Iran has administered Greater Tunb since seizing it in 1971, establishing IRGC naval and missile facilities that support Strait of Hormuz monitoring alongside disputed claims by the UAE on behalf of Ras al-Khaimah. In mid-July 2026, U.S. Central Command strikes targeted Iranian coastal defenses and cruise-missile sites on the island during escalated maritime operations, degrading specific military assets but leaving Iranian governmental and operational control intact. Diplomatic statements from the UAE, GCC, and others continue to label the islands occupied and call for negotiations or ICJ referral, while Iranian officials issue ownership documents and reject external assertions. No ground forces or international authority have displaced Tehran’s primary authority as of late September 2026, with any shift hinging on broader conflict outcomes or negotiated settlements that remain unresolved.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$55,050 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$55,050 Vol.
September 30
$382 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran has administered Greater Tunb since seizing it in 1971, establishing IRGC naval and missile facilities that support Strait of Hormuz monitoring alongside disputed claims by the UAE on behalf of Ras al-Khaimah. In mid-July 2026, U.S. Central Command strikes targeted Iranian coastal defenses and cruise-missile sites on the island during escalated maritime operations, degrading specific military assets but leaving Iranian governmental and operational control intact. Diplomatic statements from the UAE, GCC, and others continue to label the islands occupied and call for negotiations or ICJ referral, while Iranian officials issue ownership documents and reject external assertions. No ground forces or international authority have displaced Tehran’s primary authority as of late September 2026, with any shift hinging on broader conflict outcomes or negotiated settlements that remain unresolved.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$55,050End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran has administered Greater Tunb since seizing it in 1971, establishing IRGC naval and missile facilities that support Strait of Hormuz monitoring alongside disputed claims by the UAE on behalf of Ras al-Khaimah. In mid-July 2026, U.S. Central Command strikes targeted Iranian coastal defenses and cruise-missile sites on the island during escalated maritime operations, degrading specific military assets but leaving Iranian governmental and operational control intact. Diplomatic statements from the UAE, GCC, and others continue to label the islands occupied and call for negotiations or ICJ referral, while Iranian officials issue ownership documents and reject external assertions. No ground forces or international authority have displaced Tehran’s primary authority as of late September 2026, with any shift hinging on broader conflict outcomes or negotiated settlements that remain unresolved.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$55,050End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has administered Greater Tunb since seizing it in 1971, establishing IRGC naval and missile facilities that support Strait of Hormuz monitoring alongside disputed claims by the UAE on behalf of Ras al-Khaimah. In mid-July 2026, U.S. Central Command strikes targeted Iranian coastal defenses and cruise-missile sites on the island during escalated maritime operations, degrading specific military assets but leaving Iranian governmental and operational control intact. Diplomatic statements from the UAE, GCC, and others continue to label the islands occupied and call for negotiations or ICJ referral, while Iranian officials issue ownership documents and reject external assertions. No ground forces or international authority have displaced Tehran’s primary authority as of late September 2026, with any shift hinging on broader conflict outcomes or negotiated settlements that remain unresolved.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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