Gadi Eizenkot leads trader pricing for Israel's next prime minister after the October 27, 2026, Knesset election because his new Yashar party has surged in recent polling to challenge or surpass Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, reflecting voter fatigue with the incumbent amid ongoing security and coalition strains. Eizenkot, a former IDF chief of staff who served in the wartime cabinet before breaking with Netanyahu, draws support from centrist and security-focused voters seeking an alternative. Netanyahu remains competitive through his right-wing bloc's base and incumbency advantages, though recent polls show Likud trailing or tied. Lower-priced contenders such as Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett factor in as potential coalition partners or kingmakers, while coalition math involving Arab parties and religious-right thresholds continues to shape implied probabilities reflected in current market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTravel bans imposed on Itamar Ben-Gvir by France and Poland
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Following controversial actions by Itamar Ben-Gvir, including a video taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, France and Poland imposed travel bans on him, damaging his international standing and reducing his market support.
US-Iran ceasefire deal sparks political backlash in Israel, impacting Netanyahu’s standing
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 34%5%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire deal caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty.
Gilad Erdan launches new right-wing party ahead of elections
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
Former UN ambassador and Likud member Gilad Erdan announced the formation of a new right-wing party to compete in the October 2026 elections, aiming to attract right-wing voters dissatisfied with Netanyahu. This development introduced a new contender but had a minor effect on market prices.
Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein announce new right-wing party ahead of elections
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
The formation of a new right-wing party by Erdan and Edelstein introduced a minor challenger to Netanyahu, slightly impacting market dynamics for right-wing candidates.
Ex-Likud ministers Erdan and Edelstein to launch new right-wing party
Gilad Erdan rises to 4%1%
Erdan and Edelstein announced plans to launch a new right-wing party focusing on ultra-Orthodox conscription, aiming to offer a statesmanlike alternative to Netanyahu's Likud, slightly increasing Erdan's market price.
Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein announce plans to form new right-wing party
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
Former Likud ministers Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein announced their plans to launch a new right-wing party focused on ultra-Orthodox conscription, introducing a new political dynamic but with limited impact on the prime minister market.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts controversial video taunting Gaza flotilla detainees
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video showing detained Gaza flotilla activists being taunted, sparking international condemnation and diplomatic backlash. This incident led to a sharp decline in his market odds for becoming prime minister.
France bans far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over flotilla video
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
France declared Itamar Ben-Gvir persona non grata and banned him from entering its territory due to his controversial treatment of detained flotilla activists, leading to a sharp decline in his market odds.
Gideon Sa’ar rejoins Netanyahu’s government as minister without portfolio
Gideon Sa’ar rejoined Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, boosting the coalition's parliamentary support and participating in the security cabinet amid ongoing regional conflicts, which reinforced Netanyahu's position in the market.
Avigdor Lieberman declares goal to become Prime Minister despite low polling
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 6%1%
Avigdor Lieberman publicly stated his ambition to become Israel's next Prime Minister, despite his party polling significantly behind the main contenders. This declaration had limited impact on his market odds, which remained low.
Benjamin Netanyahu gives exclusive interview to ABC News discussing Iran and U.S. relations
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%2%
Netanyahu's interview reaffirmed his leadership stance and ongoing challenges, maintaining his market relevance despite declining support.
Polls show Netanyahu and Eisenkot in tight race for prime minister
Recent polls indicate a close contest between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, with no clear majority, reflecting the divided political landscape and influencing market prices.
Yair Golan positions himself as kingmaker in upcoming election
Yair Golan dips to 0%1%
Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, is seen as a key player who could influence coalition formation, though unlikely to become prime minister himself, impacting market dynamics.
Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Trump amid Iran war tensions
Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to the White House to meet President Trump focused on the ongoing war with Iran and US-Israel relations, aiming to reassure allies and bolster his leadership image ahead of the election, affecting market perceptions.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump amid election campaign
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%1%
Netanyahu's visit to the White House aimed to reinforce US-Israel ties and bolster his election campaign, though his influence appeared challenged by rivals.
Netanyahu visits White House amid Iran war and election campaign
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 33%1%
Netanyahu's visit to the White House aimed to reinforce US-Israel relations and secure support ahead of the election, affecting market perceptions of his political strength.
Netanyahu visits White House seeking support amid election campaign
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the White House to discuss the ongoing war on Iran and seek support ahead of the October elections, aiming to reinforce his leadership credentials and international backing.
Netanyahu meets Trump at White House amid Iran war escalation
Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to the White House to meet President Trump underscored US-Israel ties during the Iran conflict, aiming to bolster Netanyahu's international standing ahead of elections.
Eisenkot and Bennett criticize Netanyahu's leadership and policies
In July 2026, both Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett publicly criticized Netanyahu's government, highlighting failures in security and governance. Their critiques reinforced their positions as leading opposition figures and influenced voter sentiment ahead of the election.
Benjamin Netanyahu visits US amid Iran war escalation and election campaign
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%4%
Netanyahu traveled to Washington to meet with US President Donald Trump to discuss security issues, including the Iran war, amid declining domestic support and a challenging election campaign. This visit highlighted Netanyahu's ongoing role but did not reverse his polling decline.
Gadi Eizenkot emerges as main rival to Netanyahu ahead of general election
Gadi Eizenkot dips to 51%1%
Eizenkot's campaign, focused on security and democratic institutions, has positioned him as the principal challenger to Netanyahu, with polls showing him as the preferred candidate for Prime Minister.
Benjamin Netanyahu publicly criticizes Itamar Ben-Gvir over Gaza flotilla video
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar publicly rebuked National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir for taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, causing diplomatic backlash and reducing Ben-Gvir's market support.
Netanyahu plans UN visit despite NYC mayor's opposition over ICC arrest warrant
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 33%3%
Netanyahu announced plans to attend the UN General Assembly in New York despite the mayor's statement that he was not welcome due to the ICC arrest warrant, maintaining his international profile ahead of elections.
Yoaz Hendel's Reservists party merges with ex-minister Chili Tropper ahead of election
The merger of Hendel's Reservists party with Chili Tropper's group aimed to consolidate the secular center-right vote, slightly improving Hendel's market position.
Benjamin Netanyahu accuses New York mayor of fomenting hate over ICC arrest warrant
Netanyahu publicly condemned New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's calls for his arrest, asserting his intention to attend the UN General Assembly, impacting his international image.
New York mayor calls Netanyahu 'not welcome' amid ICC arrest warrant controversy
The mayor of New York City publicly opposed Netanyahu's visit due to the ICC arrest warrant, highlighting international legal and political challenges facing the prime minister.
Yariv Levin refuses to obey High Court order on judicial appointments
Yariv Levin dips to 0%1%
Justice Minister Yariv Levin's refusal to comply with court orders intensified the judicial reform controversy, affecting his political standing and market perception.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces increasing criticism over Iran war strategy and coalition fragility
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 35%5%
Netanyahu’s handling of the Iran war and coalition instability led to declining public support and market price dropping to 35%, while Eisenkot gained ground.
Yair Golan launches election campaign blaming Netanyahu for violence in West Bank
Yair Golan dips to 0%1%
Democrats party leader Yair Golan launched his election campaign accusing Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government of creating dangerous conditions in the West Bank that endanger Israeli soldiers and civilians. Golan pledged to dismantle far-right militias and restore sanity, but his market odds remained near zero.
Yair Golan launches Democrats party campaign criticizing Netanyahu government
Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, launched his election campaign with strong criticism of Netanyahu's government, blaming it for instability and violence in the West Bank. His stance influenced his party's market odds and the broader opposition dynamics.
Knesset dissolves, setting October 27, 2026 election date
The Israeli Knesset dissolved in July 2026, officially setting the legislative election date for October 27, 2026, framing the vote as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership and intensifying the race among leading candidates.
Naftali Bennett criticizes Itamar Ben-Gvir's flotilla video for harming Israel's image
Naftali Bennett dips to 5%2%
Bennett publicly condemned Ben-Gvir's release of controversial video showing detained flotilla activists, framing it as damaging to Israel's global image and strengthening his campaign to fix Israel's propaganda efforts.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint party 'Together' for 2026 elections
Naftali Bennett dips to 6%4%
Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties into a joint list called 'Together' under Bennett's leadership, aiming to consolidate the opposition against Netanyahu. This alliance influenced market prices by positioning Bennett as a stronger challenger.
Itamar Ben Gvir's market odds drop to zero amid international condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Following Ben Gvir's controversial actions and international sanctions, his market probability as next prime minister fell to zero, reflecting diminished political viability.
Benjamin Netanyahu to meet US President Donald Trump amid Iran war escalation
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with Trump at the White House underscored US support during the ongoing conflict with Iran, bolstering his political standing ahead of the election.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party ahead of Netanyahu's Likud
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 48%11%
A Channel 13 poll showed Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party narrowly leading Netanyahu's Likud, marking a significant shift in voter sentiment and boosting Eisenkot's market prospects as a potential next prime minister.
Gadi Eisenkot widens lead over Netanyahu as Likud hits lowest polling since June 2025
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 50%11%
Following recent polls, Eisenkot’s lead over Netanyahu increased, reflecting growing voter dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s government and boosting Eisenkot’s market price to 50%.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot leading Netanyahu as top opposition leader
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%8%
A Channel 12 poll showed Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, marking a significant shift in public opinion and boosting Eizenkot's market position as the leading challenger.
Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Donald Trump amid Iran war escalation
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump at the White House underscored US support during the ongoing regional conflict, reinforcing Netanyahu's leadership credentials ahead of elections.
Gadi Eisenkot emerges as strongest challenger to Netanyahu in polls and markets
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 51%14%
Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as a leading contender to be Israel's next prime minister and the strongest challenger to Benjamin Netanyahu, gaining significant support in polls and prediction markets ahead of the October 2026 election.
Gadi Eisenkot formally launches election campaign, pledges unity after current government chaos
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 52%3%
Gadi Eisenkot officially launched his election campaign, emphasizing unification and stability, which reinforced his position as a leading challenger and positively influenced his market price.
Itamar Ben-Gvir faces international travel bans amid controversy
Several countries, including France and Poland, imposed travel bans on Itamar Ben-Gvir due to his controversial actions, affecting his political standing and market odds.
Israel announces October 27, 2026 election date
The Knesset confirmed the election date, marking the start of the final campaign phase and solidifying market expectations for the election timeline and outcome.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce united run under Bennett in 2026 elections
Naftali Bennett rises to 14%3%
Bennett and Lapid merged their parties to form a united front, strengthening the opposition against Netanyahu and affecting market dynamics for the prime ministership.
France bans Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering country
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Following international outrage over Ben-Gvir's actions, France imposed a travel ban on him, severely damaging his political prospects and causing his market price to fall to near zero.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu in Israeli election race
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 52%13%
A Channel 13 poll showed Eisenkot's Yashar party narrowly leading Netanyahu's Likud party for the first time since Yashar's founding, boosting market confidence in Eisenkot's chances to become Prime Minister.
Polls show Gadi Eisenkot leading Netanyahu ahead of October election
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 50%13%
Recent polls place Eisenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment and increasing Eisenkot's market probability.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts video taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, sparking international condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 0%49%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted controversial videos showing detained Gaza flotilla activists in degrading conditions, leading to international condemnation, including from France which banned him, and a sharp decline in his market odds for becoming prime minister.
Itamar Ben-Gvir's controversial video sparks international backlash
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video showing detained flotilla activists in harsh conditions, causing international condemnation and sanctions. This controversy led to a sharp decline in his market support to near zero.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot preferred over Netanyahu as next prime minister
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 48%7%
A Channel 12 poll showed 43% of Israelis preferred Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister compared to 34% for Netanyahu, indicating a significant shift in public opinion favoring Eisenkot. This poll influenced market prices, boosting Eisenkot's chances and reducing Netanyahu's.
Gadi Eisenkot emerges as leading challenger to Netanyahu in polls
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 52%15%
Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as a leading contender to be Israel's next prime minister and the strongest challenger to Benjamin Netanyahu, gaining momentum in polls and prediction markets.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 50%13%
A Channel 13 poll indicated Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading Netanyahu’s Likud for the first time since its founding, boosting Eisenkot’s market price to around 50%.
Gideon Sa’ar severs contact with EU diplomat over Gaza apartheid remark
Foreign Minister Sa’ar suspended contact with EU Vice-President Kaja Kallas over controversial remarks, underscoring his assertive diplomatic stance and political profile.
Benjamin Netanyahu visits White House seeking support amid election campaign
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the White House to discuss the ongoing Iran conflict and seek support ahead of the October 2026 elections, aiming to bolster his standing despite criticism over his war handling.
Yair Golan launches election campaign criticizing Netanyahu government
Yair Golan dips to 0%1%
Yair Golan publicly condemned Netanyahu’s government policies, particularly on security and judicial issues, positioning himself as a left-wing alternative and impacting his market odds.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid alliance faces challenges in polls
Naftali Bennett plunges to 7%33%
Despite the 'Together' alliance, recent polls showed a decline in their projected seats, indicating lukewarm voter response and affecting Bennett's market odds negatively.
Yair Golan leads Democrats party primaries ahead of elections
Yair Golan was confirmed as leader of the Democrats party, which is part of the opposition bloc seeking to replace Netanyahu, solidifying his position though with low market odds.
Democrats party holds primary election with high turnout under Yair Golan
The Democrats party, led by Yair Golan, held its primary election with a record turnout, solidifying Golan's leadership and the party's electoral slate ahead of the 2026 elections. This event marked the consolidation of the left-wing opposition but had limited impact on the prime minister market.
Avigdor Lieberman declares goal to become Israel’s next prime minister
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 6%2%
Avigdor Lieberman publicly stated his ambition to become prime minister in the upcoming election, despite his party polling behind main opposition, slightly increasing his market odds.
Yair Golan's Democrats party holds primaries amid left-wing consolidation
The Democrats party, led by Yair Golan, held primaries in July 2026 to finalize its Knesset slate, reflecting efforts to unify the left and increase political relevance ahead of the election, though polling remains low.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party ahead of Netanyahu's Likud for first time
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 54%14%
A Channel 13 poll revealed Eizenkot's party narrowly leading Netanyahu's Likud, marking a significant shift in voter sentiment and boosting Eizenkot's market position.
Democrats party led by Yair Golan holds internal elections
Yair Golan dips to 0%1%
The left-leaning Democrats party, led by Yair Golan, held internal elections for their party list, signaling organizational readiness for the upcoming election. Despite this, Golan's market chances remained near zero due to limited broader support.
Gilad Erdan considers forming new right-wing party
Gilad Erdan publicly stated he is examining the feasibility of establishing a new right-wing party to compete with Likud, positioning himself as a potential future prime minister, which kept his market odds low but notable.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts video taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, sparking global condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted controversial videos showing detained Gaza flotilla activists in degrading conditions, leading to international condemnation and diplomatic backlash. This incident negatively impacted his market odds for becoming Prime Minister, which dropped to near zero.
Court injunction on Likud internal vote boosts Gadi Eizenkot's market odds
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%10%
A court injunction affecting Likud's internal vote caused a significant market repricing, boosting Eizenkot's probability to nearly 49% and reducing Netanyahu's to 34%, reflecting increased uncertainty and Eizenkot's strengthened position.
Demonstrations against Netanyahu highlight public dissatisfaction ahead of elections
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%3%
Protests in Tel Aviv against Netanyahu's government underscored growing public frustration, impacting perceptions of his electoral prospects and contributing to market volatility.
Israeli parliament dissolves, confirming October 27 election date
The Knesset officially dissolved, setting the stage for the October 27, 2026 election, intensifying the campaign and solidifying the timeline for the market's resolution.
Yariv Levin appointment as interim Prime Minister denied amid rumors
Yariv Levin dips to 0%1%
Rumors circulated that Yariv Levin had been appointed interim Prime Minister replacing Netanyahu, but these were officially denied by government sources, confirming Netanyahu remains in office. This clarified market confusion and maintained Levin's low probability.
Israel's parliament dissolves, setting stage for October 27 election
The 25th Knesset was dissolved, confirming the October 27, 2026 election date. This event marked the official start of the election campaign period, intensifying political competition and market activity around the prime ministership.
Knesset dissolves, confirming October 27 election date
The Israeli Knesset formally dissolved after completing its full term, confirming the scheduled October 27, 2026 election date. This solidified the election timeline and intensified campaign activities, impacting market dynamics.
Knesset dissolves, setting October 27 elections with no clear majority
The Knesset's dissolution confirmed the election date and underscored the fragmented political landscape, with no bloc commanding a clear majority, increasing uncertainty in the market.
Netanyahu's coalition falls to 48 seats following Knesset's legislative blitz
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%4%
A poll revealed Netanyahu's coalition projected to fall to 48 seats, while the opposition coalition led by Eisenkot is expected to win a majority, impacting market perceptions of Netanyahu's prospects.
Poll shows Yashar widens lead over Likud as Netanyahu hits lowest polling since June 2025
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%7%
A Maariv poll in mid-July 2026 showed Yashar, led by Gadi Eizenkot, gaining seats and opening a lead over Netanyahu's Likud, whose polling hit its lowest point since June 2025, reflecting shifting voter sentiment.
Gadi Eisenkot reaches peak market support amid election campaign
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 55%13%
Gadi Eisenkot's market price peaked at 55% as his campaign gained momentum, reflecting growing public and political support as the main challenger to Netanyahu.
