The Maryland 2nd congressional district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index and strong Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of a Democratic victory. Incumbent Johnny Olszewski secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 85% of the vote and now faces Republican nominee Dave Wallace, a perennial candidate who prevailed in a low-turnout GOP primary. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited crossover appeal and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments since the primaries. Late-cycle events such as an unexpected scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the trajectory before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-02 House Election Winner
MD-02 House Election Winner
$16,320 Vol.
$16,320 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$16,320 Vol.
$16,320 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,396 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$3,925 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Maryland 2nd congressional district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index and strong Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of a Democratic victory. Incumbent Johnny Olszewski secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 85% of the vote and now faces Republican nominee Dave Wallace, a perennial candidate who prevailed in a low-turnout GOP primary. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited crossover appeal and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments since the primaries. Late-cycle events such as an unexpected scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the trajectory before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$16,320End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Maryland 2nd congressional district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index and strong Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of a Democratic victory. Incumbent Johnny Olszewski secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 85% of the vote and now faces Republican nominee Dave Wallace, a perennial candidate who prevailed in a low-turnout GOP primary. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited crossover appeal and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments since the primaries. Late-cycle events such as an unexpected scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the trajectory before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,320End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Maryland 2nd congressional district’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index and strong Democratic performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of a Democratic victory. Incumbent Johnny Olszewski secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 85% of the vote and now faces Republican nominee Dave Wallace, a perennial candidate who prevailed in a low-turnout GOP primary. Race ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited crossover appeal and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments since the primaries. Late-cycle events such as an unexpected scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the trajectory before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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