**Trader sentiment for the number of independents elected to Congress in 2026 remains closely divided between zero and one, reflecting both a notable increase in independent candidacies and persistent structural barriers in the U.S. electoral system.** Dozens of independents are on ballots across House and Senate races, with several high-profile bids—including in Nebraska, Idaho, Montana, Alaska, and California—drawing attention for polling competitiveness or primary advances amid voter frustration with the two major parties. Incumbent independent Kevin Kiley continues his re-election effort after switching affiliations earlier in the cycle, while others benefit from emerging support networks. However, historical success rates for non-major-party candidates stay low due to ballot access rules, fundraising gaps, and the winner-take-all district system. The November 3 election timeline, combined with ongoing polling volatility in key contests, keeps probabilities tight as traders weigh whether any of these bids can overcome entrenched partisan advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 28%
4+ 26%
0 22%
2 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
0
22%
1
28%
2
16%
3
14%
4+
26%
1 28%
4+ 26%
0 22%
2 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
0
$42 Vol.
22%
1
$144 Vol.
28%
2
$20 Vol.
16%
3
$0 Vol.
14%
4+
$63 Vol.
26%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected.
The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market.
In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader sentiment for the number of independents elected to Congress in 2026 remains closely divided between zero and one, reflecting both a notable increase in independent candidacies and persistent structural barriers in the U.S. electoral system.**
Dozens of independents are on ballots across House and Senate races, with several high-profile bids—including in Nebraska, Idaho, Montana, Alaska, and California—drawing attention for polling competitiveness or primary advances amid voter frustration with the two major parties. Incumbent independent Kevin Kiley continues his re-election effort after switching affiliations earlier in the cycle, while others benefit from emerging support networks. However, historical success rates for non-major-party candidates stay low due to ballot access rules, fundraising gaps, and the winner-take-all district system. The November 3 election timeline, combined with ongoing polling volatility in key contests, keeps probabilities tight as traders weigh whether any of these bids can overcome entrenched partisan advantages.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected.
The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market.
In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected.
The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market.
In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Volume
$269End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected.
The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market.
In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader sentiment for the number of independents elected to Congress in 2026 remains closely divided between zero and one, reflecting both a notable increase in independent candidacies and persistent structural barriers in the U.S. electoral system.**
Dozens of independents are on ballots across House and Senate races, with several high-profile bids—including in Nebraska, Idaho, Montana, Alaska, and California—drawing attention for polling competitiveness or primary advances amid voter frustration with the two major parties. Incumbent independent Kevin Kiley continues his re-election effort after switching affiliations earlier in the cycle, while others benefit from emerging support networks. However, historical success rates for non-major-party candidates stay low due to ballot access rules, fundraising gaps, and the winner-take-all district system. The November 3 election timeline, combined with ongoing polling volatility in key contests, keeps probabilities tight as traders weigh whether any of these bids can overcome entrenched partisan advantages.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected.
The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market.
In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected.
The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market.
In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$269End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...**Trader sentiment for the number of independents elected to Congress in 2026 remains closely divided between zero and one, reflecting both a notable increase in independent candidacies and persistent structural barriers in the U.S. electoral system.** Dozens of independents are on ballots across House and Senate races, with several high-profile bids—including in Nebraska, Idaho, Montana, Alaska, and California—drawing attention for polling competitiveness or primary advances amid voter frustration with the two major parties. Incumbent independent Kevin Kiley continues his re-election effort after switching affiliations earlier in the cycle, while others benefit from emerging support networks. However, historical success rates for non-major-party candidates stay low due to ballot access rules, fundraising gaps, and the winner-take-all district system. The November 3 election timeline, combined with ongoing polling volatility in key contests, keeps probabilities tight as traders weigh whether any of these bids can overcome entrenched partisan advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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