Israeli Knesset votes to dissolve itself, potentially triggering early elections
The Knesset's vote to advance a bill to dissolve itself increased uncertainty about the election timing, influencing market odds for the prime ministership.
Justice Minister Yariv Levin threatens to paralyze Supreme Court, plans judicial overhaul
Yariv Levin dips to 0%1%
Yariv Levin announced plans to weaken the judiciary, escalating political tensions and impacting his market prospects as a potential prime minister candidate.
Poll shows Netanyahu's Likud overtakes Yashar led by Eisenkot
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%4%
A KAN News poll showed Netanyahu's Likud party overtaking Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party in seats, and Netanyahu leading in public opinion as the best suited to be next prime minister, impacting market confidence.
Israeli Knesset dissolves ahead of October 2026 elections
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself in May 2026, confirming the election date of October 27, 2026, setting the stage for the upcoming electoral contest and impacting market dynamics as parties prepared for the campaign.
Poll shows Netanyahu's Likud at lowest support since June 2025, Eizenkot leads
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 39%2%
A Maariv poll indicated Likud's support at a low point while Eizenkot's Yashar gained seats, highlighting shifting voter preferences and impacting market probabilities.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot widening lead over Netanyahu as Likud hits lowest polling since June 2025
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 51%11%
A Maariv poll showed Eizenkot's Yashar party gaining a three-seat lead over Netanyahu's Likud, marking a record high for Eizenkot and a low for Netanyahu. This poll reinforced market confidence in Eizenkot as the leading challenger.
Poll shows Likud at lowest level since June 2025, Eisenkot's Yashar reaches record seats
A Maariv poll indicated Netanyahu's Likud party at its weakest, while Eisenkot's Yashar surged, reflecting shifting voter preferences and market confidence in Eisenkot.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot widens lead over Netanyahu as Likud hits lowest polling since June 2025
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 52%12%
A Maariv poll found Eizenkot's Yashar party at a record high of 23 seats, leading Netanyahu's Likud by three seats, reinforcing Eizenkot's position as the leading challenger.
Yariv Levin assumes multiple ministerial roles after Haredi parties quit coalition
Following the withdrawal of ultra-Orthodox parties from the government, Yariv Levin was appointed to head five ministries, increasing his political profile but without significant market impact on his Prime Minister chances.
Polls show Netanyahu slipping, opposition coalition may unseat him
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 34%8%
Polls indicated a decline in Netanyahu's support with opposition parties, including Eisenkot's Yashar and Bennett's Together alliance, gaining ground. This shift contributed to Netanyahu's market price decline and Eizenkot's rise.
Israel confirms October 27, 2026 election date
The Israeli coalition confirmed the legislative election date for October 27, 2026, setting the timeline for the political contest and market resolution, with Netanyahu confirming his candidacy amid challenges.
Netanyahu attends Knesset session before election dissolution
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu attended a Knesset session ahead of its dissolution for the 2026 elections, signaling the start of the final campaign phase and maintaining his position as a leading candidate despite challenges.
Channel 12 poll shows Gadi Eizenkot leading over Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%8%
A Channel 12 poll showed Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, marking the first time Yashar outpolled the ruling party and cementing Eizenkot's status as Netanyahu's main opponent, boosting his market price.
Netanyahu attends Knesset session ahead of elections amid shifting polls
Benjamin Netanyahu attended a Knesset session as the election approaches, with polls showing fluctuating support between him and challengers like Eisenkot. This event underscored the competitive nature of the race.
Netanyahu visits White House amid election campaign and Iran war
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 33%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the White House in July 2026 to discuss the ongoing war on Iran and seek support ahead of the October elections, highlighting his continued role on the international stage despite domestic challenges.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot widens lead as Likud hits lowest polling since June 2025
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 52%14%
A Maariv poll published showed Netanyahu's Likud party at its lowest polling since June 2025, with only 20 seats, while Eisenkot's Yashar party gained ground. This poll reflected growing public support for Eisenkot and contributed to his market price increase.
Knesset passes law banning arrests of ultra-Orthodox draft dodgers, legitimizing non-enlistment
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 35%7%
This controversial law, supported by Netanyahu and Justice Minister Yariv Levin, sparked political backlash and affected Netanyahu's market support negatively.
Netanyahu slips in polls as opposition coalition gains ground ahead of October election
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%4%
Polls show Netanyahu's Likud trailing Eisenkot's Yashar party and a fragmented opposition coalition gaining majority seats, increasing uncertainty about Netanyahu's reelection chances.
Poll shows Eisenkot leading Netanyahu as preferred prime minister
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%8%
A new poll showed Eisenkot leading Netanyahu by a significant margin as the preferred candidate for prime minister, reflecting declining support for Netanyahu and boosting Eisenkot's market price further.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces new lows in battle for survival amid political challenges
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%4%
Netanyahu's support dropped to new lows due to political controversies and legislative challenges, weakening his position ahead of the October 2026 election.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar meets US House Foreign Affairs chair
Gideon Sa’ar, serving as Foreign Minister, engaged in high-level diplomatic talks with US officials, highlighting his active role in foreign policy. Despite this, his market probability for becoming Prime Minister remained very low, reflecting limited electoral prospects.
Gideon Sa’ar meets with US House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman
Gideon Sa’ar dips to 0%1%
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar's engagement with US officials highlights his active role in foreign policy, though his market support remains low.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot preferred over Netanyahu as next Prime Minister
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 52%15%
Recent polls showed Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, with Eisenkot favored as the best fit for prime minister by opposition voters, boosting his market odds.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar meets US House Foreign Affairs chair
Gideon Sa’ar, serving as Foreign Minister, engaged in high-level diplomatic talks with US officials, enhancing his profile as a senior political figure ahead of the elections, though his market chances remain low.
Knesset votes to freeze arrests of ultra-Orthodox draft evaders, legitimizing non-enlistment
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 35%7%
The Knesset passed a controversial bill freezing arrests of ultra-Orthodox draft evaders, legitimizing ongoing mass non-enlistment. This move, supported by Netanyahu's coalition, sparked political backlash and contributed to a decline in Netanyahu's market odds.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot gaining ground as Netanyahu faces voter fatigue
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%11%
Recent polls indicate growing support for Gadi Eizenkot as a credible challenger to Netanyahu, driven by voter fatigue with Netanyahu's long tenure and security concerns, reflected in market price increases for Eizenkot.
Poll suggests Netanyahu best suited as next prime minister, likely to form new government
A poll indicated Netanyahu as the preferred candidate to form the next government, reflecting his enduring political strength despite challenges.
Yariv Levin leads controversial judicial reform efforts in Knesset
Yariv Levin dips to 0%1%
Justice Minister Yariv Levin spearheaded legislation centralizing power in the governing coalition, sparking protests and political debate, but his market odds for prime minister remained negligible.
Polls show Netanyahu in trouble but still competitive; Eizenkot leads opposition
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%2%
Recent polls indicate Netanyahu faces significant challenges due to criticism over his handling of conflicts and corruption charges, while Gadi Eizenkot leads as the favored opposition candidate, influencing market prices accordingly.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot leading Netanyahu amid Netanyahu’s declining popularity
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 52%15%
Recent polls indicate Gadi Eizenkot leading Netanyahu in popularity as Netanyahu faces criticism over his handling of recent conflicts and political challenges. This polling data aligns with market movements favoring Eizenkot as the likely next Prime Minister.
Netanyahu faces political trouble amid criticism over military and security issues
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 38%2%
Netanyahu's failure to deliver clear military victories and restore security has led to political challenges, reflected in fluctuating market support and increased backing for challengers like Eizenkot and Bennett.
Naftali Bennett launches campaign to improve Israel's international image
Naftali Bennett rises to 13%3%
Bennett announced plans to fix Israel's propaganda efforts, aiming to differentiate himself from Netanyahu while maintaining similar policies, boosting his campaign profile.
Israel's Knesset dissolves, setting October 27 election date
The Knesset officially dissolved, confirming the election date and intensifying the campaign, with Eizenkot leading in polls and Netanyahu facing strong challenges from opposition figures.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot leading as preferred Prime Minister over Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 50%13%
A Channel 12 poll showed Gadi Eizenkot with 43% preference as Prime Minister, surpassing Netanyahu's 34%, indicating a shift in public opinion favoring Eizenkot as the main challenger.
Coalition confirms date for 2026 Israeli elections; Netanyahu confirms run
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 39%4%
The Israeli coalition officially confirmed the election date for October 27, 2026, and Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed he will run again, solidifying the election timeline and Netanyahu's candidacy, impacting market prices for Netanyahu and his challengers.
Polls show Gadi Eisenkot narrowly ahead of Netanyahu as preferred PM
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 52%15%
Recent polls in July 2026 showed Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, with Eisenkot favored as the best fit for prime minister by opposition voters. This polling shift reflected growing public support for Eisenkot as a change candidate.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot preferred over Netanyahu as prime minister
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 42%5%
A Channel 12 poll found 43% of Israelis preferred Eisenkot as prime minister compared to 34% for Netanyahu, reflecting Eisenkot's surge in public support and market prices.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot preferred over Netanyahu as next Prime Minister
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%9%
A Channel 12 poll in mid-July 2026 showed 43% of Israelis preferred Gadi Eizenkot as prime minister compared to 34% for Netanyahu, indicating a significant shift in public opinion favoring Eizenkot. This poll influenced market prices, boosting Eizenkot's chances.
Coalition confirms October 27, 2026 election date; Netanyahu confirms candidacy
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 39%5%
The official confirmation of the election date and Netanyahu's announcement to run again set the stage for the final campaign phase, impacting market dynamics.
Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms he will run again, faces strong challenge from Eisenkot and Bennett
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%2%
Netanyahu’s announcement to seek re-election solidified his position but highlighted the serious competition from Eisenkot and Bennett, causing his market price to decline to 35%.
Channel 12 poll shows Gadi Eizenkot leading Netanyahu as preferred Prime Minister
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 52%3%
A Channel 12 poll indicated Eizenkot leading Netanyahu in public preference for Prime Minister, reinforcing market confidence in Eizenkot's chances.
Israel's Knesset confirms October 27 election date amid political challenges
The Knesset officially set the election date for October 27, 2026, framing the vote as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership. This formal announcement intensified political campaigning and market activity, with Eizenkot emerging as Netanyahu's main rival.
Gadi Eisenkot overtakes Netanyahu as preferred PM in polls
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 52%11%
Polls indicated Gadi Eisenkot overtaking Netanyahu as the preferred candidate for Prime Minister, reflecting growing public support and influencing market prices.
Coalition confirms date for 2026 Israeli elections on October 27
The governing coalition officially confirmed the election date for October 27, 2026, ending speculation about early elections and setting the stage for the final campaign phase.
Netanyahu calls for broad national government after upcoming election
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%1%
Netanyahu publicly advocated for a broad national government post-election, signaling his intent to maintain power and appeal to a wider political base amid a fragmented opposition.
Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms candidacy for 2026 elections
Netanyahu officially confirmed he will run in the October 2026 legislative elections, ending speculation about retirement and reinforcing his position as a leading candidate.
Israel sets October 27 for legislative elections amid Netanyahu-Eisenkot race
The Knesset officially set the election date for October 27, framing the vote as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership, with Eisenkot emerging as a main rival, influencing market expectations.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 52%10%
A Channel 13 poll indicated Eisenkot's party leading Netanyahu's Likud for the first time, reflecting a significant shift in voter sentiment and impacting market odds.
Israeli coalition confirms October 27, 2026 election date; Netanyahu confirms run
The official confirmation of the election date and Netanyahu's announcement to run solidified the election timeline and influenced market positioning for Netanyahu and challengers.
Israeli coalition confirms October 27, 2026 election date; Netanyahu confirms run
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%2%
The official confirmation of the election date and Netanyahu's candidacy solidified the election timeline, influencing market positioning for Netanyahu and his challengers.
Israeli parliament confirms October 27, 2026, as election date
The Knesset officially set the election date for October 27, 2026, marking the first election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent conflicts. Netanyahu confirmed his candidacy, setting the stage for a high-stakes electoral contest.
Netanyahu coalition announces 2026 election date as October 27
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition announced the 2026 legislative election will be held on October 27, the last possible date, signaling a full term served and setting the stage for the final campaign phase.
Israel's governing coalition confirms October 27, 2026 election date
Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition officially set the election date for October 27, 2026, ending speculation about early elections and setting the stage for the upcoming electoral contest.
Israel's Knesset dissolves, setting October 27 election date
The Knesset formally dissolved in July 2026, confirming the election date of October 27, 2026. This marked the first full-term parliament since 1988 and intensified the election campaign, with polls showing Eisenkot leading Netanyahu and Bennett's alliance trailing.
Netanyahu coalition announces 2026 election date as October 27
The governing coalition led by Netanyahu officially announced the 2026 legislative election date as October 27, setting the stage for the final campaign period and influencing market dynamics as candidates prepare for the vote.
Israel announces national elections for October 27, 2026
The governing coalition led by Netanyahu announced the election date as October 27, the latest legally allowed, setting the stage for a high-stakes election seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership during ongoing conflicts.
Israel's governing coalition confirms October 27, 2026 election date
The Israeli coalition led by Netanyahu officially confirmed the election date for October 27, 2026, setting the stage for the final campaign period and impacting market expectations and positioning.
Israeli coalition confirms October 27, 2026 election date
The governing coalition, led by Netanyahu, officially confirmed the election date for October 27, 2026, setting the stage for the upcoming electoral contest and market resolution.
Israel's 2026 election date confirmed for October 27
The governing coalition led by Netanyahu confirmed the election date, setting the stage for the final campaign period and solidifying market expectations for the election timeline and outcome.
Channel 12 poll shows Eisenkot solidifying lead as top opposition leader
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%7%
A Channel 12 poll further strengthened Eisenkot's position as the leading opposition figure, with his party gaining seats and maintaining a marginal lead over Netanyahu's Likud, influencing market confidence.
Israel confirms October 27, 2026 election date with Netanyahu running again
The Knesset officially set the election date for October 27, 2026, with Netanyahu confirming his candidacy, setting the stage for a high-stakes election and influencing market dynamics.
Gadi Eisenkot’s personal tragedy resonates with voters
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 39%2%
Eisenkot’s public sharing of his son’s death in Gaza humanized him and increased his appeal as a serious contender against Netanyahu, reflected in market price increases.
Gadi Eizenkot emerges as leading challenger to Netanyahu in polls
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 52%15%
Polls in mid-2026 showed Gadi Eizenkot narrowly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu as the preferred candidate for Prime Minister, reflecting growing public support for Eizenkot as a change candidate. This polling shift boosted his market odds significantly.
Israeli Knesset confirms October 27, 2026 election date
The official confirmation of the election date set the stage for the final campaign period, impacting market expectations and candidate positioning.
Israeli government confirms October 27, 2026 election date
The governing coalition led by Netanyahu announced the election date as October 27, 2026, setting the stage for the final campaign period and influencing market dynamics as candidates prepare for the vote.
Likud grants Netanyahu eight appointees on party's Knesset slate
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%1%
On July 12, 2026, Likud's Constitution Committee allowed Prime Minister Netanyahu to appoint eight members to the party's Knesset slate, consolidating his control over the party's candidate list ahead of the election. This move reinforced Netanyahu's leadership position, supporting his market odds.
Netanyahu coalition confirms October 27, 2026 election date
The official confirmation of the election date ended speculation about early elections, allowing market participants to adjust their positions accordingly.
Israeli coalition confirms October 27, 2026 election date; Netanyahu confirms run
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%3%
The Israeli Knesset officially confirmed the election date for October 27, 2026, and Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed he will run again, solidifying the election timeline and impacting market prices for Netanyahu and his challengers.
Protests against Netanyahu government as election approaches
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 37%2%
On July 11, 2026, about 1,000 people protested in Tel Aviv against Netanyahu's government, criticizing judicial reforms and the war in Gaza. This public dissent may have contributed to market uncertainty and affected the support for Netanyahu and opposition candidates.
Gadi Eisenkot overtakes Netanyahu in polls as opposition nears majority
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 41%23%
Polls showed Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party gaining ground and overtaking Netanyahu's Likud party as the Zionist opposition bloc neared a 61-seat majority, reflecting growing public support for Eisenkot as the likely next Prime Minister.
Gadi Eisenkot overtakes Netanyahu as Zionist opposition nears majority
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%7%
Polls showed Eisenkot gaining ground over Netanyahu as the opposition bloc approached a majority, increasing market confidence in Eisenkot’s chances to become prime minister.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot surging and Naftali Bennett slipping ahead of Israeli elections
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 41%3%
New polls published around July 10, 2026, indicated Likud leading but Gadi Eizenkot gaining strength as a centrist-security alternative, while Naftali Bennett's support declined. This polling data directly influenced market prices, boosting Eizenkot's odds and reducing Bennett's.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly supports Argentina in FIFA World Cup 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%1%
On July 9, 2026, Netanyahu expressed support for Argentina's team in the World Cup, citing geopolitical reasons and his admiration for Argentina's president. This event coincided with a slight market shift, reflecting Netanyahu's active public profile and international engagement, which may influence voter perception.
