Minnesota's 4th congressional district, centered on Saint Paul and surrounding areas in the Twin Cities metro, maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in recent election results and partisan voting indexes. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured the Democratic nomination with over 85 percent in the August 11 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum's prior margins above 65 percent. Trader consensus on the Democratic outcome aligns with the district's structural advantages, long-term incumbency, and absence of competitive primary or general-election dynamics. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic paths to an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-04 House Election Winner
MN-04 House Election Winner
$21,291 Vol.
$21,291 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$21,291 Vol.
$21,291 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,902 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$17,390 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district, centered on Saint Paul and surrounding areas in the Twin Cities metro, maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in recent election results and partisan voting indexes. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured the Democratic nomination with over 85 percent in the August 11 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum's prior margins above 65 percent. Trader consensus on the Democratic outcome aligns with the district's structural advantages, long-term incumbency, and absence of competitive primary or general-election dynamics. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$21,291End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district, centered on Saint Paul and surrounding areas in the Twin Cities metro, maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in recent election results and partisan voting indexes. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured the Democratic nomination with over 85 percent in the August 11 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum's prior margins above 65 percent. Trader consensus on the Democratic outcome aligns with the district's structural advantages, long-term incumbency, and absence of competitive primary or general-election dynamics. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,291End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 4th congressional district, centered on Saint Paul and surrounding areas in the Twin Cities metro, maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in recent election results and partisan voting indexes. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured the Democratic nomination with over 85 percent in the August 11 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum's prior margins above 65 percent. Trader consensus on the Democratic outcome aligns with the district's structural advantages, long-term incumbency, and absence of competitive primary or general-election dynamics. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic paths to an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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