Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including strikes on Iranian coastal radar, missile sites, and assets near islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg, have not altered Iranian governmental or military control over Hormuz Island. Iran continues to rely on its chain of seven islands—including Hormuz—to monitor and influence Strait of Hormuz traffic, asserting sole authority over approved shipping routes amid a US naval blockade and repeated attempts to clear mines or counter Iranian drone and missile activity. Negotiations mediated through Oman and other channels have repeatedly stalled over terms for reopening the waterway, sanctions relief, and transit fees, with no verified transfers of island sovereignty or occupation by external forces. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing any near-term loss of Iranian control over Hormuz Island at low single-digit levels while noting risks from escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs before resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$71,135 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$71,135 Vol.
September 30
$858 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including strikes on Iranian coastal radar, missile sites, and assets near islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg, have not altered Iranian governmental or military control over Hormuz Island. Iran continues to rely on its chain of seven islands—including Hormuz—to monitor and influence Strait of Hormuz traffic, asserting sole authority over approved shipping routes amid a US naval blockade and repeated attempts to clear mines or counter Iranian drone and missile activity. Negotiations mediated through Oman and other channels have repeatedly stalled over terms for reopening the waterway, sanctions relief, and transit fees, with no verified transfers of island sovereignty or occupation by external forces. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing any near-term loss of Iranian control over Hormuz Island at low single-digit levels while noting risks from escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs before resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volume
$71,135End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including strikes on Iranian coastal radar, missile sites, and assets near islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg, have not altered Iranian governmental or military control over Hormuz Island. Iran continues to rely on its chain of seven islands—including Hormuz—to monitor and influence Strait of Hormuz traffic, asserting sole authority over approved shipping routes amid a US naval blockade and repeated attempts to clear mines or counter Iranian drone and missile activity. Negotiations mediated through Oman and other channels have repeatedly stalled over terms for reopening the waterway, sanctions relief, and transit fees, with no verified transfers of island sovereignty or occupation by external forces. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing any near-term loss of Iranian control over Hormuz Island at low single-digit levels while noting risks from escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs before resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,135End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including strikes on Iranian coastal radar, missile sites, and assets near islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg, have not altered Iranian governmental or military control over Hormuz Island. Iran continues to rely on its chain of seven islands—including Hormuz—to monitor and influence Strait of Hormuz traffic, asserting sole authority over approved shipping routes amid a US naval blockade and repeated attempts to clear mines or counter Iranian drone and missile activity. Negotiations mediated through Oman and other channels have repeatedly stalled over terms for reopening the waterway, sanctions relief, and transit fees, with no verified transfers of island sovereignty or occupation by external forces. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing any near-term loss of Iranian control over Hormuz Island at low single-digit levels while noting risks from escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs before resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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