Poll shows Eisenkot surpassing Netanyahu as preferred prime minister
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 40%5%
A Channel 13 poll showed Eisenkot leading Netanyahu in suitability for premiership, shifting campaign dynamics and market focus away from Bennett towards Eisenkot.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party surpassing Netanyahu's Likud
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 26%6%
A major poll showed Eisenkot's Yashar party leading over Netanyahu's Likud, shifting opposition leadership dynamics and boosting Eisenkot's market odds significantly.
Yoaz Hendel's Reservists party forms alliance with ex-minister Chili Tropper
Yoaz Hendel rises to 1%1%
The alliance aimed to create a significant new Zionist political force, increasing Hendel's visibility and market presence ahead of the election.
Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper form new center-right party ahead of elections
Yoaz Hendel dips to 0%1%
Former ministers Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper announced the formation of a new political party, aiming to influence the upcoming elections. Their alliance attracted some voter attention but failed to cross the electoral threshold, limiting their impact on the prime minister market.
Yoaz Hendel forms political alliance with Chili Tropper ahead of elections
Yoaz Hendel, leader of the Reservists Party, announced a new political alliance with former minister Chili Tropper, aiming to create a significant Zionist political force. This move slightly increased Hendel's political profile but did not significantly impact his market chances.
Avigdor Lieberman criticizes Netanyahu, calls him a burden to US-Israel ties
Lieberman publicly criticized Netanyahu’s leadership and its impact on US-Israel relations, attempting to position himself as a viable alternative, though his market support remained low.
Benjamin Netanyahu attends cornerstone ceremony in East Jerusalem amid election campaign
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%2%
Netanyahu’s public appearances and active campaigning in mid-2026, including a cornerstone laying ceremony, reinforced his position as a leading candidate, stabilizing his market odds around 35%.
Gadi Eizenkot surges in polls and prediction markets as Netanyahu support wanes
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 49%22%
Gadi Eizenkot’s party gained significant momentum in polls and prediction markets, overtaking Netanyahu as the favorite to become the next Prime Minister, with his market probability rising to 39% and later 49%.
Polls show Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leading or neck-and-neck with Likud
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 37%8%
Recent polls indicated that Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party was gaining ground, sometimes leading or tying with Netanyahu's Likud, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment and challenging Netanyahu's dominance.
Channel 13 poll shows Eizenkot leading Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%7%
A Channel 13 poll showed Eizenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, marking the first time since Yashar's founding that it outpolled the ruling party, reinforcing market confidence in Eizenkot's chances.
Poll shows Netanyahu best suited as next prime minister
A poll by the Jerusalem News Syndicate showed Netanyahu as the best fit to continue as prime minister with 53.3% support, ahead of Eisenkot and Bennett. This poll reinforced Netanyahu's standing in the market despite challenges.
Gadi Eisenkot officially enters race to replace Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%12%
Gadi Eisenkot formally announced his campaign to become Israel's next prime minister, emphasizing security and unity. This announcement further boosted his market odds as a credible alternative to Netanyahu.
Itamar Ben-Gvir faces international condemnation over flotilla video
National Security Minister Ben-Gvir released a controversial video showing detained Gaza flotilla activists, drawing condemnation from France and Israeli leaders, affecting his political standing and market odds.
Gadi Eisenkot enters race to replace Netanyahu as Israel’s leader
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 42%26%
Gadi Eisenkot launched his campaign to become prime minister, emphasizing security and unity, and quickly gained support as a credible alternative to Netanyahu, reflected in rising market prices.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party leading Netanyahu's Likud
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 53%11%
A Channel 13 poll published in early July 2026 showed Eizenkot's Yashar party leading Netanyahu's Likud, confirming his status as the main opposition figure and increasing market confidence in his chances.
Opposition accuses Netanyahu of fabricating Iran nuclear threat to scare public
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%4%
Gadi Eisenkot publicly accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of fabricating the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb to manipulate public opinion, undermining Netanyahu's credibility and causing a decline in his market support.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 42%10%
A Channel 13 poll indicated Eizenkot's party leading over Netanyahu's Likud for the first time, boosting Eizenkot's market probability significantly.
Gadi Eizenkot surges in polls, becoming main challenger to Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%13%
Polls showed Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, marking a significant rise in his popularity and market odds as the main challenger for prime minister in the upcoming election.
Naftali Bennett confirms candidacy for 2026 Israeli Prime Minister
Naftali Bennett drops to 36%13%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett officially announced his candidacy for the 2026 elections, positioning himself as a strong challenger to Netanyahu and boosting his market odds.
Gadi Eisenkot officially launches Yashar party election campaign
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 43%4%
Eisenkot's formal campaign launch solidified his position as Netanyahu's main challenger, reflected in rising poll numbers and market prices.
Gadi Eisenkot launches Yashar party election campaign, leading in polls
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 42%10%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot launched his Yashar party's election campaign, gaining momentum and overtaking Netanyahu in some polls, boosting his market position as the main challenger.
Gadi Eizenkot launches Yashar party campaign, gaining poll momentum
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 18%14%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot launched his party's campaign emphasizing security and national unity, leading to a surge in polls and market prices, positioning him as a strong contender against Netanyahu.
Gadi Eizenkot officially launches election campaign for Yashar party
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 41%17%
Gadi Eizenkot launched his election campaign for the Yashar party, emphasizing a new chapter for Israel and positioning himself as a moderate alternative to Netanyahu. This campaign launch was followed by a surge in his polling and market support.
Gadi Eisenkot launches election campaign to unseat Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 42%37%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot announced his candidacy for Prime Minister, launching the Yashar party and positioning himself as the main challenger to Netanyahu. His campaign emphasized security and unity, leading to a surge in polls and market odds in his favor.
Gadi Eizenkot launches election campaign as main challenger to Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 52%12%
Eizenkot's official campaign launch and rising poll numbers positioned him as the leading opposition candidate, significantly boosting his market odds.
Gadi Eizenkot emerges as main challenger to Netanyahu in 2026 election
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 52%24%
Polling and political analysis show Eizenkot gaining prominence as the leading alternative to Netanyahu, boosting his market odds significantly as the election approaches.
Poll shows Bennett-Lapid merger losing ground as Netanyahu's Likud remains largest party
Naftali Bennett drops to 31%8%
Recent polls indicated the opposition bloc led by Bennett and Lapid losing seats while Netanyahu's Likud maintained its position as the largest party, reflecting challenges for the opposition to unseat Netanyahu and impacting market odds accordingly.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot surging as a leading challenger to Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 42%12%
Recent polls indicated Eizenkot's party gaining strength and challenging Netanyahu's Likud for first place, boosting his market odds significantly and positioning him as the main opposition leader.
Gadi Eizenkot surges in polls challenging Netanyahu's lead
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 42%13%
Polls in mid-2026 showed Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party gaining strength and challenging Netanyahu's Likud for first place, boosting market confidence in Eizenkot as a leading candidate for Prime Minister.
Netanyahu Frames Upcoming Election as Choice Between War and Weak Left-Wing Government
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 32%12%
With polls showing him trailing Gadi Eizenkot, Prime Minister Netanyahu launched a campaign strategy linking Eizenkot to Arab-Israeli politicians and positioning himself as a wartime leader.
Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce party merger
Former Prime Ministers Bennett and Lapid merged their parties to form a unified opposition front against Netanyahu, impacting market dynamics by consolidating anti-Netanyahu votes.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot surging ahead of 2026 elections
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 42%5%
New polls indicated a surge in support for Gadi Eizenkot's party, challenging Netanyahu's dominance and reflecting growing public interest in a centrist-security alternative, which was mirrored in market price increases.
Gadi Eizenkot's new party 'Yashar!' gains momentum ahead of elections
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 41%4%
Gadi Eizenkot founded the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu. His party gained traction in polls and prediction markets, leading to a surge in his market price as a potential next prime minister.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure ahead of elections amid war handling and corruption charges
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%1%
Netanyahu's political future is increasingly uncertain due to criticism over his handling of regional wars and ongoing corruption investigations, influencing market perceptions of his electability.
Itamar Ben-Gvir faces international travel bans amid controversy
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
Ben-Gvir was declared persona non grata by several countries, including France and Poland, reflecting international backlash against his policies and actions, which kept his market price very low.
Polls show Netanyahu's Likud gains seat as Bennett's support declines
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%4%
A Channel 12 poll showed Netanyahu's coalition gaining a seat while Naftali Bennett's party continued to decline, reflecting shifting voter preferences and influencing market odds.
Gadi Eisenkot gains momentum as leading challenger to Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 37%8%
Polling and political analysis show Gadi Eisenkot overtaking Naftali Bennett and Benjamin Netanyahu as the main challenger, driving his market odds upward.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot overtaking Naftali Bennett and matching Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 40%6%
Recent polls indicate Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party gaining ground, overtaking Bennett's alliance and matching Netanyahu's Likud, reflecting shifting voter preferences ahead of elections.
Gideon Sa’ar announces plan to recognize Armenian Genocide
Gideon Sa’ar rises to 1%1%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced his intention to submit a draft resolution for Israel to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide, raising his political profile ahead of the election.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party surpassing Likud for first time
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 42%4%
A new poll indicated that Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party could become the largest party in the Knesset, surpassing Netanyahu's Likud, reflecting growing public support for Eizenkot as a centrist-security alternative and boosting his market price.
Gideon Sa’ar proposes official recognition of Armenian Genocide
Gideon Sa’ar dips to 0%1%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced plans to submit a government resolution to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide, a move that could impact Israel's diplomatic relations and raised his political profile.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar proposes recognition of Armenian Genocide
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced plans to submit a draft resolution for Israel to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide, raising his profile in the political arena. While not directly related to the premiership, this increased his visibility and political relevance.
Gadi Eisenkot launches new party Yashar, emerges as main challenger to Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 40%12%
Eisenkot's entry into the race with a new party boosted his profile significantly, reflected in rising market prices as he became the main challenger to Netanyahu.
Netanyahu asserts he saved Israel from destruction amid Iran threat
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 40%5%
At a conference, Netanyahu reiterated his role in protecting Israel from existential threats, aiming to solidify his leadership image ahead of elections, which helped stabilize his market probability.
Benjamin Netanyahu Concludes Testimony in Long-Running Corruption Trial
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%3%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu concluded his testimony after 98 hearings, marking a major milestone in his graft trials as the proceedings prepare to move to the closing-arguments phase.
Netanyahu asserts Israel's security stance at Muni Expo 2026 conference
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%4%
At the Muni Expo 2026 conference, Netanyahu emphasized Israel's security policies and his leadership role, aiming to consolidate support ahead of the election. This public appearance contributed to maintaining his market odds as a leading candidate.
Gadi Eisenkot emerges as main challenger to Netanyahu in polls
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 49%9%
Polls showed Eisenkot leading Netanyahu as the preferred Prime Minister, reflecting growing public support and influencing market prices in his favor.
Gadi Eisenkot launches election campaign for Yashar party
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 41%14%
Eisenkot officially launched his campaign for prime minister and his party Yashar, gaining media attention and polling strength, which led to a significant increase in his market price and positioning him as Netanyahu's main challenger.
Benjamin Netanyahu completes testimony in corruption trials
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 39%4%
Netanyahu concluded his testimony after 98 hearings, marking a significant milestone in his legal battles, which continue to influence public opinion and market perceptions ahead of the election.
Gadi Eizenkot gains momentum as leader of new Yashar party
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 50%13%
Eizenkot's rising profile as a centrist-security candidate and leader of the Yashar party has increased his market odds as a viable alternative to Netanyahu.
Itamar Ben-Gvir demands dismissal of Attorney-General to join Netanyahu coalition
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir set the immediate dismissal of the Attorney-General as a condition for his party to join Netanyahu’s next government, highlighting internal coalition tensions.
Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirms military freedom of action in Lebanon
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 34%1%
Netanyahu's statement reaffirming Israel's military stance in Lebanon aimed to bolster his security credentials ahead of the election, stabilizing his market odds around 34%.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint party 'Together' for 2026 elections
Naftali Bennett dips to 31%4%
Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties into a new alliance called 'Together' to contest the 2026 elections, aiming to present a united front against Netanyahu. Despite this, Bennett's market probability declined over time.
Iran Cites Ben Gvir's Call to 'Burn All of Lebanon' as Clashes Continue Despite Ceasefire
Naftali Bennett drops to 13%8%
Itamar Ben Gvir's incendiary social media post calling to burn Lebanon sparked international condemnation, while opposition figures like Naftali Bennett dismissed him as a clown.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to leave politics
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 33%2%
A Channel 12 poll indicated that 59% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should not run again, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and influencing market perceptions of his re-election chances.
Polls show opposition bloc overtakes Likud for first time, Eizenkot surges
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 39%24%
Opinion polls indicated a significant shift with the opposition bloc, including Bennett-Lapid and Eizenkot's party, overtaking Netanyahu's Likud. Eizenkot's party surged in seats, reflecting growing public desire for change and impacting market odds.
Gadi Eizenkot launches 'Yashar!' party campaign, gaining poll momentum
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 38%14%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot launched his party's campaign emphasizing security and national unity, leading to a surge in polls and market prices, positioning him as a strong contender.
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party surges in polls, overtaking Netanyahu's Likud
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 42%4%
Polls showed former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot's party Yashar surpassing Netanyahu's Likud, marking him as the main challenger and driving his market price upward.
New Polls Show Gadi Eizenkot Surging as Naftali Bennett's Alliance Slips
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 39%11%
New polls published by Kan News and Channel 13 showed Gadi Eizenkot's 'Yashar!' party gaining significant strength, while Bennett's 'Together' alliance lost ground, leading to a major surge in Eizenkot's market price.
Israeli FM Gideon Sa’ar severs contact with EU diplomat over apartheid remark
Gideon Sa’ar dips to 0%1%
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar cut off contact with EU Vice-President Kaja Kallas over her alleged apartheid comparison, highlighting diplomatic tensions that may affect his political standing and market perception.
Zman Yisrael Poll Shows Eizenkot's Yashar Party Tied with Netanyahu's Likud
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 42%14%
A new poll showed Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party neck and neck with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, while Naftali Bennett's Together alliance continued to slip.
Gideon Sa’ar cuts ties with EU official over apartheid comparison
Sa’ar’s strong stance against EU criticism raised his profile among right-wing voters, though his overall market price remained low due to limited broader support.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces mounting political and legal pressure ahead of elections
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 36%4%
Netanyahu's handling of wars in the region and ongoing corruption charges have increased political and legal pressure, leading to fluctuating market support and concerns about his re-election prospects.
Netanyahu faces voter backlash over Iran deal and war handling
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 33%5%
Netanyahu's leadership faced criticism due to his handling of the Iran conflict and the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, leading to a decline in his market support as voters questioned his effectiveness.
US-Iran ceasefire deal sparks political backlash in Israel
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 33%5%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire deal caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty about his leadership.
Gadi Eizenkot leads new Yashar party with centrist-security appeal
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 37%9%
Eizenkot's formation of the Yashar party and his rising profile as a centrist-security alternative increased his market probability, reflecting growing voter interest in an alternative to Netanyahu and Bennett.
Naftali Bennett issues strong Iran warning amid political rivalry
Naftali Bennett drops to 13%12%
Naftali Bennett made assertive statements against Iran, reinforcing his security credentials but failing to significantly improve his electoral prospects, reflected in declining market support.
US-Iran ceasefire deal sparks political backlash in Israel, challenges Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 33%4%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire deal in June 2026 caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty.
Interim US-Iran peace deal sparks anger in Israel, challenges Netanyahu's leadership
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 34%6%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire deal in June 2026 caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty.
Netanyahu declares intention to win re-election amid criticism
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%4%
In a televised press conference, Netanyahu stated he would run and intends to win the upcoming election despite mounting criticism over his handling of the multi-front war and corruption charges, reinforcing his campaign's momentum.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds press conference after US-Iran ceasefire deal
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 30%4%
Netanyahu addressed the nation following a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, asserting Israel's security policies and readiness to maintain operations, reflecting his ongoing leadership role and influencing market confidence in his candidacy.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms he will seek re-election in 2026 vote
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%2%
Netanyahu publicly confirmed his intention to run for re-election, solidifying his position as a leading candidate and impacting market confidence in his chances.
Avigdor Lieberman declares goal to become Prime Minister in upcoming election
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 4%3%
Avigdor Lieberman publicly stated his ambition to become Prime Minister, although his party polls lower than main contenders, causing a slight increase in his market price but limited overall impact.
Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz vows to maintain presence in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire
Defense Minister Israel Katz declared Israel would continue controlling a security zone in southern Lebanon despite a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, signaling a hardline stance that maintained his political relevance but did not significantly shift market prices.
Gadi Eisenkot gains in polls as Netanyahu and Bennett falter after US-Iran MoU
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 28%11%
Following the announcement of a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party gained polling support, while Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett saw declines. Eisenkot's rising profile as a centrist-security candidate boosted his market price, reflecting shifting voter preferences ahead of the election.
Gadi Eizenkot announces new party 'Yashar' and gains political momentum
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 37%14%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot founded the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu, leading to a significant rise in his market odds as a potential next prime minister.
Market data shows Netanyahu leading as top candidate for next Prime Minister
Prediction markets indicate Benjamin Netanyahu as the frontrunner for the next Prime Minister, with Gadi Eizenkot and Naftali Bennett trailing, reflecting current political sentiment.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar meets Somaliland President in Jerusalem
Gideon Sa’ar dips to 0%1%
Gideon Sa’ar’s historic meeting with Somaliland’s president to deepen bilateral ties highlighted his active foreign policy role, but did not significantly impact his market odds, which remain near zero.
