Michigan stands out among the tossup Senate races due to its open seat after Sen. Gary Peters's retirement, positioning it as Democrats' strongest opportunity in a narrowly decided 2024 presidential state. Post-August primary polling has shown Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed remaining competitive against Republican Mike Rogers, with recent surveys indicating tight margins that sustain trader focus on the race as the clearest Democratic hold or lean. Alaska follows as a notable contender, where former Rep. Mary Peltola advanced strongly from the August top-four primary against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, reflecting sustained Democratic viability in the ranked-choice environment. Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas register lower probabilities amid candidate transitions, local issue dynamics such as data centers in Ohio, and broader structural challenges in Republican-leaning states, though all remain rated toss-ups by major forecasters with potential for shifts from ongoing campaign developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 50%
Alaska 24%
Maine 15%
Iowa 9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
50%
Alaska
24%
Maine
15%
Iowa
9%
Ohio
6%
Texas
5%
Michigan 50%
Alaska 24%
Maine 15%
Iowa 9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$56 Vol.
50%
Alaska
$119 Vol.
24%
Maine
$39 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$39 Vol.
9%
Ohio
$57 Vol.
6%
Texas
$39 Vol.
5%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among the tossup Senate races due to its open seat after Sen. Gary Peters's retirement, positioning it as Democrats' strongest opportunity in a narrowly decided 2024 presidential state. Post-August primary polling has shown Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed remaining competitive against Republican Mike Rogers, with recent surveys indicating tight margins that sustain trader focus on the race as the clearest Democratic hold or lean. Alaska follows as a notable contender, where former Rep. Mary Peltola advanced strongly from the August top-four primary against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, reflecting sustained Democratic viability in the ranked-choice environment. Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas register lower probabilities amid candidate transitions, local issue dynamics such as data centers in Ohio, and broader structural challenges in Republican-leaning states, though all remain rated toss-ups by major forecasters with potential for shifts from ongoing campaign developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$349End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among the tossup Senate races due to its open seat after Sen. Gary Peters's retirement, positioning it as Democrats' strongest opportunity in a narrowly decided 2024 presidential state. Post-August primary polling has shown Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed remaining competitive against Republican Mike Rogers, with recent surveys indicating tight margins that sustain trader focus on the race as the clearest Democratic hold or lean. Alaska follows as a notable contender, where former Rep. Mary Peltola advanced strongly from the August top-four primary against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, reflecting sustained Democratic viability in the ranked-choice environment. Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas register lower probabilities amid candidate transitions, local issue dynamics such as data centers in Ohio, and broader structural challenges in Republican-leaning states, though all remain rated toss-ups by major forecasters with potential for shifts from ongoing campaign developments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$349End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out among the tossup Senate races due to its open seat after Sen. Gary Peters's retirement, positioning it as Democrats' strongest opportunity in a narrowly decided 2024 presidential state. Post-August primary polling has shown Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed remaining competitive against Republican Mike Rogers, with recent surveys indicating tight margins that sustain trader focus on the race as the clearest Democratic hold or lean. Alaska follows as a notable contender, where former Rep. Mary Peltola advanced strongly from the August top-four primary against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, reflecting sustained Democratic viability in the ranked-choice environment. Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas register lower probabilities amid candidate transitions, local issue dynamics such as data centers in Ohio, and broader structural challenges in Republican-leaning states, though all remain rated toss-ups by major forecasters with potential for shifts from ongoing campaign developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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