Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a small but strategically positioned territory in the Strait of Hormuz that serves as one of several Iranian outposts influencing maritime traffic through the vital oil transit route. Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including strikes on coastal targets and Iranian responses to vessel movements, have centered on waterway access, fees, and passage protocols rather than any shift in island ownership or occupation. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding aimed at easing the broader crisis has not altered territorial status, while ongoing diplomatic efforts and intermittent escalations in July 2026 continue to focus on navigation rules and regional security arrangements among Gulf states. No verified military operations have targeted or displaced Iranian administration of the island itself.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
July 31
1%
August 31
4%
$4,102 Vol.
July 31
$3,339 Vol.
1%
August 31
$763 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a small but strategically positioned territory in the Strait of Hormuz that serves as one of several Iranian outposts influencing maritime traffic through the vital oil transit route. Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including strikes on coastal targets and Iranian responses to vessel movements, have centered on waterway access, fees, and passage protocols rather than any shift in island ownership or occupation. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding aimed at easing the broader crisis has not altered territorial status, while ongoing diplomatic efforts and intermittent escalations in July 2026 continue to focus on navigation rules and regional security arrangements among Gulf states. No verified military operations have targeted or displaced Iranian administration of the island itself.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$4,102End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a small but strategically positioned territory in the Strait of Hormuz that serves as one of several Iranian outposts influencing maritime traffic through the vital oil transit route. Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including strikes on coastal targets and Iranian responses to vessel movements, have centered on waterway access, fees, and passage protocols rather than any shift in island ownership or occupation. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding aimed at easing the broader crisis has not altered territorial status, while ongoing diplomatic efforts and intermittent escalations in July 2026 continue to focus on navigation rules and regional security arrangements among Gulf states. No verified military operations have targeted or displaced Iranian administration of the island itself.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,102End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a small but strategically positioned territory in the Strait of Hormuz that serves as one of several Iranian outposts influencing maritime traffic through the vital oil transit route. Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including strikes on coastal targets and Iranian responses to vessel movements, have centered on waterway access, fees, and passage protocols rather than any shift in island ownership or occupation. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding aimed at easing the broader crisis has not altered territorial status, while ongoing diplomatic efforts and intermittent escalations in July 2026 continue to focus on navigation rules and regional security arrangements among Gulf states. No verified military operations have targeted or displaced Iranian administration of the island itself.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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