Naftali Bennett unveils plan to lower Israel’s cost of living if victorious
Bennett's economic plan aimed at addressing Israel's high cost of living was part of his campaign to regain the premiership, impacting his market support positively.
IsraelVote bets point to Netanyahu victory ahead of next election
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 36%3%
Betting markets showed Benjamin Netanyahu as the top probability to become prime minister, with Gadi Eizenkot and Naftali Bennett trailing, reflecting the competitive race ahead of the October election.
Benjamin Netanyahu completes testimony in long-running corruption trial
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 32%2%
Netanyahu concluded his testimony in his corruption trial, a milestone that maintained political uncertainty and affected his market support negatively.
Netanyahu declares intention to run in elections amid criticism over wartime leadership
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%1%
Facing domestic criticism for his handling of multi-front wars, Netanyahu publicly stated his intention to run and win the upcoming elections, maintaining his market support despite challenges.
Gadi Eizenkot launches new party 'Yashar' and gains political momentum
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 42%18%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot founded the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu and Bennett, leading to a significant rise in his market odds as a potential next prime minister.
Swiss referendum triggers market volatility, Israel PM market activity rises
A Swiss referendum caused global market jitters, coinciding with increased betting activity on Israel's next prime minister, with Netanyahu maintaining a market lead amid broader geopolitical uncertainty.
Netanyahu leads Polymarket wagers amid Swiss Brexit buzz and political uncertainty
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 36%2%
Political uncertainty from international events like the Swiss referendum coincided with increased betting activity on Israel's next prime minister, with Netanyahu maintaining a market lead. This reflected ongoing market focus on coalition dynamics and Netanyahu's status as the frontrunner despite challenges.
Prediction markets show Netanyahu leading but with declining odds
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 36%17%
Political betting markets reflected Netanyahu as the leading candidate for prime minister but with declining odds, while Gadi Eizenkot and Naftali Bennett gained ground, indicating a competitive race ahead of the election.
Gilad Erdan considers forming new right-wing party ahead of elections
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
Gilad Erdan expressed openness to forming a new right-wing party, signaling potential shifts in the political landscape, though his market odds remain low.
Gadi Eizenkot surges in polls challenging Netanyahu's lead
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 41%13%
Polls showed Eizenkot's Yashar! party surging to 37 seats in a broader alliance scenario, challenging Netanyahu's Likud, which remained at 23 seats, reflecting growing market confidence in Eizenkot.
US-Iran ceasefire deal sparks political backlash in Israel
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 34%7%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire deal caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty.
Market activity intensifies amid Swiss referendum, Netanyahu leads Israel PM odds
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 39%4%
Political market activity increased due to a Swiss referendum causing broader market jitters. Despite uncertainty, Netanyahu maintained a lead in market odds for next Israeli Prime Minister, reflecting his continued strong position amid evolving coalition dynamics.
Political uncertainty from Swiss referendum coincides with increased Israel PM market activity
A Swiss referendum on a 'Swiss Brexit' caused volatility in markets, coinciding with increased betting activity on Israel's next Prime Minister. Netanyahu maintained a market lead, reflecting ongoing focus on coalition dynamics and his frontrunner status despite challenges.
Israeli security cabinet approves measures to strengthen West Bank control
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%2%
The security cabinet, including far-right Finance Minister Smotrich, approved measures deepening control over the West Bank, reflecting Netanyahu's policies and impacting political dynamics and market prices.
Naftali Bennett sworn in as Prime Minister, ending Netanyahu's 12-year rule
Naftali Bennett plunges to 6%32%
Naftali Bennett became Israel's Prime Minister after a narrow Knesset vote, ending Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure. This historic change in leadership influenced market expectations about future prime ministers, although Bennett's current market odds have declined since.
Polls show Eisenkot and Bennett tied as main Netanyahu challengers
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 41%23%
Recent opinion polls indicated that Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and Naftali Bennett's Together alliance were polling evenly, intensifying the leadership contest against Netanyahu and influencing market odds accordingly.
Naftali Bennett announces he will not run in upcoming elections
Naftali Bennett plunges to 14%15%
Bennett's decision not to run in the upcoming elections reduced his chances of becoming Prime Minister, reflected in a significant drop in his market price.
Benny Gantz resigns from Netanyahu’s emergency war cabinet, calls for early elections
Benny Gantz dips to 0%1%
Centrist leader Benny Gantz resigned from the emergency government citing disagreements with Netanyahu over Gaza strategy, signaling political instability and boosting his profile as an opposition leader ahead of the 2026 elections.
Polls show tight race between Netanyahu and Bennett-led opposition ahead of election
Recent polls indicate a closely contested election with Netanyahu's Likud and the Bennett-Lapid 'Together' alliance neck and neck. Market odds reflect this polarization, with Netanyahu and Gadi Eizenkot leading, and Bennett gaining support after forming the alliance.
France bans Itamar Ben Gvir over controversial flotilla video, Netanyahu condemns
France imposed a ban on National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir following his release of a video humiliating detained activists, sparking diplomatic tensions. Netanyahu publicly rebuked Ben Gvir, which affected Ben Gvir's market price and highlighted internal government fractures.
Benjamin Netanyahu announces re-election bid amid health and political challenges
Despite health concerns and political opposition, Netanyahu declared his intention to seek re-election in 2026, maintaining his position as a leading candidate. This announcement stabilized his market probability amid ongoing political uncertainty.
Benjamin Netanyahu announces intention to seek re-election amid US President Trump's doubts
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%1%
Despite speculation about his political future, Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed he will run for re-election in 2026, stabilizing his market position amid ongoing security challenges and political controversies.
Netanyahu confirms he will seek re-election despite health and political challenges
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 37%8%
Benjamin Netanyahu officially announced his intention to run in the upcoming election, reaffirming his position as a leading candidate despite health concerns and political opposition. This announcement stabilized his market position.
Likud Confirms Benjamin Netanyahu Will Run for Re-election
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 33%6%
Following public doubts raised by US President Donald Trump, the Likud party officially confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will seek re-election.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms intention to seek re-election in 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%1%
Despite health issues and political challenges, Netanyahu's announcement to run again solidified his position as the leading candidate, supporting his market share as a top contender.
Benjamin Netanyahu announces he will seek re-election in 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party announced that Netanyahu will seek re-election in the upcoming 2026 Israeli legislative election, reaffirming his candidacy amid speculation about his political future. This announcement helped stabilize his market position temporarily.
Benny Gantz resigns from Israel's war cabinet citing strategic disagreements with Netanyahu
Benny Gantz dips to 0%2%
Benny Gantz resigned from the war cabinet, criticizing Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza conflict and signaling political instability within the government. This resignation weakened Netanyahu's coalition and affected Gantz's political prospects.
Netanyahu confirms he will run for re-election amid US doubts
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%4%
Following comments by US President Donald Trump expressing uncertainty about Netanyahu's candidacy, Netanyahu's Likud party confirmed he would run for re-election, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate despite challenges.
Benny Gantz leaves Israeli war cabinet citing lack of post-war Gaza plan
Benny Gantz dips to 0%2%
Gantz announced his departure from the emergency war cabinet, criticizing Netanyahu's refusal to outline a post-war Gaza plan. This political move affected his market support and highlighted divisions within the government.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms he will run for re-election in 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%1%
Netanyahu's Likud party announced he will seek re-election, reaffirming his position as the incumbent and maintaining significant market support despite challenges.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms candidacy for 2026 Israeli elections
Benjamin Netanyahu officially announced he will run for re-election in the October 2026 legislative elections, ending speculation about his retirement and solidifying his position as the incumbent candidate. This confirmation set the stage for a competitive election and influenced market prices for Netanyahu and his challengers.
US-Iran ceasefire deal sparks political backlash in Israel
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%3%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire deal caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty.
Gadi Eisenkot criticizes Netanyahu's government failure in Gaza
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 29%14%
Eisenkot publicly accused Netanyahu's government of failing to achieve its objectives in Gaza, which bolstered his position as a leading challenger and influenced market perceptions of his chances.
Gadi Eisenkot widens lead over Netanyahu as Likud hits lowest polling since June 2025
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 52%12%
Polls showed Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party surpassing Netanyahu's Likud in popularity, boosting Eisenkot's market price and signaling a significant challenge to Netanyahu's incumbency.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot surging, Bennett slipping, Likud still leading
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 34%11%
New polls indicated Gadi Eizenkot gaining strength as a centrist alternative, while Naftali Bennett's support declined and Likud under Netanyahu remained the largest party, reflecting shifting voter preferences.
Benny Gantz resigns from Israel’s war cabinet over Gaza policy dispute
Benny Gantz dips to 1%2%
Benny Gantz resigned from the war cabinet citing disagreements with Netanyahu on Gaza strategy, weakening his political influence and market position.
US President Trump calls Netanyahu after Israel-Iran clashes
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%2%
Following the first exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran since an April ceasefire, US President Donald Trump called Prime Minister Netanyahu, signaling international attention and support. This event underscored Netanyahu's role in security matters but coincided with political pressures reflected in market fluctuations.
Poll shows anti-Netanyahu bloc winning majority; Eisenkot favored as opposition leader
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 40%2%
A poll indicating the anti-Netanyahu bloc could secure a majority and favoring Eisenkot as opposition leader boosted his market odds significantly.
Itamar Ben-Gvir's controversial actions spark diplomatic backlash and travel bans
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Ben-Gvir posted videos taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, leading to diplomatic backlash including travel bans from France and Poland, severely damaging his political standing and market support.
Itamar Ben-Gvir banned from France amid international condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
Far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was banned from France following global criticism of his treatment of detained flotilla activists, negatively affecting his market odds as a Prime Minister candidate.
France bans far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over treatment of flotilla activists
France imposed a ban on Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir due to his controversial treatment of flotilla activists, sparking international diplomatic tensions. This event negatively impacted Ben-Gvir's market prospects as a potential Prime Minister.
Netanyahu gives exclusive CNBC interview discussing Iran conflict and political future
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%2%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to CNBC in June 2026 about the ongoing conflict with Iran and his political plans, reinforcing his image as a strong leader on security issues. This helped stabilize his market position amid election uncertainties.
Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Trump to discuss Iran talks
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%9%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a private meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, emphasizing joint pressure on Iran. This high-profile diplomatic engagement boosted confidence in Netanyahu’s leadership, contributing to a price rise for his outcome.
Netanyahu confirms ongoing conflict with Iran in CNBC interview
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%3%
Netanyahu's statements on the Iran conflict reinforced his image as a decisive leader in security matters, supporting his market position as the likely next Prime Minister.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms he will run in 2026 election despite health concerns
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%4%
Despite recent health issues and political challenges, Netanyahu confirmed his intention to seek re-election in 2026, maintaining his position as the leading candidate in the market.
Benjamin Netanyahu discusses Iran war and election strategy in CNBC interview
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an interview to CNBC discussing the ongoing conflict with Iran and his election strategy, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate and influencing market prices.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms candidacy for 2026 election amid ongoing conflicts
Netanyahu publicly confirmed he will run in the 2026 election, maintaining his status as the leading candidate despite political and military challenges, stabilizing his market odds.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces Israeli backlash over Lebanon strategy
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%4%
Netanyahu faced criticism from hawkish voices in Israel for his cautious approach to Lebanon, impacting his political standing and contributing to fluctuations in his market odds.
Poll shows anti-Netanyahu bloc winning majority; Eisenkot favored as opposition leader
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 38%10%
A poll indicated the anti-Netanyahu bloc could secure a majority if elections were held then, with Gadi Eisenkot preferred over Bennett as opposition leader, boosting Eisenkot's market odds.
Benjamin Netanyahu discusses Iran conflict and election prospects in CNBC interview
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 36%2%
On June 3, 2026, Netanyahu gave an exclusive interview to CNBC discussing the ongoing conflict with Iran and his political future, reinforcing his image as a strong leader in security matters, which supported his market position.
Naftali Bennett unveils 'From Tribes to People' education reform plan
Naftali Bennett jumps to 21%5%
Bennett presented a unifying education reform proposal aimed at fostering a shared Israeli identity, enhancing his appeal to moderate voters ahead of the election.
US-Iran ceasefire deal announced, sparking political backlash in Israel
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%3%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire deal in June 2026 caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty.
US-Iran ceasefire deal sparks political backlash in Israel, Netanyahu's support declines
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 34%6%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty.
Interim US-Iran peace deal sparks anger in Israel, challenges Netanyahu's leadership
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%3%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire deal caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty.
Benny Gantz resigns from Israel’s emergency government over Gaza war dispute
Benny Gantz dips to 0%1%
Defense Minister Benny Gantz resigned from the war cabinet citing disagreements with Netanyahu on the Gaza conflict strategy, weakening his political influence and keeping his market odds low.
Supreme Court orders Netanyahu to explain why he hasn’t fired Ben‑Gvir
Itamar Ben Gvir rises to 1%1%
The Israeli Supreme Court ordered Netanyahu to justify why he had not dismissed Ben‑Gvir, intensifying scrutiny of the far‑right minister and dragging his market probability down from 1 % to 0 % for a short period before a modest rebound to 1 %.
Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana leads large Israeli delegation at New York Israel Day Parade
Amir Ohana, Knesset Speaker, led a record-sized delegation at the Israel Day Parade in New York City, reinforcing his visibility and political stature, though this did not translate into a significant market price increase.
Netanyahu and Sa'ar rebuke Ben-Gvir over controversial Gaza flotilla video
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 36%1%
Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar publicly criticized Itamar Ben-Gvir for filming himself taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, sparking diplomatic backlash and reducing Ben-Gvir's market support.
Naftali Bennett unveils plan to lower Israel’s cost of living
Naftali Bennett drops to 31%7%
Naftali Bennett unveiled a plan to rehabilitate Israel's economy and address the high cost of living, aiming to boost his appeal ahead of the election, though his market price continued to decline amid strong competition.
Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir Videos Highlight Growing Political Polarization
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%2%
Contrasting videos from Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir sparked intense public debate, highlighting Netanyahu's deep political reliance on his far-right coalition partner despite past reservations.
Benjamin Netanyahu warns against Bennett-Lapid alliance, claims it will rely on Arab parties
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%4%
Netanyahu released a video warning voters that the Bennett-Lapid merger would lead to a government dependent on Arab parties, aiming to consolidate his right-wing base and frame the opposition as untrustworthy. This political messaging affected market perceptions of Netanyahu's chances.
Netanyahu and Ben Gvir Videos Highlight Growing Domestic Political Polarisation
Naftali Bennett dips to 39%1%
A Shavuot video by Netanyahu and a controversial flotilla video by Ben Gvir highlight their shared reliance on domestic culture wars and political polarization, cementing Ben Gvir's influence over the coalition.
Itamar Ben-Gvir Sparks International Outrage Over Flotilla Activists Video
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir released a controversial video taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, drawing international condemnation and highlighting coalition polarization.
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's controversial video sparks outrage
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 42%12%
Itamar Ben-Gvir released a video taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, triggering international outrage and highlighting the polarizing nature of Netanyahu's coalition partners. This reinforced perceptions of Netanyahu's reliance on far-right factions, affecting his market position.
Gadi Eisenkot launches new party 'Yashar' and gains momentum
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 28%15%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot founded the centrist party 'Yashar', gaining popularity as a pragmatic alternative to Netanyahu and Bennett. His rise in polls and market prices reflected growing public support and positioned him as the main challenger.
Knesset Passes First Reading of Bill for Early Dissolution and September Vote
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 35%6%
The Knesset passed a bill in its first reading to dissolve parliament early and move the election forward to September, which intensified the campaign and shifted focus to alternative candidates like Gadi Eizenkot.
Gadi Eisenkot gains prominence with new party 'Yashar' amid election campaign
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 27%13%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot founded a new party 'Yashar' and gained popularity as a potential prime minister candidate, appealing to voters dissatisfied with Netanyahu and the Bennett-Lapid alliance. His rise shifted market probabilities in his favor.
Israel's Knesset advances bill to dissolve itself, triggering early elections
The Knesset voted overwhelmingly to advance a bill for early dissolution, potentially moving the election date earlier than October 27, increasing political uncertainty and affecting market odds.
Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein progress toward forming new right-wing party
Gilad Erdan rises to 4%3%
Former Likud ministers Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein made significant progress in forming a new right-wing party to challenge Netanyahu's Likud, introducing a potential alternative on the right and affecting Erdan's market price slightly upward.
Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Sa'ar publicly rebuke Ben-Gvir over flotilla video
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar condemned Ben-Gvir's video as damaging to Israel's values and international standing, signaling internal government tensions. This public rebuke contributed to market reassessment of Ben-Gvir's political viability and Netanyahu's reliance on far-right allies.
Gilad Erdan considers forming new right-wing party to challenge Netanyahu
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
Former Likud minister and ambassador Gilad Erdan announced he is considering establishing a new right-wing party as an alternative to Netanyahu's Likud, aiming to attract center-right voters dissatisfied with the current coalition. This potential new party influenced market speculation and price movements.
Gilad Erdan resigns from Israel Aerospace Industries board amid political speculation
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
Gilad Erdan resigned from the board of Israel Aerospace Industries, fueling speculation about his potential return to politics and the formation of a new right-wing party, though his market odds remain low.
Itamar Ben-Gvir's video of detainees sparks international condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video showing detained flotilla activists in harsh conditions, causing international backlash and sanctions from several countries. This controversy contributed to his market price falling to near zero.
Gilad Erdan considers forming new right-wing party to challenge Netanyahu
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
Gilad Erdan publicly stated he was exploring the creation of a new right-wing party as an alternative to Netanyahu's Likud, signaling potential shifts in the right-wing political landscape ahead of the election, though his market odds remained low.
Polls show Netanyahu faces tough re-election battle amid divisive government policies
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 45%16%
Polls indicated that Netanyahu's government was highly divisive and that he faced a challenging re-election campaign, with opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid forming a new party. This contributed to a decline in Netanyahu's market support and a rise for Bennett.
Knesset passes bill to dissolve itself, advancing 2026 election date
Amid coalition deadlock, the Knesset voted unanimously to dissolve itself, moving the election date forward and intensifying the political contest for prime minister.
France bans Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering country over flotilla incident
Following videos showing Ben-Gvir confronting detained Gaza flotilla activists, France declared him persona non grata and banned his entry, causing diplomatic backlash and negatively impacting his market prospects.
France Bans National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir Over Flotilla Video
France banned Itamar Ben-Gvir from its territory following international outrage over a video showing him taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, drawing rebukes from Netanyahu.
France bans Israeli Minister Ben-Gvir from its territory amid flotilla video outrage
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Following international condemnation of Ben-Gvir's video humiliating detained Gaza flotilla activists, France banned him from entering its territory and called for EU sanctions. This diplomatic rebuke underscored the political cost of Ben-Gvir's actions, leading to a sharp drop in his market odds.
France bans Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering country
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
France imposed a travel ban on Ben-Gvir due to his controversial actions, severely damaging his political prospects and market odds as a Prime Minister candidate.
Amir Ohana leads record-sized delegation at Israel Day Parade in New York
Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana's prominent public appearance at a major international event increased his visibility and political stature, though it did not significantly affect his market odds for prime ministership.
Gadi Eisenkot launches election campaign, vows to unify after 'chaos' wrought by current government
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 51%11%
Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot launched his campaign for Prime Minister, positioning himself as a unifying figure and strong challenger to Netanyahu, which increased his market support significantly.
Gadi Eizenkot emerges as a rising political figure with new party Yashar
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 42%17%
Gadi Eizenkot, former IDF Chief of Staff, founded the Yashar party emphasizing security and national unity. His growing popularity among moderate and centrist voters boosted his market price, positioning him as a strong contender for Prime Minister.
France bans far-right Israeli minister Itamar Ben Gvir
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
France imposed a ban on Itamar Ben Gvir due to his controversial behavior, highlighting international criticism of his far-right politics. His market support dropped to near zero, reflecting diminished chances.
French government bans Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering France
France imposed a five-year entry ban on far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir due to his controversial actions, including a video mocking Gaza flotilla detainees. This international backlash further diminished his political prospects and market odds.
France bans Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over flotilla detainee taunts
Following videos of Ben-Gvir mocking detained Gaza flotilla activists, France banned him from entering its territory, drawing international condemnation and criticism from Israeli officials, damaging his political standing and reducing his market chances.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts video taunting Gaza flotilla detainees, sparking international outcry
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video showing detained Gaza flotilla activists being taunted, leading to international condemnation and sanctions from several countries, damaging his political standing and reducing market support.
Israel’s coalition collapses amid tightening polls around Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 36%6%
The collapse of Israel's governing coalition in May 2026 amid tightening polls around Netanyahu weakened his position and boosted the prospects of challengers like Gadi Eizenkot, impacting market probabilities.
France bans Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering its territory
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
France declared far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir persona non grata and banned him from entering the country, reflecting international backlash against his policies and rhetoric, which contributed to his market price dropping to zero.
Poland Imposes Entry Ban on National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir
Poland banned Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering its territory for five years following international condemnation over the treatment of detained activists.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts video taunting Gaza flotilla detainees, sparking international condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video showing detained Gaza flotilla activists being taunted, leading to diplomatic backlash including travel bans from France and Poland. This controversy further diminished Ben-Gvir's chances in the prime minister market, reflected in his low and declining price.
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar criticizes Itamar Ben Gvir over Gaza flotilla video
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 36%2%
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar publicly rebuked National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for filming himself taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, contributing to diplomatic backlash and a drop in Ben Gvir’s market support.
France bans far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over treatment of flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
France declared Itamar Ben-Gvir persona non grata and banned him from entering its territory due to his controversial treatment of detained flotilla activists. This international condemnation led to a sharp decline in his market odds as a potential prime minister.
France and Poland impose travel bans on Itamar Ben-Gvir
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Following controversial actions by Ben-Gvir, including taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, France and Poland imposed travel bans on him, severely damaging his international standing and market prospects.
Prime Minister Netanyahu criticizes Minister Ben Gvir over flotilla video
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%3%
Following the controversy over the flotilla activists video, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly criticized Itamar Ben Gvir's conduct as not reflecting Israeli values, signaling internal government tensions and affecting political dynamics. This contributed to a decline in Ben Gvir's market support and highlighted divisions within the ruling coalition.
France bans Itamar Ben-Gvir over controversial actions against Gaza flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
France imposed a travel ban on far-right minister Ben-Gvir due to his provocative behavior, damaging his international standing and reducing his market support.
Poland and France impose travel bans on Itamar Ben-Gvir
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Following controversial actions by Itamar Ben-Gvir, Poland and France imposed travel bans on him in May 2026, damaging his international standing and reducing his market support as a viable prime minister candidate.
Itamar Ben-Gvir banned from France amid international condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
Far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was banned from France due to his controversial treatment of detained flotilla activists, negatively affecting his market odds as a Prime Minister candidate.
Poll shows anti-Netanyahu bloc winning majority; Eisenkot preferred as PM
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 38%22%
A poll published by The Times of Israel's sister site showed the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc could win a majority if elections were held then, with Gadi Eisenkot preferred over Netanyahu as prime minister. This shifted market sentiment, boosting Eisenkot's and weakening Netanyahu's probabilities.
Naftali Bennett criticizes Netanyahu's plan for broad national government post-election
Naftali Bennett dips to 38%2%
Naftali Bennett publicly criticized Netanyahu's promise to form a broad national government including far-right leaders, signaling deep opposition and political polarization ahead of the election. This statement reinforced Bennett's position as Netanyahu's main challenger and influenced market perceptions.
Israeli parliament approves preliminary bill for dissolution, paving way for early elections
The Knesset approved a bill for its dissolution in a preliminary reading with unanimous support, marking the first step toward early elections likely between September and October 2026. This reflected the deepening fractures in Netanyahu's coalition and increased market uncertainty about his tenure.
Knesset votes overwhelmingly to advance bill dissolving parliament
The Israeli Knesset voted 110-0 in a preliminary reading to advance a bill to dissolve itself, signaling a move toward early elections amid coalition tensions over military conscription exemptions. This development increased market expectations for early elections and impacted Netanyahu's political standing.
Itamar Ben-Gvir taunts Gaza-bound flotilla activists, sparking international backlash
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Ben-Gvir’s provocative video of taunting activists led to international condemnation and France banning him from its territory, contributing to his market price falling to zero.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts controversial video taunting Gaza flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Ben-Gvir's video showing detained activists being taunted sparked international outrage and diplomatic backlash, leading to travel bans and a collapse in his market support.
Netanyahu and Sa'ar Rebuke Ben-Gvir Over Controversial Gaza Flotilla Video
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 36%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar publicly criticized National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir for filming himself taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, sparking diplomatic backlash.
Itamar Ben-Gvir banned from entering France amid flotilla video controversy
France imposed a travel ban on far-right Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir following his controversial video mocking detained flotilla activists, affecting his international standing and market perception.
Netanyahu and Sa'ar Publicly Rebuke Ben Gvir Over Controversial Gaza Flotilla Video
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 35%6%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir released a video showing him taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, sparking international outrage and rare public condemnation from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar.
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir posts controversial video of Gaza flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%3%
Itamar Ben Gvir released a video showing detained Gaza-bound flotilla activists kneeling with hands tied, provoking international condemnation and criticism from Israeli leaders including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar. This incident damaged Ben Gvir's public image and market support, reflected in his price decline to 1%.
Naftali Bennett Reaffirms Platform of Prime Minister Term Limits
Naftali Bennett rises to 39%1%
Naftali Bennett held a press conference in Jerusalem reiterating his platform of establishing an eight-year term limit for the post of prime minister if elected.
Itamar Ben-Gvir's controversial video mocking Gaza flotilla detainees sparks international backlash
Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video mocking detained Gaza flotilla activists, leading to condemnation from Israeli officials and foreign governments, including France banning his entry, damaging his political standing.
Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early election
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 36%17%
Israel’s Knesset voted to dissolve itself after the ultra‑Orthodox parties withdrew support for Netanyahu, prompting an early election. The move signalled a weakening of Netanyahu’s coalition and caused his market price to fall sharply.
Naftali Bennett proposes national hasbara authority to fix Israel's PR crisis
Naftali Bennett plunges to 17%24%
Naftali Bennett criticized Ben-Gvir's social media antics harming Israel's international image and proposed a comprehensive plan to improve Israel's public diplomacy. This move aimed to rehabilitate Bennett's political standing and contrast with Ben-Gvir's controversial behavior, influencing market perceptions of their electoral prospects.
France bans Itamar Ben-Gvir over controversial actions
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
France imposed a travel ban on far-right Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir due to his provocative behavior, diminishing his international standing and market support as a prime minister candidate.
Netanyahu vows to build broad national government ahead of election
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 36%4%
Netanyahu promised to form a broad national government post-election, aiming to rebuild his current coalition including far-right leaders, which affected market perceptions of his coalition stability and electoral prospects.
Netanyahu and Sa'ar Condemn Ben-Gvir Over Gaza Flotilla Detainee Video
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir faced severe domestic and international backlash after posting a video mocking detained Gaza flotilla activists, drawing public rebukes from Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar.
Israel's Parliament Approves Preliminary Bill to Dissolve Itself
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 36%8%
The Knesset approved a bill to dissolve itself, threatening to bring the national election forward and increasing political uncertainty for the ruling coalition.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts video showing detained flotilla activists abused
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
Ben-Gvir's video showing abuse of detained activists caused international outrage and political backlash, leading to a decline in his market probability due to negative publicity and diplomatic fallout.
Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve Knesset, triggering early elections
The Knesset voted overwhelmingly to advance a bill to dissolve itself, potentially moving the election date earlier than the scheduled October 27, 2026. This political development increased uncertainty and influenced market odds for the prime ministership.
Poland and France impose travel bans on Itamar Ben-Gvir
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Following controversial actions by Itamar Ben-Gvir, Poland and France imposed travel bans on him, damaging his international standing and reducing his market support as a viable prime minister candidate.
Netanyahu urges massive war with Lebanon after Hezbollah drone attack
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 34%10%
Netanyahu’s public call for a “massive war” with Lebanon after a Hezbollah drone strike, coupled with speculation about an Iran‑US‑Israel coordination, led to a sharp decline in his market price from 44 % to 34 % as voters feared heightened conflict.
Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, triggering early elections
The Knesset's dissolution set the stage for the October 27 election, intensifying the political contest and impacting market positioning ahead of the vote.
France bans Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over treatment of Gaza flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
France imposed a travel ban on Itamar Ben-Gvir following his controversial video mocking detained Gaza flotilla activists, causing international diplomatic fallout and damaging his political standing, reflected in his low market odds.
Israeli parliament advances bill to dissolve itself, triggering early elections
The Knesset approved a bill to dissolve itself, potentially bringing forward elections before the scheduled October 27 date, increasing political uncertainty and impacting market prices for prime ministerial candidates.
Netanyahu calls for broad national government ahead of elections
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 42%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly vowed to build a broad national government, reaching out to rivals including Bennett and Lieberman. This was seen as a pre-election rebranding effort to consolidate center-right voters and maintain his coalition, affecting market perceptions of his chances.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts taunting videos of detained Global Sumud Flotilla activists
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted videos mocking detained activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla, provoking international condemnation and bans from countries like France. This controversy negatively affected his political viability and market price.
Benny Gantz threatens to quit government if no post-war Gaza plan is presented
Benny Gantz dips to 1%4%
Gantz's threat to resign over the lack of a post-war Gaza plan highlighted political tensions and contributed to his declining market odds.
Itamar Ben-Gvir's controversial Gaza flotilla video sparks diplomatic backlash
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, leading to travel bans from France and Poland and damaging his international standing, reflected in his declining market support.
Avigdor Lieberman declares goal to become Prime Minister in upcoming election
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 4%2%
Lieberman publicly stated his ambition to become Prime Minister, which slightly increased his market probability though it remained low compared to main contenders.
Avigdor Lieberman declares ambition to become next Prime Minister
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 5%2%
Avigdor Lieberman publicly stated his goal to become Israel's next prime minister despite his party polling behind main opposition. This declaration slightly increased his market odds and positioned him as a potential contender.
Avigdor Lieberman declares goal to become Israel’s next prime minister
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 6%4%
Yisrael Beytenu party chairman Avigdor Lieberman publicly stated his ambition to become Israel’s next prime minister in the upcoming election, despite his party polling behind the main opposition. This declaration slightly increased his market odds.
Avigdor Lieberman expresses ambition to become prime minister
Avigdor Lieberman dips to 4%1%
Lieberman publicly stated his goal to become prime minister, but his market probability remained low due to limited coalition prospects and competition from stronger candidates.
Itamar Ben Gvir posts controversial video taunting detained flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir posted a video showing him taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, sparking international condemnation and diplomatic backlash, which further diminished his market odds for becoming prime minister.
Benny Gantz resigns from Netanyahu’s war cabinet, calls for early elections
Benny Gantz dips to 0%1%
Gantz resigned from the emergency war cabinet citing disagreements with Netanyahu over Gaza strategy, weakening Netanyahu’s position and causing a drop in Gantz’s market probability to near zero.
Israeli Naval Forces Intercept Gaza-Bound Global Sumud Flotilla
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Israeli naval forces intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters and detained hundreds of foreign activists. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir sparked international outrage by posting a video taunting the bound detainees.
Yoaz Hendel launches The Reservists party focusing on universal conscription
Yoaz Hendel rises to 1%1%
Yoaz Hendel founded The Reservists party advocating for universal military conscription and stronger penalties for draft evasion, entering the 2026 election race and maintaining a small but stable market presence.
Naftali Bennett officially registers new party Bennett 2026
Naftali Bennett drops to 38%11%
Naftali Bennett officially registered his new party Bennett 2026 in April 2025 and announced his candidacy for Prime Minister, signaling a political comeback and challenging Netanyahu's leadership, which influenced market prices for Bennett.
Naftali Bennett criticizes Itamar Ben-Gvir's flotilla video for harming Israel's international standing
Bennett publicly condemned Ben-Gvir's release of the controversial flotilla detainee video, framing it as damaging to Israel's global image and strengthening his campaign to fix Israel's propaganda efforts, impacting his political positioning positively.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts videos showing detained Gaza-bound flotilla activists, sparking international condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%2%
Ben-Gvir's release of videos depicting harsh treatment of detained activists led to diplomatic backlash and sanctions from several countries, damaging his and his party's political standing and reducing his market odds.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts video taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, sparking global condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%3%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video showing detained Gaza flotilla activists in humiliating conditions, leading to international outrage and diplomatic protests from multiple countries. This incident caused a sharp decline in his market price due to reputational damage.
Itamar Ben-Gvir Sparks Outrage by Posting Videos Taunting Detained Flotilla Activists
Itamar Ben Gvir rises to 1%1%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted controversial videos of handcuffed Global Sumud Flotilla activists, drawing widespread international condemnation and travel bans.
Naftali Bennett holds election event for women in Tel Aviv
Bennett actively campaigned with targeted events to increase support, reflecting his efforts to regain political influence ahead of the election.
Yair Lapid declares readiness for early elections with Bennett alliance
Opposition leader Yair Lapid publicly stated that he and Naftali Bennett's alliance 'Together' are prepared for early elections following the governing coalition's proposal to dissolve parliament, signaling increased political uncertainty and impacting market dynamics.
Gadi Eizenkot proposes unified electoral list with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 22%5%
Former IDF Chief Gadi Eizenkot proposed a joint electoral list with Bennett and Lapid to form a large centrist bloc, boosting his political profile and market price as a leading opposition figure.
Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein Reach Initial Agreements on New Right-Wing Party
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
Discussions of a 'Likud B' party led by disgruntled Likud members like Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein emerged, aiming to provide a right-wing alternative not led by Netanyahu.
Poll finds Eizenkot’s Yashar ahead of Bennett’s Together alliance
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 41%22%
A Channel 12 News poll released on 12 May showed Gadi Eizenkot’s Yashar party pulling ahead of Bennett’s Together alliance, giving Eizenkot a significant boost that lifted his market price from the low‑teens to over 30 %.
Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party surges in polls, challenging Bennett and Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 27%10%
Former IDF Chief Gadi Eizenkot's party gained significant support in polls, rising past Bennett and running neck and neck with Netanyahu's Likud. This boosted Eizenkot's market price and introduced a three-way race dynamic.
Gadi Eisenkot launches Yashar party and surges in polls as Netanyahu's main challenger
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 29%28%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot founded the Yashar party in 2025 and by mid-2026 had surged in polls, overtaking Bennett's Together and Netanyahu's Likud in some surveys, positioning himself as the leading challenger with a centrist-security platform.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party surging past Bennett-Lapid alliance
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 28%10%
A major poll showed Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party gaining significant support, surpassing the Bennett-Lapid alliance and running neck-and-neck with Netanyahu's Likud, increasing Eisenkot's market odds.
Lieberman unveils new security‑economic platform ahead of election
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 5%3%
Lieberman held a press conference in Tel Aviv announcing a new security‑economic platform ahead of the October election, raising his visibility and pushing his market price from 2 % to 5 % over a few days.
Yoaz Hendel criticizes Itamar Ben Gvir's security ministry performance
Yoaz Hendel sharply criticized National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for failing to restore governance and contributing to the growth of 'Arab autonomy' in the Negev and Galilee, highlighting political tensions within the right-wing bloc.
Netanyahu’s approval dips as US envoys push for Gaza ceasefire phase two
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 39%4%
U.S. officials urging faster progress on the Gaza ceasefire highlighted frustrations with Netanyahu’s pace, contributing to a modest price decline.
Netanyahu confirms killing Hezbollah commander in Beirut airstrike
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 43%3%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly confirmed an Israeli airstrike killing a Hezbollah commander in Beirut, reinforcing his security credentials amid ongoing regional conflict. This event temporarily bolstered his market standing but did not reverse longer-term declines due to political challenges.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts controversial video referencing death penalty
Ben-Gvir posted a provocative video on social media referencing the death penalty for Palestinian detainees, sparking international outrage and further diminishing his political prospects.
Israeli security cabinet approves measures to strengthen West Bank control
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%3%
Israel's security cabinet, including far-right Finance Minister Smotrich, approved measures to deepen control over the West Bank, reflecting Netanyahu's government's policies and affecting political dynamics.
Avigdor Lieberman launches 'decisive outcome' campaign, vows not to sit with Netanyahu
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 4%2%
Lieberman launched a campaign emphasizing a decisive election outcome and declared he would not join a government led by Netanyahu, affecting his market position as a potential Prime Minister candidate.
Avigdor Lieberman calls for national referendum on constitution
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 4%3%
Lieberman emphasized constitutional reform as a key part of his election campaign, aiming to influence the next government's agenda. His party Yisrael Beiteinu remains a minor contender in the Prime Minister race.
Former ISA Chief Yoram Cohen Joins Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 13%5%
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party gained significant momentum and right-wing credibility as former Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen officially joined the faction.
Gadi Eizenkot announces entry into politics with new party Yashar
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 5%3%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot entered politics with the Yashar party, gaining rapid support as a centrist-security candidate, boosting his market odds significantly.
Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party gains momentum following US-Iran MoU announcement
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 26%15%
Following the announcement of a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party saw a rise in polling and market support, while Netanyahu and Bennett lost ground. This event highlighted Eizenkot's growing influence and shifted market probabilities.
Israeli strikes kill civilians in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
Continued Israeli strikes in Gaza, despite the ceasefire, resulted in civilian casualties, highlighting ongoing conflict challenges under Netanyahu's leadership and affecting his market support.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 44%6%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, involving demilitarization and troop withdrawal, highlighting international pressure on his government and affecting his political outlook.
Israeli Minister Ben-Gvir celebrates birthday with noose-decorated cake
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
Itamar Ben-Gvir's birthday party featured a cake with a noose symbolizing the controversial death penalty law for Palestinian abductees, attended by senior police and political figures. This event highlighted Ben-Gvir's divisive image and raised concerns about his influence over law enforcement, contributing to a decline in his market probability.
Avigdor Lieberman unveils new security-economic platform ahead of election
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 5%3%
Lieberman announced a new security-economic platform, raising his visibility and pushing his market price from 2% to 5%, signaling his positioning as a key player in the election.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 41%3%
US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing pressure on his government to act, which influenced market perceptions of his leadership prospects.
Bennett and Lapid's 'Together' alliance faces challenges in maintaining voter support
Naftali Bennett plunges to 15%23%
Following the initial surge, the 'Together' alliance led by Bennett and Lapid saw declining poll numbers, reflecting difficulties in unifying diverse voter bases and ideological differences within the coalition.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new party Yashar to challenge Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 24%14%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot founded the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu, which boosted his market odds significantly.
Trump and Netanyahu publicly differ on Israeli strike on Iranian gas field
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 39%5%
A public disagreement between Trump and Netanyahu over an Israeli attack on Iran's gas field raised questions about their coordination, causing market uncertainty and a temporary dip in Netanyahu's probability.
Reservists party led by Hendel polls at 4‑5 % in latest survey
Yoaz Hendel rises to 1%1%
A Lazar‑Panel4All poll released at the end of April gave the newly formed “Reservists” party led by Yoaz Hendel a modest 4‑5 % of the vote, nudging his market price from 0 % to 1 %.
Gadi Eisenkot launches election campaign, pledges unity after government chaos
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 39%11%
Eisenkot officially launched his party's election campaign, emphasizing unification and stability, which boosted his market support significantly.
Director General of Israel’s Central Elections Committee Orly Ades resigns months before vote
Orly Ades, a key figure in managing Israel's elections, resigned unexpectedly, raising concerns about election administration stability ahead of the critical 2026 vote.
Naftali Bennett’s poll rebound after coalition talks with centrist parties
Naftali Bennett jumps to 41%13%
Bennett’s reported negotiations with centrist factions revived his prospects as a coalition partner, lifting his market price.
Israel objects to US announcement of Gaza peace oversight committee
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%2%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting tensions in US-Israel coordination and affecting Netanyahu's political standing.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 43%1%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing diplomatic pressure and affecting his political calculations ahead of the election.
Polls show 'Together' party as largest opposition bloc but no clear majority
Naftali Bennett dips to 38%3%
Following the Bennett-Lapid merger, polls showed the new party as the largest opposition faction, essentially neck-and-neck with Likud, but no bloc achieving a clear majority. This maintained a competitive electoral landscape and kept market odds close between Netanyahu and Bennett.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce party merger to challenge Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett rises to 41%2%
Former Prime Ministers Bennett and Lapid merged their parties into a unified list called 'Together' to consolidate opposition against Netanyahu ahead of the 2026 elections. This alliance was seen as a major realignment in Israel's center-right politics and boosted Bennett's position as a leading challenger.
First Polls After Bennett-Lapid Merger Show No Majority for Anti-Netanyahu Bloc
Naftali Bennett drops to 30%11%
Initial public opinion polls following the high-profile merger of Bennett and Lapid projected that their unified 'Together' party failed to secure an outright majority, dampening Bennett's momentum.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint run under 'Together' alliance
Naftali Bennett jumps to 40%5%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties to contest the 2026 election jointly under the alliance named 'Together', aiming to consolidate centrist and right-wing votes. This political move affected market perceptions of both leaders' chances.
Netanyahu's main rivals form a rightwing-centrist super coalition
Naftali Bennett surges to 38%25%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, two of Netanyahu's main rivals, joined forces to form a super coalition named 'Together' to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election. This alliance was seen as a significant political development, increasing market confidence in Bennett's chances.
Bennett and Lapid announce new 'Together, Led by Bennett' party to challenge Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett rises to 38%2%
On April 27, 2026, Bennett and Lapid officially announced their unified party to contest the October elections, emphasizing a Zionist unity government and excluding Arab parties from coalition talks. This announcement reinforced Bennett's leadership role and opposition strength, influencing market prices by bolstering Bennett's prospects and challenging Netanyahu's dominance.
Bennett-Lapid ticket announced to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming election
Naftali Bennett jumps to 40%5%
The announcement of the Bennett-Lapid joint ticket consolidated opposition forces and increased market confidence in Bennett's chances against Netanyahu.
Netanyahu Launches Counter-Offensive Warning Against Bennett-Lapid Alliance
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 40%6%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video warning voters that the new Bennett-Lapid alliance would rely on Arab parties, attempting to consolidate his right-wing base.
Israel objects to US-led Gaza Board of Peace appointments
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 44%6%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting diplomatic tensions that influenced market perceptions of Netanyahu's political challenges.
Netanyahu faces ethics debate over retouched images of his wife
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%2%
The revelation of heavily retouched official photos of Netanyahu’s wife sparked ethics concerns and public trust issues, slightly affecting Netanyahu’s market support ahead of the election.
Gadi Eizenkot founds new party 'Yashar' aiming to restore hope and unity
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 20%2%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot announced the founding of the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative and gaining market attention as a potential prime minister candidate.
Bennett invites Gadi Eisenkot to join opposition alliance; Eisenkot welcomes new grouping
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 19%2%
Following the Bennett-Lapid merger, Bennett invited former IDF Chief Gadi Eisenkot to join the alliance, which Eisenkot welcomed, signaling a strengthening of the centrist opposition bloc and boosting Eisenkot's market odds.
Protests erupt against Netanyahu government amid security concerns
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 41%6%
Large-scale protests against Netanyahu's government erupted, focusing on security and governance issues, leading to a decline in his market probability and a rise in opposition candidates' chances.
Bennett and Lapid announce joint 'Together' alliance for 2026 election
Naftali Bennett jumps to 35%7%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid formed a joint political alliance called 'Together' to consolidate opposition against Netanyahu, aiming to increase their electoral strength. This alliance initially boosted Bennett's market support but later failed to surpass Netanyahu or Eizenkot.
Iran-backed Hezbollah rejects Lebanon-Israel talks outcomes
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%2%
Hezbollah declared it would not abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks, signaling ongoing regional instability and challenges to Netanyahu's security agenda, influencing market sentiment.
Bennett and Lapid announce merger into 'Together' party to contest 2026 elections
Naftali Bennett drops to 41%8%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties into a joint list named 'Together,' with Bennett as leader, aiming to unite the opposition against Netanyahu. This alliance boosted Bennett's and Eizenkot's market odds while reducing Netanyahu's chances.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint run under new alliance 'Together'
Naftali Bennett jumps to 38%8%
Bennett and Lapid merged their parties to form a centrist alliance aiming to challenge Netanyahu, impacting Bennett's market probability and the overall race dynamics.
Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid form alliance 'Together' for 2026 election
Naftali Bennett jumps to 34%11%
Naftali Bennett registered a new party Bennett 2026 and formed an alliance with Yesh Atid called Together, aiming to consolidate centrist votes. This alliance initially boosted Bennett's market price but was insufficient to challenge Eizenkot's rising momentum.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint party 'Together' for 2026 elections
Yair Lapid plunges to 1%49%
The announcement of the joint party 'Together' led to a decline in Naftali Bennett's individual market price as the alliance consolidated support, affecting individual candidacies.
Israel objects to US announcement of Gaza peace oversight committee
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 40%4%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, publicly opposed the US announcement of a Gaza oversight committee without Israeli coordination, reflecting diplomatic tensions and impacting Netanyahu's political standing.
Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid form alliance 'Together' for 2026 election
Naftali Bennett jumps to 37%7%
Naftali Bennett's formation of a new party and alliance with Yesh Atid signaled a renewed political challenge, causing a shift in market prices reflecting his increased chances.
Bennett and Lapid merge parties into “Together”, inviting Eizenkot, Lieberman and Hendel
Naftali Bennett plunges to 13%22%
The opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced the merger of their parties into a single list called “Together”. The announcement also opened the door for former IDF chief Gadi Eizenkot and Yisrael Beiteinu chief Avigdor Lieberman to join the alliance, while Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists party pledged support. The news lifted market odds for Bennett, Eizenkot, Lieberman and Hendel and pulled down Netanyahu’s price.
Hezbollah official rejects Lebanon-Israel US talks outcomes
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 9%8%
Hezbollah's refusal to abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks highlighted ongoing regional instability, complicating Netanyahu's diplomatic efforts and impacting his market support.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 39%4%
Pressure from U.S. envoys on Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's next phase highlighted diplomatic challenges and influenced market perceptions of his ability to manage peace efforts.
Bennett and Lapid unite under “Together”, inviting Eizenkot and Lieberman
Naftali Bennett plunges to 15%20%
Bennett and Lapid announced the merger of their parties into the joint “Together” list, with Bennett as the leader. The deal also opened the door for former defense chief Gadi Eizenkot and Yisrael Beitenu chief Avigdor Lieberman to join the alliance, dramatically reshaping the opposition bloc and lifting Bennett’s and Eizenkot’s market odds while denting Netanyahu’s.
Naftali Bennett forms alliance 'Together' with Yair Lapid for 2026 election
Naftali Bennett surges to 41%17%
Naftali Bennett's new party Bennett 2026 allied with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid to contest the election jointly, aiming to consolidate centrist votes and improve their chances against Netanyahu, causing a temporary rise in Bennett's market odds.
Gadi Eisenkot proposes unified electoral list with Bennett and Lapid
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 20%6%
Eisenkot's proposal for a joint electoral list with Bennett and Lapid aimed to form a large centrist bloc, boosting his political profile and market price as a leading opposition figure.
Naftali Bennett urges unity with Gadi Eizenkot to defeat Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett jumps to 41%9%
Facing slipping poll numbers, Naftali Bennett publicly called for a unity agreement with Gadi Eizenkot to consolidate opposition forces against Netanyahu. This strategic move boosted Eizenkot's profile and market price as a leading opposition candidate while signaling Bennett's weakening position.
Benjamin Netanyahu reveals early-stage prostate cancer diagnosis and successful treatment
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 36%6%
Netanyahu disclosed he was diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer but has completed treatment successfully, raising concerns about his health and political future, which contributed to a decline in his market support.
Benjamin Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu revealed he was diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer but has completed successful treatment, reassuring the public about his health. This announcement affected market perceptions of his political viability and leadership stability.
Benjamin Netanyahu Reveals Prostate Cancer Diagnosis and Successful Treatment
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 48%6%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and successfully completed targeted radiation therapy, reassuring the public of his health.
Defense Minister Israel Katz announces Israel will stay indefinitely in lands seized in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza
Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in occupied territories, signaling a hardline security stance that impacts political discourse and voter sentiment ahead of elections.
Gideon Sa’ar leads public diplomacy expansion with $730M budget
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar secured approval for a large public diplomacy budget and a dedicated unit, raising his political profile and market odds as a key player in the upcoming election.
Benny Gantz resigns from emergency government over Gaza conflict disagreements
Benny Gantz dips to 0%1%
Benny Gantz resigned from the war cabinet citing disagreements with Netanyahu on Gaza strategy, weakening his political standing and market probability as a prime ministerial candidate.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett Hospitalized After Cardiac Episode
Naftali Bennett drops to 16%12%
Naftali Bennett was hospitalized for a catheterization procedure following a cardiac episode during a workout, temporarily complicating his political comeback efforts.
Israel objects to US announcement of Gaza peace oversight leaders
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 39%5%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting diplomatic friction and impacting Netanyahu's political standing amid ceasefire negotiations.
Gadi Eizenkot’s military reforms receive Knesset endorsement
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 20%16%
The Knesset’s approval of Eizenkot’s proposed defense reforms increased his credibility as a security‑focused leader, lifting his market price from near‑zero levels.
Naftali Bennett officially registers new party Bennett 2026
Naftali Bennett rises to 38%2%
Naftali Bennett registered his new political party Bennett 2026 in April 2025, signaling his return to politics and positioning himself as a key challenger to Netanyahu, which initially boosted his market support before it declined.
Itamar Ben-Gvir visits flashpoint Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, drawing condemnation
Ben-Gvir's visit to the sensitive Al-Aqsa Mosque compound sparked condemnation from Jordan and Palestinians, highlighting his controversial role and affecting his political image negatively.
Netanyahu Formally Urges Supreme Court to Reject Petitions Seeking Removal of Ben-Gvir
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu submitted a formal legal response to the Supreme Court, arguing that the judiciary lacks the authority to intervene in ministerial appointments.
Naftali Bennett unveils former government CEOs as first candidates for Bennett 2026
Bennett announced key candidates joining his party's list, signaling organizational strength and readiness for the upcoming elections, which helped stabilize his market position.
Netanyahu files legal response to Supreme Court petitions seeking removal of Itamar Ben-Gvir
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally opposed Supreme Court petitions aiming to remove National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, framing the issue as a political matter beyond judicial authority. This legal dispute highlighted internal government tensions and affected Ben-Gvir's political standing and market odds.
Netanyahu appoints Roman Gofman as new Mossad chief
The appointment of a new Mossad chief by Netanyahu signaled continuity in security policy, maintaining his standing among voters concerned with national security.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire deal's second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 42%1%
US envoys meeting with Netanyahu to push for the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire underscored international pressure on his government, impacting political dynamics and market perceptions of his leadership.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 44%6%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to tackle escalating settler violence highlighted ongoing security challenges and political pressures, contributing to market uncertainty about his leadership prospects.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms candidacy for Israel's 2026 elections
Benjamin Netanyahu officially confirmed he will run for another term as Prime Minister in the 2026 legislative elections, ending speculation about his retirement and boosting market confidence in his candidacy.
Lebanon and Israel begin direct talks amid regional conflict
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 43%1%
Direct talks between Lebanon and Israel commenced, aiming to address ceasefire and peace issues. Netanyahu's government framed these talks as efforts to disarm Hezbollah, impacting perceptions of his leadership on security matters.
Israel reacts with unease to US-Iran ceasefire agreement
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 5%3%
Avigdor Lieberman criticized the ceasefire with Iran, warning it allows Iran to regroup, which positioned him as a hard-line alternative and slightly increased his market odds.
Pew Research Center reports declining US confidence in Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 36%4%
A survey showed that 59% of Americans had little or no confidence in Netanyahu regarding world affairs, up from 52% the previous year, reflecting declining international support and influencing market sentiment about his re-election chances.
Gadi Eizenkot’s poll share spikes after surprise military endorsement
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 12%8%
A senior IDF officer publicly praised Eizenkot’s strategic vision, giving him a brief surge in market price despite his overall low support.
Naftali Bennett registers new party Bennett 2026
Naftali Bennett rises to 40%4%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett officially registered a new political party named Bennett 2026, signaling his intention to contest the upcoming election and aiming to return to leadership. This event increased his visibility and market support as a contender for prime minister.
Bennett, Eizenkot beat Netanyahu in suitability poll
Naftali Bennett jumps to 46%8%
A Lazar‑Panel4All poll published at the end of March showed Bennett and Eizenkot surpassing Netanyahu on the “suitability for prime minister” question, causing Bennett’s price to jump from 38 % to 46 % and Eizenkot’s from 13 % to 21 % while Netanyahu’s slipped.
Israeli Knesset passes draconian death penalty law driven by Itamar Ben-Gvir
The Knesset passed a law making the death penalty a default sentence for Palestinians convicted in military courts, a move driven by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, drawing international condemnation and impacting his political profile.
Itamar Ben-Gvir’s party Otzma Yehudit supports death penalty law for Palestinians
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Ben-Gvir’s far-right party pushed legislation for the death penalty for Palestinians convicted in military courts, but his market support dropped to zero, reflecting limited broader appeal.
Minister backs Netanyahu pardon in position paper submitted to president
Heritage Minister Amichay Eliyahu, acting for Justice Minister Yariv Levin, submitted a position paper supporting Prime Minister Netanyahu's pardon request, reflecting political support amid Netanyahu's legal challenges.
Netanyahu declares intention to run in elections amid criticism over wartime leadership
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%3%
Despite mounting criticism over his handling of the multi-front war and corruption charges, Netanyahu reaffirmed his candidacy, which temporarily boosted his market support.
Netanyahu faces criticism over retouched official photos of his wife
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 49%12%
The revelation of heavily retouched official photos of Sara Netanyahu sparked ethics and trust concerns, slightly undermining Netanyahu's public image and causing a dip in his market probability.
Benjamin Netanyahu asserts no Palestinian state west of Jordan River amid Iran conflict
Netanyahu's firm stance against a Palestinian state and his handling of the Iran conflict reinforced his hawkish image but also contributed to political polarization and affected market confidence in his leadership.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing rift with Trump
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 47%8%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field led to a public disagreement between Netanyahu and Trump, raising questions about their coordination and impacting Netanyahu's market support.
Itamar Ben-Gvir publicly advocates for death penalty expansion for terrorists
Itamar Ben Gvir rises to 1%1%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir filmed a video threatening the death penalty for terrorists, drawing international criticism but maintaining a marginal political profile in the election market.
Netanyahu faces criticism over retouched images of his wife
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 44%16%
The revelation of heavily retouched official images of Netanyahu's wife sparked an ethics debate, potentially undermining public trust and contributing to a decline in his market probability.
Itamar Ben-Gvir rejoins Netanyahu’s government amid Gaza strikes
Itamar Ben-Gvir rejoined Netanyahu’s coalition government, strengthening the far-right bloc and impacting market odds by consolidating Netanyahu’s support base.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts controversial video taunting Gaza flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video showing detained Gaza flotilla activists being taunted, leading to diplomatic backlash including travel bans from France and Poland, which further diminished his market support as a viable prime minister candidate.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 42%2%
The meeting highlighted growing security concerns and criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of settler attacks, further eroding his support among moderate voters.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 46%15%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated regional tensions and raised questions about Netanyahu's coordination with the U.S., affecting market confidence in his political stability.
Trump warns Iran of further strikes during Netanyahu visit to Florida
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 61%6%
During Netanyahu's visit, Trump issued strong warnings to Iran about its nuclear program and Hamas about disarmament, reinforcing Netanyahu's security credentials and U.S. support, which boosted his market probability.
Spike in Israeli settler violence discussed in Netanyahu-led cabinet meeting
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 43%18%
Netanyahu convened a cabinet meeting to address rising settler violence in the West Bank, a contentious issue affecting security and political stability, which contributed to a drop in his market support due to increased tensions.
Knesset advances 2026 state budget, reducing immediate threat of snap election
Naftali Bennett drops to 27%11%
The advancement of the state budget decreased the likelihood of early elections, causing a drop in market odds for candidates favoring snap elections, including Naftali Bennett.
Knesset advances and approves 2026 state budget, reducing likelihood of snap elections
Naftali Bennett plunges to 19%16%
The approval of the state budget diminished the chances of early elections, negatively impacting Naftali Bennett's immediate prospects of becoming prime minister and causing a drop in his market price.
Netanyahu faces sharp market drop amid trial and regional tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 45%16%
Netanyahu's market probability dropped sharply due to ongoing corruption trial pressures and heightened regional tensions, including Iran-related security concerns, reflecting increased political risk.
Justice Ministry Department Advises Against Pardon for Prime Minister Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 49%12%
The Pardons Department of the Justice Ministry determined that Netanyahu's request for a presidential pardon did not meet the necessary requirements, dealing a blow to his efforts to resolve his legal troubles.
Israel launches major air campaign against Iran with US support
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 61%8%
Prime Minister Netanyahu led a significant military offensive against Iran, impacting his political standing and public perception ahead of the elections.
False rumors of Netanyahu's death debunked by official sources
Rumors about Netanyahu's death circulated widely but were refuted by official government statements and evidence of his public appearances, stabilizing market confidence in his leadership.
Israel and US conduct joint strikes on Iran, escalating regional tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 60%5%
The joint strikes on Iran by Israel and the US heightened regional tensions and influenced political dynamics in Israel, impacting Netanyahu's standing and the election market.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party overtaking Bennett's as main anti-Netanyahu challenger
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 16%8%
A poll indicated that Eizenkot's party gained significant support, surpassing Bennett's, which increased his market probability as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu.
Gadi Eisenkot visits Kibbutz Yiftah, boosting political profile
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 10%5%
Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot's public appearances increased his visibility and support, contributing to his rise in polls and market prices as a leading opposition figure.
Naftali Bennett gains momentum after coalition talks with centrist parties
Naftali Bennett jumps to 39%8%
Bennett’s reported progress in forming a centrist coalition raised expectations of his return to power, pushing his price upward.
Hendel calls for government without Haredi and Arab parties
Yoaz Hendel rises to 1%1%
Hendel publicly demanded a government excluding Haredi and Arab parties, attracting media attention and nudging his market price from 0 % to 1 % as the Reservists party entered the public debate.
Benny Gantz visits Washington amid speculation of US support
Benny Gantz rises to 2%1%
Benny Gantz's trip to Washington was seen as a sign of US backing, raising his profile as a centrist challenger to Netanyahu, impacting market perceptions of his chances.
Attorney General urges High Court to force Netanyahu to fire Ben-Gvir
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Israel's Attorney General urged the High Court to compel Prime Minister Netanyahu to dismiss National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir due to alleged interference in police independence, highlighting internal government tensions and impacting Ben-Gvir's political viability.
Benny Gantz visits US to seek ceasefire deal, causing political tension
Benny Gantz dips to 0%3%
Benny Gantz's unauthorized trip to the US to discuss a ceasefire deal with Hamas and humanitarian aid led to tensions with Netanyahu and affected his political standing, contributing to his market probability decline.
Attorney General reports failure to stop Ben Gvir from undermining police independence
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
The Attorney General stated that efforts to prevent Ben Gvir from interfering in police work have failed, highlighting ongoing legal and political controversies affecting his reputation.
Netanyahu’s poll support plunges after Israel‑Iran war escalation
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 40%21%
Following a series of Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and rising war fatigue, public opinion shifted away from Netanyahu, causing a sharp price decline.
Trump warns Iran of further US strikes during Netanyahu visit to Florida
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 62%7%
Trump's public warning alongside Netanyahu about potential US military action against Iran reinforced Netanyahu's hardline stance on Iran, boosting his perceived leadership on security issues.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 64%6%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated regional tensions, with Netanyahu asserting Israel acted alone, affecting his market support amid international scrutiny.
Netanyahu-Trump meeting in Florida focuses on Iran and Gaza ceasefire
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 62%7%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with former U.S. President Trump, including discussions on Iran's nuclear program and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforced his international diplomatic stature, temporarily boosting market confidence.
Trump warns Iran on nuclear program during Netanyahu visit to Florida
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 63%8%
During Netanyahu's visit, Trump issued strong warnings to Iran about rebuilding its nuclear program, reinforcing U.S.-Israel cooperation and Netanyahu's security credentials, which temporarily boosted his market position.
Likud poll shows party slipping to 24 seats, hurting Netanyahu’s odds
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 55%10%
An internal Likud poll released on 1 March showed Netanyahu’s Likud slipping to 24 seats, causing his market price to dip from a recent high of 65 % to the mid‑50s.
Netanyahu meets Trump, who warns Iran on nuclear program
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 65%9%
During Netanyahu's visit to Florida, President Trump warned Iran against rebuilding its nuclear program and reiterated support for Netanyahu, bolstering Netanyahu's political position amid regional security concerns.
Israel and US launch major air campaign against Iran under Netanyahu's leadership
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 63%4%
Netanyahu led a major air campaign against Iran alongside the US, escalating regional conflict. This military action influenced public perception of Netanyahu's leadership and affected his political standing in the polls.
US and Israel launch joint strikes on Iranian military installations
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 46%7%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted joint military strikes against Iranian targets, escalating regional tensions and impacting Netanyahu's standing due to the ongoing conflict and its management.
Israel and United States Launch Joint Preemptive Military Strikes Against Iran
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 57%3%
Israel and the United States launched a joint preemptive military operation against Iran, leading to retaliatory missile strikes and a major escalation in the region. This military action temporarily bolstered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's standing as a wartime leader.
Yoaz Hendel's Reservists Party launches with political ambitions
Yoaz Hendel jumps to 6%5%
Yoaz Hendel announced the creation of the Reservists Party, aiming to influence the upcoming elections. Although his party failed to cross the electoral threshold, his political activity was noted in the market with a minor price presence.
Channel 13 poll shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 17%12%
This poll marked the first time Eisenkot's party outpolled Likud, boosting his market price significantly and signaling a competitive race for prime ministership.
Ayelet Shaked calls for alliance between Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 4%2%
Former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked urged Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman to join forces to strengthen the opposition against Netanyahu, highlighting shifting dynamics in the political landscape and affecting Lieberman's market prospects.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 60%5%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including demilitarization and reconstruction, impacting his political standing and market odds.
Yair Golan condemns Israeli military actions in Gaza
Yair Golan plunges to 0%47%
Yair Golan publicly criticized Israeli military actions in Gaza in a radio interview, causing controversy and impacting his political standing and market perception as a left-wing candidate.
Gideon Sa’ar represents Israel at UN Security Council meeting
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar spoke at the UN Security Council on Middle East issues, raising his profile as a key political figure ahead of the elections, though his market odds remained low.
Naftali Bennett rules out serving in Netanyahu-led government
Naftali Bennett drops to 28%7%
Bennett publicly stated he would not join a government led by Netanyahu after the election, signaling a firm opposition stance and affecting coalition possibilities, which influenced market perceptions of his chances.
Naftali Bennett states he will not join future Netanyahu government
Naftali Bennett drops to 38%11%
Bennett publicly declared he would not join any government led by Netanyahu after the election, reinforcing his opposition stance and affecting market odds.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to discuss escalating settler violence highlighted ongoing security challenges and political pressures, influencing market perceptions of his leadership effectiveness.
Benjamin Netanyahu undergoes hospital treatment amid health concerns
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%1%
Netanyahu was admitted for dental treatment, sparking media speculation about his health and affecting market perceptions of his political stability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 61%6%
The landmark energy deal was presented as a major economic win for Israel, briefly boosting Netanyahu’s perceived competence and raising his price.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 53%2%
Amid escalating settler violence and Palestinian casualties, Netanyahu's government faced criticism and pressure to act, impacting perceptions of his leadership and security policies.
Benjamin Netanyahu publicly criticized by Gadi Eisenkot over Iran nuclear threat claims
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%4%
Gadi Eisenkot accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of fabricating the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb to manipulate public opinion, undermining Netanyahu's credibility and causing a decline in his market support.
Gideon Sa'ar to represent Israel at Donald Trump Board of Peace summit
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar represented Israel at the US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace summit, highlighting his active role in foreign affairs and raising his political profile ahead of the elections.
Netanyahu to meet Trump as Israel pushes for Iran war
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%1%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump to discuss Iran war strategy reinforced his leadership image amid regional tensions, impacting market confidence positively.
High Court orders Justice Minister Yariv Levin to justify refusal to convene Judicial Selection Committee
Yariv Levin rises to 4%2%
The High Court pressured Justice Minister Yariv Levin over his refusal to convene the Judicial Selection Committee, highlighting tensions over judicial appointments and reforms, impacting Levin's political standing.
Trump Criticizes Israeli President Herzog Over Delay in Netanyahu Pardon
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 59%6%
Donald Trump publicly attacked Israeli President Isaac Herzog for not granting a pardon to Benjamin Netanyahu, adding pressure to the ongoing legal and political drama surrounding the Prime Minister.
Netanyahu claims he saved Israel from destruction as Iran obtained atomic bomb
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 56%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly claimed he saved Israel from destruction amid Iran's nuclear threat, reinforcing his security credentials but also drawing criticism from rivals, affecting his market position.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 56%3%
The historic gas export deal strengthened Israel's regional energy position and was seen as a diplomatic success for Netanyahu, positively influencing his market standing.
Israel and US launch major air campaign against Iran
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 55%10%
Prime Minister Netanyahu led a major air campaign against Iran alongside the US, escalating regional conflict and impacting his political standing amid ongoing wars and security challenges.
Avigdor Lieberman calls for referendum on constitution in next government
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 5%3%
Avigdor Lieberman emphasized constitutional reform as a key campaign issue, aiming to increase his party’s influence, but his market price remained low at 5%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 61%9%
The landmark energy agreement bolstered Israel’s economic outlook and showcased Netanyahu’s ability to secure major deals, temporarily lifting his market price.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%3%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, enhancing Israel's regional energy influence and economic stability, which positively affected his market prospects.
Israel and US launch major air campaign against Iran
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%3%
Netanyahu led a joint military offensive with the US against Iran aiming for regime change, reinforcing his image as a strong leader and affecting market odds in his favor.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms re-election bid amid political challenges
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 55%5%
Netanyahu announced his intention to run for re-election despite facing legal trials and political opposition, stabilizing his market support but not reversing its decline.
Benjamin Netanyahu launches major air campaign against Iran
Netanyahu's leadership in the 2026 Iran war and his security stance reinforced his image as a strong leader, supporting his market position despite political controversies.
Benjamin Netanyahu releases document blaming rivals for October 7 failures
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%3%
Netanyahu released a document during an investigation blaming his political rivals for failures related to the October 7 attacks, attempting to shift blame and improve his political standing. This event caused some volatility in his market price but did not reverse his overall decline.
Netanyahu releases document defending his record on October 7 attacks
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 55%5%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a document responding to the State Comptroller's investigation into the October 7 attacks, blaming political rivals and presenting himself positively. This move was significant in shaping public perception ahead of the election.
Prime Minister Netanyahu releases document defending his record amid investigation
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 55%5%
Netanyahu's release of a document during a State Comptroller investigation aimed to shift blame to rivals and bolster his image, affecting market confidence in his re-election prospects.
Benjamin Netanyahu releases document defending his record amid investigation
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu released a document during a State Comptroller investigation, attempting to shift blame to political rivals and bolster his image, which influenced market perceptions of his political resilience and election prospects.
Supreme Court Orders Netanyahu to Explain Why Ben-Gvir Has Not Been Dismissed
The Israeli Supreme Court issued an order requiring Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to clarify why he has not fired National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over allegations of politicizing the police force.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to discuss escalating settler violence underscored ongoing security challenges and the far-right influence in his government, affecting market confidence in his leadership.
Netanyahu launches major air campaign against Iran with US
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 56%3%
Netanyahu initiated a significant military campaign against Iran, impacting his political image and market perceptions of his leadership during wartime.
Knesset Approves 2026 Budget in Principle, Avoiding Early Election Trap
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 51%4%
The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget in its initial reading, temporarily stabilizing Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition and delaying immediate early elections.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage from Gaza, paving way for ceasefire phase two
The recovery of the last hostage's remains from Gaza marked the completion of the first phase of the US-brokered ceasefire deal, enabling progress to the next phase. This development was significant for national healing and influenced political discourse ahead of the election.
