Matt Little’s commanding lead in the MN-02 House race stems from his August 2026 Democratic primary victory in an open seat previously held by Rep. Angie Craig, combined with the district’s shift toward a more reliable Democratic lean after Trump carried it by just 3.5 points in 2024. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing Little’s prior roles as Lakeville mayor and state senator, broad party endorsements, and recent debate performances emphasizing opposition to Trump-era policies on tariffs, immigration, and the Iran conflict. Eric Pratt, the unopposed Republican nominee and current state senator, trails amid limited national investment in the race. Traders price Little above 90 percent because polling averages and fundamentals show a double-digit margin, though late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp turnout swings in suburban precincts could still narrow the gap before November 3.