Recent polling and candidate recruitment have tightened all three Great Plains Republican Senate contests amid a national midterm environment that favors Democrats in several open or vulnerable seats. Iowa’s open race pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in averages showing a narrow Republican edge of roughly three points, with multiple surveys inside the margin of error. Nebraska features incumbent Pete Ricketts facing independent Dan Osborn, whose strong name recognition has produced recent polls within four points or tighter. Kansas incumbent Roger Marshall holds a projected larger lead but faces a fresh Emerson survey showing Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead by two points, prompting Cook Political Report to shift its rating. These dynamics keep trader probabilities clustered because each state’s outcome hinges on turnout among independents, economic sentiment, and late-cycle spending that could widen or erase small margins before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIowa 31%
Nebraska 24%
Kansas 19%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Iowa
31%
Nebraska
34%
Kansas
31%
Iowa 31%
Nebraska 24%
Kansas 19%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Iowa
$0 Vol.
31%
Nebraska
$6 Vol.
34%
Kansas
$32 Vol.
31%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and candidate recruitment have tightened all three Great Plains Republican Senate contests amid a national midterm environment that favors Democrats in several open or vulnerable seats. Iowa’s open race pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in averages showing a narrow Republican edge of roughly three points, with multiple surveys inside the margin of error. Nebraska features incumbent Pete Ricketts facing independent Dan Osborn, whose strong name recognition has produced recent polls within four points or tighter. Kansas incumbent Roger Marshall holds a projected larger lead but faces a fresh Emerson survey showing Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead by two points, prompting Cook Political Report to shift its rating. These dynamics keep trader probabilities clustered because each state’s outcome hinges on turnout among independents, economic sentiment, and late-cycle spending that could widen or erase small margins before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$38End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and candidate recruitment have tightened all three Great Plains Republican Senate contests amid a national midterm environment that favors Democrats in several open or vulnerable seats. Iowa’s open race pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in averages showing a narrow Republican edge of roughly three points, with multiple surveys inside the margin of error. Nebraska features incumbent Pete Ricketts facing independent Dan Osborn, whose strong name recognition has produced recent polls within four points or tighter. Kansas incumbent Roger Marshall holds a projected larger lead but faces a fresh Emerson survey showing Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead by two points, prompting Cook Political Report to shift its rating. These dynamics keep trader probabilities clustered because each state’s outcome hinges on turnout among independents, economic sentiment, and late-cycle spending that could widen or erase small margins before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$38End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and candidate recruitment have tightened all three Great Plains Republican Senate contests amid a national midterm environment that favors Democrats in several open or vulnerable seats. Iowa’s open race pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in averages showing a narrow Republican edge of roughly three points, with multiple surveys inside the margin of error. Nebraska features incumbent Pete Ricketts facing independent Dan Osborn, whose strong name recognition has produced recent polls within four points or tighter. Kansas incumbent Roger Marshall holds a projected larger lead but faces a fresh Emerson survey showing Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead by two points, prompting Cook Political Report to shift its rating. These dynamics keep trader probabilities clustered because each state’s outcome hinges on turnout among independents, economic sentiment, and late-cycle spending that could widen or erase small margins before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions