Illinois' 4th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold, with trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 96.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner, driven by its consistent 70%+ Democratic margins in recent cycles and minority-majority electorate in Chicago's West and Northwest Sides. Retiring incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García endorsed chief of staff Patty García, who secured the March 17 Democratic primary nomination decisively, further solidified by her May 12 backing from the Congressional Progressive Caucus. No competitive Republican emerged from primaries, per FEC filings and race ratings. Challengers would require a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented national GOP midterm wave, or depressed Democratic turnout in this safe seat to shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$43,347 Vol.
$43,347 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
4%
$43,347 Vol.
$43,347 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$28,893 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$14,454 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois' 4th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold, with trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 96.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner, driven by its consistent 70%+ Democratic margins in recent cycles and minority-majority electorate in Chicago's West and Northwest Sides. Retiring incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García endorsed chief of staff Patty García, who secured the March 17 Democratic primary nomination decisively, further solidified by her May 12 backing from the Congressional Progressive Caucus. No competitive Republican emerged from primaries, per FEC filings and race ratings. Challengers would require a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented national GOP midterm wave, or depressed Democratic turnout in this safe seat to shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$43,347End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois' 4th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold, with trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 96.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner, driven by its consistent 70%+ Democratic margins in recent cycles and minority-majority electorate in Chicago's West and Northwest Sides. Retiring incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García endorsed chief of staff Patty García, who secured the March 17 Democratic primary nomination decisively, further solidified by her May 12 backing from the Congressional Progressive Caucus. No competitive Republican emerged from primaries, per FEC filings and race ratings. Challengers would require a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented national GOP midterm wave, or depressed Democratic turnout in this safe seat to shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,347End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois' 4th Congressional District remains a Democratic stronghold, with trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 96.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election winner, driven by its consistent 70%+ Democratic margins in recent cycles and minority-majority electorate in Chicago's West and Northwest Sides. Retiring incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García endorsed chief of staff Patty García, who secured the March 17 Democratic primary nomination decisively, further solidified by her May 12 backing from the Congressional Progressive Caucus. No competitive Republican emerged from primaries, per FEC filings and race ratings. Challengers would require a major Democratic scandal, unprecedented national GOP midterm wave, or depressed Democratic turnout in this safe seat to shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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