US airstrikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, coastal defenses, and missile sites on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb amid broader US-Iran hostilities over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. These operations degraded military infrastructure but produced no reported ground seizure or shift in administrative control, which Iran has exercised since the 1971 takeover from UAE-linked claims. The UAE maintains its sovereignty assertion with backing from the Arab League, GCC, and other partners, while pursuing diplomatic and legal avenues without triggering a transfer of authority. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian forces retain primary governmental and military presence on the island, consistent with trader consensus reflected in market pricing that assigns low implied probability to a change by late August 2026 deadlines. No scheduled events in the immediate resolution window point to an imminent reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$97,230 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$97,230 Vol.
September 30
$3,832 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US airstrikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, coastal defenses, and missile sites on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb amid broader US-Iran hostilities over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. These operations degraded military infrastructure but produced no reported ground seizure or shift in administrative control, which Iran has exercised since the 1971 takeover from UAE-linked claims. The UAE maintains its sovereignty assertion with backing from the Arab League, GCC, and other partners, while pursuing diplomatic and legal avenues without triggering a transfer of authority. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian forces retain primary governmental and military presence on the island, consistent with trader consensus reflected in market pricing that assigns low implied probability to a change by late August 2026 deadlines. No scheduled events in the immediate resolution window point to an imminent reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$97,230End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US airstrikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, coastal defenses, and missile sites on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb amid broader US-Iran hostilities over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. These operations degraded military infrastructure but produced no reported ground seizure or shift in administrative control, which Iran has exercised since the 1971 takeover from UAE-linked claims. The UAE maintains its sovereignty assertion with backing from the Arab League, GCC, and other partners, while pursuing diplomatic and legal avenues without triggering a transfer of authority. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian forces retain primary governmental and military presence on the island, consistent with trader consensus reflected in market pricing that assigns low implied probability to a change by late August 2026 deadlines. No scheduled events in the immediate resolution window point to an imminent reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$97,230End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US airstrikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, coastal defenses, and missile sites on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb amid broader US-Iran hostilities over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. These operations degraded military infrastructure but produced no reported ground seizure or shift in administrative control, which Iran has exercised since the 1971 takeover from UAE-linked claims. The UAE maintains its sovereignty assertion with backing from the Arab League, GCC, and other partners, while pursuing diplomatic and legal avenues without triggering a transfer of authority. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian forces retain primary governmental and military presence on the island, consistent with trader consensus reflected in market pricing that assigns low implied probability to a change by late August 2026 deadlines. No scheduled events in the immediate resolution window point to an imminent reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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