The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs including Cicero and Berwyn. The open-seat race following incumbent Chuy García’s retirement features Democratic nominee Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe Castillo, with multiple forecasters rating the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Recent developments, including the removal of independent candidates from the November 2026 ballot and Garcia’s primary performance amid several Democratic contenders, have reinforced the party’s structural advantage. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican upset would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or late-breaking events capable of overcoming the area’s established voting patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$58,090 Vol.
$58,090 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$58,090 Vol.
$58,090 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$42,282 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$15,808 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs including Cicero and Berwyn. The open-seat race following incumbent Chuy García’s retirement features Democratic nominee Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe Castillo, with multiple forecasters rating the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Recent developments, including the removal of independent candidates from the November 2026 ballot and Garcia’s primary performance amid several Democratic contenders, have reinforced the party’s structural advantage. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican upset would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or late-breaking events capable of overcoming the area’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$58,090End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs including Cicero and Berwyn. The open-seat race following incumbent Chuy García’s retirement features Democratic nominee Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe Castillo, with multiple forecasters rating the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Recent developments, including the removal of independent candidates from the November 2026 ballot and Garcia’s primary performance amid several Democratic contenders, have reinforced the party’s structural advantage. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican upset would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or late-breaking events capable of overcoming the area’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$58,090End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs including Cicero and Berwyn. The open-seat race following incumbent Chuy García’s retirement features Democratic nominee Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe Castillo, with multiple forecasters rating the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Recent developments, including the removal of independent candidates from the November 2026 ballot and Garcia’s primary performance amid several Democratic contenders, have reinforced the party’s structural advantage. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican upset would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or late-breaking events capable of overcoming the area’s established voting patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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