Incumbent Democratic Representative Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 race due to the district’s strong partisan lean and his established voter base following a decisive 2024 victory. Primary contests scheduled for June 2026 feature limited opposition, with Republican Dennis Hannon positioned as the main general-election challenger. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns in similarly safe seats, where incumbency and district demographics typically deliver wide margins. Potential shifts remain possible through a national Republican wave, unexpected primary dynamics, or late developments affecting turnout among key voting blocs, though such factors have shown limited impact in this district over recent cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-26 House Election Winner
NY-26 House Election Winner
$24,405 Vol.
$24,405 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
$24,405 Vol.
$24,405 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,910 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$11,495 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 race due to the district’s strong partisan lean and his established voter base following a decisive 2024 victory. Primary contests scheduled for June 2026 feature limited opposition, with Republican Dennis Hannon positioned as the main general-election challenger. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns in similarly safe seats, where incumbency and district demographics typically deliver wide margins. Potential shifts remain possible through a national Republican wave, unexpected primary dynamics, or late developments affecting turnout among key voting blocs, though such factors have shown limited impact in this district over recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$24,405End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 race due to the district’s strong partisan lean and his established voter base following a decisive 2024 victory. Primary contests scheduled for June 2026 feature limited opposition, with Republican Dennis Hannon positioned as the main general-election challenger. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns in similarly safe seats, where incumbency and district demographics typically deliver wide margins. Potential shifts remain possible through a national Republican wave, unexpected primary dynamics, or late developments affecting turnout among key voting blocs, though such factors have shown limited impact in this district over recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,405End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 race due to the district’s strong partisan lean and his established voter base following a decisive 2024 victory. Primary contests scheduled for June 2026 feature limited opposition, with Republican Dennis Hannon positioned as the main general-election challenger. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns in similarly safe seats, where incumbency and district demographics typically deliver wide margins. Potential shifts remain possible through a national Republican wave, unexpected primary dynamics, or late developments affecting turnout among key voting blocs, though such factors have shown limited impact in this district over recent cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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