The commanding Democratic advantage in California's 11th congressional district reflects the area's longstanding partisan lean, where the party has secured over 80 percent of the general election vote in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after nearly four decades has triggered a crowded June 2 top-two primary featuring multiple Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, former congressional chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti, and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, but the nonpartisan structure and district composition make a Republican advance to November highly unlikely. Forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic, consistent with the current trader consensus. A late scandal involving the eventual Democratic nominee or an unforeseen shift in turnout patterns among key voter blocs could introduce modest uncertainty before the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,297 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$701 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The commanding Democratic advantage in California's 11th congressional district reflects the area's longstanding partisan lean, where the party has secured over 80 percent of the general election vote in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after nearly four decades has triggered a crowded June 2 top-two primary featuring multiple Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, former congressional chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti, and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, but the nonpartisan structure and district composition make a Republican advance to November highly unlikely. Forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic, consistent with the current trader consensus. A late scandal involving the eventual Democratic nominee or an unforeseen shift in turnout patterns among key voter blocs could introduce modest uncertainty before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,998End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The commanding Democratic advantage in California's 11th congressional district reflects the area's longstanding partisan lean, where the party has secured over 80 percent of the general election vote in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after nearly four decades has triggered a crowded June 2 top-two primary featuring multiple Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, former congressional chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti, and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, but the nonpartisan structure and district composition make a Republican advance to November highly unlikely. Forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic, consistent with the current trader consensus. A late scandal involving the eventual Democratic nominee or an unforeseen shift in turnout patterns among key voter blocs could introduce modest uncertainty before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,998End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The commanding Democratic advantage in California's 11th congressional district reflects the area's longstanding partisan lean, where the party has secured over 80 percent of the general election vote in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after nearly four decades has triggered a crowded June 2 top-two primary featuring multiple Democratic contenders, including state Senator Scott Wiener, former congressional chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti, and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, but the nonpartisan structure and district composition make a Republican advance to November highly unlikely. Forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic, consistent with the current trader consensus. A late scandal involving the eventual Democratic nominee or an unforeseen shift in turnout patterns among key voter blocs could introduce modest uncertainty before the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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