Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding lead in the NY-20 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long tenure since 2013 and the absence of a contested primary challenge. Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio faces structural headwinds in this Albany-area seat, where recent election cycles and partisan voting patterns have favored Democrats by wide margins. Prediction market pricing captures broad trader consensus on these fundamentals ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-20 House Election Winner
NY-20 House Election Winner
$34,940 Vol.
$34,940 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$34,940 Vol.
$34,940 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,177 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$18,762 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding lead in the NY-20 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long tenure since 2013 and the absence of a contested primary challenge. Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio faces structural headwinds in this Albany-area seat, where recent election cycles and partisan voting patterns have favored Democrats by wide margins. Prediction market pricing captures broad trader consensus on these fundamentals ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$34,940End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding lead in the NY-20 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long tenure since 2013 and the absence of a contested primary challenge. Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio faces structural headwinds in this Albany-area seat, where recent election cycles and partisan voting patterns have favored Democrats by wide margins. Prediction market pricing captures broad trader consensus on these fundamentals ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,940End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding lead in the NY-20 House race due to the district’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long tenure since 2013 and the absence of a contested primary challenge. Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio faces structural headwinds in this Albany-area seat, where recent election cycles and partisan voting patterns have favored Democrats by wide margins. Prediction market pricing captures broad trader consensus on these fundamentals ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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