**Iran's longstanding insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment remains the central barrier, with no signs of a shift that would enable an agreement by the July 31 deadline.** Tehran has repeatedly described on-soil enrichment as a red line in U.S. talks mediated through Oman, rejecting frameworks that would cap, relocate, or eliminate the activity in favor of a regional consortium. This stance persisted through 2025 negotiations and into early 2026 rounds, even as U.S. proposals emphasized verification, stockpile disposition, and limits on advanced centrifuges. Military strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 damaged key sites including Natanz and Isfahan, yet Iran has not signaled willingness to forgo enrichment rights or fully comply with IAEA demands for stockpile accounting and inspector access. The IAEA’s June 2026 report noted little change in core assessments and ongoing gaps. With roughly six weeks remaining, the absence of a breakthrough or altered Iranian position underpins trader expectations that the market will resolve to “No.”
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
$41,977 Vol.
$41,977 Vol.
31 jul 2026
$41,977 Vol.
$41,977 Vol.
31 jul 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Iran's longstanding insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment remains the central barrier, with no signs of a shift that would enable an agreement by the July 31 deadline.**
Tehran has repeatedly described on-soil enrichment as a red line in U.S. talks mediated through Oman, rejecting frameworks that would cap, relocate, or eliminate the activity in favor of a regional consortium. This stance persisted through 2025 negotiations and into early 2026 rounds, even as U.S. proposals emphasized verification, stockpile disposition, and limits on advanced centrifuges.
Military strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 damaged key sites including Natanz and Isfahan, yet Iran has not signaled willingness to forgo enrichment rights or fully comply with IAEA demands for stockpile accounting and inspector access. The IAEA’s June 2026 report noted little change in core assessments and ongoing gaps. With roughly six weeks remaining, the absence of a breakthrough or altered Iranian position underpins trader expectations that the market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$41,977Data de Término
31 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Iran's longstanding insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment remains the central barrier, with no signs of a shift that would enable an agreement by the July 31 deadline.**
Tehran has repeatedly described on-soil enrichment as a red line in U.S. talks mediated through Oman, rejecting frameworks that would cap, relocate, or eliminate the activity in favor of a regional consortium. This stance persisted through 2025 negotiations and into early 2026 rounds, even as U.S. proposals emphasized verification, stockpile disposition, and limits on advanced centrifuges.
Military strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 damaged key sites including Natanz and Isfahan, yet Iran has not signaled willingness to forgo enrichment rights or fully comply with IAEA demands for stockpile accounting and inspector access. The IAEA’s June 2026 report noted little change in core assessments and ongoing gaps. With roughly six weeks remaining, the absence of a breakthrough or altered Iranian position underpins trader expectations that the market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$41,977Data de Término
31 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran's longstanding insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment remains the central barrier, with no signs of a shift that would enable an agreement by the July 31 deadline.** Tehran has repeatedly described on-soil enrichment as a red line in U.S. talks mediated through Oman, rejecting frameworks that would cap, relocate, or eliminate the activity in favor of a regional consortium. This stance persisted through 2025 negotiations and into early 2026 rounds, even as U.S. proposals emphasized verification, stockpile disposition, and limits on advanced centrifuges. Military strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 damaged key sites including Natanz and Isfahan, yet Iran has not signaled willingness to forgo enrichment rights or fully comply with IAEA demands for stockpile accounting and inspector access. The IAEA’s June 2026 report noted little change in core assessments and ongoing gaps. With roughly six weeks remaining, the absence of a breakthrough or altered Iranian position underpins trader expectations that the market will resolve to “No.”
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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