Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance in federal contests and his established record as a three-term senator. No Democrat has won an Idaho Senate seat since 1974, and Risch secured his party's nomination comfortably in the May primary while maintaining substantial fundraising advantages. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after weak fundraising, leaving independent Todd Achilles—who resigned his state House seat to run—as the primary challenger appealing to unaffiliated voters. Polling aggregates show Risch ahead by double digits, aligning with the state's partisan fundamentals and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include significant shifts in national conditions, unexpected turnout surges among independents, or major campaign developments in the final weeks before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 96.0%
Democrat 2.3%
Todd Achilles (I) 1.0%
$32,887 Vol.
$32,887 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
2%
Todd Achilles (I)
1%
Republican 96.0%
Democrat 2.3%
Todd Achilles (I) 1.0%
$32,887 Vol.
$32,887 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$18,325 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$14,387 Vol.
2%
Todd Achilles (I)
$175 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance in federal contests and his established record as a three-term senator. No Democrat has won an Idaho Senate seat since 1974, and Risch secured his party's nomination comfortably in the May primary while maintaining substantial fundraising advantages. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after weak fundraising, leaving independent Todd Achilles—who resigned his state House seat to run—as the primary challenger appealing to unaffiliated voters. Polling aggregates show Risch ahead by double digits, aligning with the state's partisan fundamentals and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include significant shifts in national conditions, unexpected turnout surges among independents, or major campaign developments in the final weeks before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$32,887End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance in federal contests and his established record as a three-term senator. No Democrat has won an Idaho Senate seat since 1974, and Risch secured his party's nomination comfortably in the May primary while maintaining substantial fundraising advantages. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after weak fundraising, leaving independent Todd Achilles—who resigned his state House seat to run—as the primary challenger appealing to unaffiliated voters. Polling aggregates show Risch ahead by double digits, aligning with the state's partisan fundamentals and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include significant shifts in national conditions, unexpected turnout surges among independents, or major campaign developments in the final weeks before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$32,887End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance in federal contests and his established record as a three-term senator. No Democrat has won an Idaho Senate seat since 1974, and Risch secured his party's nomination comfortably in the May primary while maintaining substantial fundraising advantages. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after weak fundraising, leaving independent Todd Achilles—who resigned his state House seat to run—as the primary challenger appealing to unaffiliated voters. Polling aggregates show Risch ahead by double digits, aligning with the state's partisan fundamentals and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include significant shifts in national conditions, unexpected turnout surges among independents, or major campaign developments in the final weeks before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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