independent run after rejecting a merger with Religious Zionism has fragmented right-wing votes alongside other small lists, including the RZP-Zehut technical bloc and emerging centrist slates, keeping outcomes tightly contested between sub-threshold results and low single-digit shares. Traders price this range amid ongoing bloc realignments ahead of the October 27 election, where modest shifts in turnout among nationalist or reservist voters or additional list negotiations could push the party above or further below key benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions