Minnesota's Democratic lean and the recent August 11 primaries have solidified Peggy Flanagan's position as the nominee for the open U.S. Senate seat, driving trader consensus toward a strong advantage in the November general election. As lieutenant governor since 2019, Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination with roughly 59% against Representative Angie Craig, backed by party endorsements and positioning as a progressive voice who could become the first Native American woman in the Senate. Michele Tafoya's Republican primary victory as a former sports broadcaster faces the structural challenge of competing in a state where Democrats have held both Senate seats and maintained federal-level strength. While current pricing reflects this baseline, late developments such as major scandals, health events, or shifts in national political conditions could still alter the trajectory before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$43,250 Vol.
$43,250 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
93%
Michele Tafoya (R)
8%
$43,250 Vol.
$43,250 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
$28,154 Vol.
93%
Michele Tafoya (R)
$15,096 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's Democratic lean and the recent August 11 primaries have solidified Peggy Flanagan's position as the nominee for the open U.S. Senate seat, driving trader consensus toward a strong advantage in the November general election. As lieutenant governor since 2019, Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination with roughly 59% against Representative Angie Craig, backed by party endorsements and positioning as a progressive voice who could become the first Native American woman in the Senate. Michele Tafoya's Republican primary victory as a former sports broadcaster faces the structural challenge of competing in a state where Democrats have held both Senate seats and maintained federal-level strength. While current pricing reflects this baseline, late developments such as major scandals, health events, or shifts in national political conditions could still alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$43,250End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's Democratic lean and the recent August 11 primaries have solidified Peggy Flanagan's position as the nominee for the open U.S. Senate seat, driving trader consensus toward a strong advantage in the November general election. As lieutenant governor since 2019, Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination with roughly 59% against Representative Angie Craig, backed by party endorsements and positioning as a progressive voice who could become the first Native American woman in the Senate. Michele Tafoya's Republican primary victory as a former sports broadcaster faces the structural challenge of competing in a state where Democrats have held both Senate seats and maintained federal-level strength. While current pricing reflects this baseline, late developments such as major scandals, health events, or shifts in national political conditions could still alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$43,250End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's Democratic lean and the recent August 11 primaries have solidified Peggy Flanagan's position as the nominee for the open U.S. Senate seat, driving trader consensus toward a strong advantage in the November general election. As lieutenant governor since 2019, Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination with roughly 59% against Representative Angie Craig, backed by party endorsements and positioning as a progressive voice who could become the first Native American woman in the Senate. Michele Tafoya's Republican primary victory as a former sports broadcaster faces the structural challenge of competing in a state where Democrats have held both Senate seats and maintained federal-level strength. While current pricing reflects this baseline, late developments such as major scandals, health events, or shifts in national political conditions could still alter the trajectory before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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