Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026 have placed Hengam Island under repeated scrutiny, including reported US projectile impacts on the island in July and strikes on nearby Larak Island launchers in August. Iranian authorities have reinforced defensive positions across Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting continued sovereignty, with no verified shifts in governmental or military administration reported through mid-September. A September 13 attack on an Iranian cargo vessel near Hengam killed one crew member and injured others amid broader exchanges targeting shipping and oil infrastructure. Trader consensus reflects these developments by assigning low implied probabilities to any loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates, citing the absence of amphibious operations or territorial transfers despite sustained conflict pressures. Upcoming naval activity or diplomatic pauses could influence near-term assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$208,473 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$208,473 Vol.
September 30
$2,633 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026 have placed Hengam Island under repeated scrutiny, including reported US projectile impacts on the island in July and strikes on nearby Larak Island launchers in August. Iranian authorities have reinforced defensive positions across Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting continued sovereignty, with no verified shifts in governmental or military administration reported through mid-September. A September 13 attack on an Iranian cargo vessel near Hengam killed one crew member and injured others amid broader exchanges targeting shipping and oil infrastructure. Trader consensus reflects these developments by assigning low implied probabilities to any loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates, citing the absence of amphibious operations or territorial transfers despite sustained conflict pressures. Upcoming naval activity or diplomatic pauses could influence near-term assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$208,473End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026 have placed Hengam Island under repeated scrutiny, including reported US projectile impacts on the island in July and strikes on nearby Larak Island launchers in August. Iranian authorities have reinforced defensive positions across Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting continued sovereignty, with no verified shifts in governmental or military administration reported through mid-September. A September 13 attack on an Iranian cargo vessel near Hengam killed one crew member and injured others amid broader exchanges targeting shipping and oil infrastructure. Trader consensus reflects these developments by assigning low implied probabilities to any loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates, citing the absence of amphibious operations or territorial transfers despite sustained conflict pressures. Upcoming naval activity or diplomatic pauses could influence near-term assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,473End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026 have placed Hengam Island under repeated scrutiny, including reported US projectile impacts on the island in July and strikes on nearby Larak Island launchers in August. Iranian authorities have reinforced defensive positions across Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting continued sovereignty, with no verified shifts in governmental or military administration reported through mid-September. A September 13 attack on an Iranian cargo vessel near Hengam killed one crew member and injured others amid broader exchanges targeting shipping and oil infrastructure. Trader consensus reflects these developments by assigning low implied probabilities to any loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates, citing the absence of amphibious operations or territorial transfers despite sustained conflict pressures. Upcoming naval activity or diplomatic pauses could influence near-term assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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