**Montana’s open Senate seat features Republican Kurt Alme holding a consistent double-digit lead in recent polling averages (roughly 42% to independent Seth Bodnar’s 28% and Democrat Alani Bankhead’s 19%), producing an expected margin near 14 points.** New Jersey’s contest pits incumbent Democrat Cory Booker against Republican Justin Murphy in a state with a strong Democratic tilt and no recent general-election surveys showing a competitive race; forecasters project a roughly 19-point Democratic margin. The Montana race’s narrower projected spread, driven by the open-seat dynamic and vote splitting on the left, accounts for trader consensus favoring it as the closer contest. Both races remain rated safe or solid for their favored party, with no late developments altering the structural outlook ahead of November.