Naftali Bennett unveils plan to reform Israel if reelected Prime Minister
Naftali Bennett rises to 38%1%
Bennett presented a comprehensive reform plan focusing on security and constitutional changes, boosting his profile as a serious contender against Netanyahu in the upcoming election.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on West Bank settler violence
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 51%5%
A cabinet meeting focused on escalating settler attacks highlighted security concerns and Netanyahu’s reliance on right‑wing coalition partners, dampening his appeal among moderate voters and pulling his price down.
Gadi Eizenkot proposes merger with Lapid and Bennett for mega-slate ahead of election
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 14%13%
Reports emerged that Gadi Eizenkot proposed a political merger with Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett to form a large electoral slate, boosting Eizenkot's market probability significantly as this alliance could challenge Netanyahu's dominance.
Otzma Yehudit party leaves government over Gaza ceasefire agreement
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
The departure of Ben-Gvir's party from the government over ceasefire disagreements weakened Netanyahu's coalition, negatively impacting Ben-Gvir's market odds and raising uncertainty about Netanyahu's hold on power.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%3%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank underscored ongoing security challenges, influencing market perceptions of his leadership effectiveness.
Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot attend march for conscripting ultra-Orthodox Jews
Bennett and Eisenkot jointly participated in a march advocating for universal conscription, signaling their shared policy priorities and cooperation, which influenced market perceptions of their political viability.
Netanyahu faces ongoing corruption trial amid political pressure
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%4%
Netanyahu's corruption trial continued, with requests to postpone testimony for security reasons rejected, increasing political uncertainty and impacting his market support.
Naftali Bennett announces run for prime minister and new party registration
Naftali Bennett jumps to 57%8%
Naftali Bennett announced his intention to run for prime minister and registered a new party 'Bennett 2026' in early 2026, signaling his political comeback and boosting his market probability significantly.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new party Yashar to unite centrist voters
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 10%8%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot launched the Yashar party aiming to create a broad centrist alternative prioritizing security and national interests, attracting notable figures and signaling a challenge to Netanyahu's dominance. This boosted Eizenkot's market price significantly.
Israeli Supreme Court Orders Netanyahu to Justify Keeping Ben-Gvir in Cabinet
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%3%
The High Court of Justice ordered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to explain why he has not dismissed National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over alleged interference in police operations, escalating a constitutional showdown.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%3%
Netanyahu held a security meeting to address escalating Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, highlighting domestic security challenges. This event underscored his leadership in managing internal conflicts, impacting his political standing.
Avigdor Lieberman’s party support collapses to near zero
Avigdor Lieberman plunges to 1%48%
Avigdor Lieberman's market probability dropped sharply to around 1% by mid-January 2026, reflecting his party's poor polling and diminished political influence after previous resignations and controversies.
Report: Trump and Netanyahu agree on two-month deadline for Hamas to disarm
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
The agreement between Trump and Netanyahu on a deadline for Hamas disarmament highlighted Netanyahu's strong security stance, temporarily boosting his market support.
Polls and analysts predict early Israeli elections likely before October 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
Political commentators and officials indicated that early elections could be held as soon as June 2026 due to coalition instability and security challenges, reinforcing Netanyahu's position as the leading candidate despite ongoing criticism.
President Herzog delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 40%13%
Herzog’s postponement of Netanyahu’s request to pause his trial heightened uncertainty about Netanyahu’s political future, contributing to a price drop.
Iran crisis seen as key challenge for Netanyahu ahead of elections
Analysts noted that the crisis in Iran would be critical for Netanyahu's legacy and electoral prospects, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate. This analysis supported the market's sustained confidence in Netanyahu.
Ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest against military draft
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%1%
The death of a teenage boy during protests against drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military heightened tensions in Israel, posing a political challenge for Netanyahu who relies on religious parties, impacting his market support.
Naftali Bennett's political comeback gains momentum with new party registration
Naftali Bennett rises to 37%3%
Naftali Bennett registered a new political party 'Bennett 2026' signaling his return to politics and challenging Netanyahu's leadership, which boosted his market odds early in 2026.
Benny Gantz signals willingness to join Netanyahu-led unity government if needed
Opposition leader Benny Gantz stated he would join a unity government with Netanyahu if the opposition fails to form a majority, affecting his market odds and political positioning.
Benny Gantz launches campaign vowing not to rely on Arab parties
Benny Gantz dips to 0%1%
Centrist leader Benny Gantz initiated a campaign pledging to form a government without relying on Arab parties, aiming to attract moderate voters and counter Netanyahu's coalition. Despite low polling, this campaign marked his final political efforts before his decline.
Benny Gantz launches campaign excluding Arab parties and far-right Ben-Gvir
Benny Gantz plunges to 1%48%
Benny Gantz initiated a campaign pledging not to rely on Arab parties or far-right figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir, aiming to unify centrist voters. This stance, however, did not significantly improve his market position, which remained low.
Yoaz Hendel announces formation of The Reservists party
Yoaz Hendel founded The Reservists party in January 2026, entering the political arena and registering to run in the upcoming elections, which influenced his market presence though with low odds.
Avigdor Lieberman leads faction meeting amid draft law challenges
Avigdor Lieberman dips to 0%2%
Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Lieberman led a faction meeting addressing enforcement policies for ultra-Orthodox draft dodging, reflecting ongoing political tensions. This contributed to his market probability remaining near zero due to limited coalition prospects.
Itamar Ben-Gvir defends role at High Court hearing amid calls for dismissal
Ben-Gvir publicly defended his actions and criticized the Attorney General ahead of a High Court hearing on petitions to dismiss him, solidifying his position within the right-wing bloc but failing to regain market support, which remained near zero.
Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot leave Israeli war cabinet, calling for new elections
Benny Gantz plunges to 1%48%
On June 9, 2024, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot left the war cabinet, signaling political instability and increasing the likelihood of early elections, which affected their market odds negatively.
Haaretz poll keeps Likud ahead of opposition
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
A Haaretz poll on 8 Jan showed Likud still on top, confirming Netanyahu’s lead and keeping his market price near the 53 % endpoint.
Yariv Levin threatens to paralyze Supreme Court, advancing judicial overhaul
Yariv Levin dips to 1%1%
Justice Minister Yariv Levin escalated efforts to overhaul Israel's judiciary, threatening to paralyze the Supreme Court. This move increased political tensions and contributed to his diminished market prospects.
Justice Minister Yariv Levin threatens judicial overhaul and challenges Supreme Court
Levin's aggressive judicial reform campaign intensified political tensions, impacting Netanyahu's coalition stability and market perceptions of his re-election chances.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 54%2%
The death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws heightened tensions, challenging Netanyahu's coalition with religious parties and affecting his political standing.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar makes historic visit to Somaliland
Gideon Sa’ar's official visit to Somaliland following Israel's recognition of the region marked a significant diplomatic development, raising his profile and impacting his market standing.
Netanyahu asserts Israel and US will prevent Iran's nuclear and missile program revival
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 56%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated Israel's and the US's coordinated stance to prevent Iran from reviving its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, reinforcing his security credentials ahead of the election and supporting his market position.
Poll shows Netanyahu maintaining lead, Bennett weakening
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%1%
A Kan News poll showed Netanyahu's Likud party gaining seats while Naftali Bennett's party declined, reinforcing Netanyahu's position as the likely prime minister and Bennett's weakening chances.
Gideon Sa’ar highlights rising antisemitism and security challenges at Foreign Ministry memorial
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar addressed increased global antisemitism and security threats, reinforcing his role in government but not significantly shifting his market position, which remained near zero.
Netanyahu returns from Mar-a-Lago meeting with Trump amid election campaign
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 54%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu's fifth meeting with former US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago was seen as a strategic move to bolster his reelection campaign. The visit reinforced Netanyahu's international support and helped maintain his market lead.
Naftali Bennett forms new party 'Bennett 2026' to contest upcoming election
Naftali Bennett rises to 38%2%
Naftali Bennett registered a new political party named Bennett 2026, aiming to contest the 2026 election with a platform focused on security and constitutional reform, which affected his market odds positively.
Netanyahu Prepares for High-Stakes Mar-a-Lago Meeting with Donald Trump
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scheduled a crucial meeting with US President Donald Trump, viewed by analysts as the unofficial launch of his 2026 reelection campaign.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure over Gaza, conscription, and judicial overhaul ahead of elections
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 54%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu confronted significant political challenges related to security and judicial reforms, which heightened uncertainty about his re-election prospects and influenced market prices.
Netanyahu holds high-profile meetings with US officials including President Trump
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%8%
Prime Minister Netanyahu met with US President Trump and other officials to discuss Iran and regional security, boosting confidence in his leadership and positively impacting his market odds.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure with critical decisions ahead
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 54%4%
As the election year approached, Netanyahu confronted significant challenges including Gaza policy, conscription disputes, and judicial overhaul controversies. These pressures shaped market expectations, reinforcing Netanyahu's lead but highlighting vulnerabilities.
Netanyahu meets U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 56%5%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with Trump to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire efforts reinforced his international diplomatic stature, supporting his market position as the likely next Prime Minister.
Netanyahu meets Trump to push for expanded Iran talks
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%1%
Netanyahu met privately with Trump, insisting that negotiations with Iran continue and include limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This reinforced Netanyahu's image as a key regional leader, supporting his market position.
Donald Trump Claims Netanyahu Pardon Is 'On Its Way' During Mar-a-Lago Meeting
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%1%
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Israeli President Isaac Herzog indicated a pardon for Netanyahu was coming, though Herzog's office quickly disputed the claim.
Netanyahu prepares for US visit amid mounting political pressure
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 56%7%
Netanyahu's upcoming visit to US President Trump was seen as a strategic move to bolster his reelection campaign amid domestic challenges including judicial reform and coalition tensions, supporting his market position as frontrunner.
Amir Ohana elected as Israel's first openly gay Knesset Speaker
Amir Ohana drops to 1%5%
Amir Ohana was elected Speaker of the Knesset with broad support, marking a historic milestone as the first openly gay person in this role. His appointment highlighted his influence within the Likud party and Israeli politics, though it did not significantly affect prime ministerial market odds.
Benjamin Netanyahu sworn in as Prime Minister for sixth term
Following the 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu was officially sworn in as Prime Minister, reinforcing his position as Israel's longest-serving premier and impacting market perceptions of his political resilience.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran nuclear talks
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 56%8%
Netanyahu's private meeting with President Trump focused on U.S.-Iran negotiations, with Netanyahu pushing for inclusion of ballistic missile limits and militant group support in talks, reinforcing his image as a key regional security player.
Netanyahu visits Mar-a-Lago to bolster reelection bid
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 54%1%
Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Mar-a-Lago was seen as a strategic move to gain support from former US President Trump, aiming to reshape his reelection narrative and strengthen his campaign ahead of the 2026 elections. This helped maintain his market odds above 50%.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago to kick off 2026 reelection bid
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu's visit to Mar-a-Lago was seen as a strategic move to gain US support for his reelection campaign, boosting his market prospects by highlighting strong international backing.
New West Bank settlement inaugurated amid far‑right coalition support
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 54%3%
The opening of a new settlement, praised by Netanyahu and his right‑wing allies, reinforced his image as a champion of settlement expansion, temporarily lifting his market price.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new political party to challenge Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 2%1%
Eizenkot launched a new party aiming to unite centrist and moderate voters, briefly raising his market price from near zero to 2%, though it remained low compared to Netanyahu and Bennett.
Poll Shows Bloc Map and Coalition Strength Remain Stable Despite Turbulent Week
A new Maariv poll showed Netanyahu's coalition holding steady at 50 seats, while Benny Gantz's Blue and White and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism continued to fail to pass the electoral threshold.
Netanyahu Trial Witness Exposes Alleged Suppression of Exculpatory Evidence
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 52%2%
Testimony by a senior SIGINT investigator in the Jerusalem District Court suggested that police and prosecutors intentionally suppressed cell phone location data that favored Netanyahu's defense in Case 4000.
France bans Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering country
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
Following international outrage over Ben-Gvir's treatment of Gaza flotilla activists, France imposed a travel ban on him, severely damaging his political prospects and causing his market price to fall from 49% to near zero.
Naftali Bennett calls for investigation into Netanyahu over Qatargate scandal
Naftali Bennett rises to 35%2%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly demanded that Israeli security agencies investigate Netanyahu in connection with the Qatargate corruption scandal. This assertive stance boosted Bennett's profile as a challenger, increasing his market probability.
Bennett calls on security agencies to probe Netanyahu in Qatargate case
Naftali Bennett rises to 35%4%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly urged Israel's security services to investigate Netanyahu over alleged corruption in the Qatargate scandal. This move positioned Bennett as a strong opposition figure and boosted his market standing as a challenger.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
The scheduled high‑level meeting signaled close US‑Israel coordination on Iran, boosting Netanyahu’s standing among hawkish voters and causing a short‑term price rise.
Benny Gantz leaves Israeli emergency government war cabinet
Benny Gantz dips to 1%3%
Benny Gantz announced his departure from the national unity war cabinet, citing lack of a post-war Gaza plan. His exit weakened his political standing and coalition influence, reflected in his market probability dropping to 1%.
Justice Minister Yariv Levin faces High Court pressure over judicial appointments
The High Court ordered Levin to justify his refusal to convene the Judicial Selection Committee, highlighting tensions over judicial reforms and affecting his political standing.
Benjamin Netanyahu's health rumors spark market volatility
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 42%11%
Rumors and media speculation about Netanyahu's health, including hospital visits and false death claims, caused fluctuations in his market price, reflecting uncertainty about his ability to lead.
Benjamin Netanyahu's health concerns spark market uncertainty
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 42%7%
Reports emerged about Netanyahu undergoing hospital treatment and health scares, including prostate cancer treatment and dental procedures, raising questions about his political future and causing fluctuations in his market price.
Poll Shows Likud Slipping to 25 Seats as Opposition Nears Majority
Naftali Bennett dips to 34%2%
A Maariv poll showed Likud dropping two seats to 25 following a controversial legislative blitz, while Naftali Bennett's prospective party surged to 22 seats, putting the opposition on the brink of forming a government.
Former PM Naftali Bennett's Personal Mobile Phone Hacked by 'Hanzala' Group
Naftali Bennett jumps to 36%5%
A cyber operation targeting Naftali Bennett's personal phone exposed sensitive political notes, internal disputes, and contact lists of senior Israeli officials, raising cybersecurity concerns.
Hacking Group Hanzala Breaches Former PM Naftali Bennett's Mobile Phone
Naftali Bennett dips to 35%1%
The cyber group Hanzala claimed responsibility for hacking Naftali Bennett's personal iPhone, leaking sensitive political notes and contact details of senior Israeli officials.
Naftali Bennett's phone hacked by cyber group exposing sensitive data
Naftali Bennett drops to 36%13%
A cyberattack by the Hanzala group compromised Naftali Bennett's mobile phone, leaking personal and official data including contacts of senior Israeli officials. This incident raised concerns about Israel's cybersecurity and potentially weakened Bennett's political standing, contributing to a decline in his market price.
Naftali Bennett’s mobile phone hacked by 'Hanzala' group, exposing sensitive data
Naftali Bennett drops to 28%8%
A cyberattack on Naftali Bennett’s phone by the Hanzala hacking group exposed personal and official data, raising security concerns and potentially impacting his political standing and market support.
Yoaz Hendel launches The Reservists Party for 2026 election
Yoaz Hendel founded The Reservists Party in August 2025 and officially registered it in September, launching a campaign in early April 2026 targeting Haredi and Arab parties. This new party's emergence introduced a new player in the election, though its market price remained low.
Israeli president delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 46%7%
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his corruption trial, signaling continued legal pressure. The uncertainty lowered market confidence in Netanyahu, leading to a price drop.
Iran-Linked Spy Suspect Arrested for Surveilling Naftali Bennett's Home
Israeli security forces arrested Vadim Kupriyanov for allegedly spying on behalf of Iran, which included conducting surveillance on the home of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new party 'Yashar!'
Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 2%47%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot launched a new political party aiming to offer a unifying alternative, initially causing a sharp drop in his market odds due to uncertainty about the party's prospects.
Gilad Erdan participates in Magen David Adom Hanukkah Gala
Gilad Erdan, former Likud minister and UN ambassador, maintained a public profile through events like the MDA Hanukkah Gala, but his political prospects remained low, reflected in his market price near zero.
Polls show Netanyahu leading with growing support ahead of 2026 election
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 59%10%
Polls released indicated Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party gaining momentum and leading in seats, reinforcing his position as the frontrunner for prime minister. This polling data caused Netanyahu's market probability to peak at 59%.
Likud Rises to 28 Seats in Poll as Religious Zionist Party Falls Below Threshold
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 59%10%
A new Maariv poll showed Likud rising to 28 seats, matching its pre-war support levels, while Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party fell below the electoral threshold, slightly weakening the coalition's overall seat projection.
Naftali Bennett registers new party 'Bennett 2026' signaling political comeback
Naftali Bennett rises to 41%4%
Naftali Bennett registered a new political party, Bennett 2026, indicating his intention to return to politics and challenge Netanyahu. Early polls showed strong support for his party, impacting market prices.
Benjamin Netanyahu begins 2026 election campaign amid legal and political challenges
Netanyahu officially started his campaign for the 2026 elections while facing ongoing corruption trials and political opposition, initially maintaining his market odds around 49%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened Israel's regional energy position and was seen as a diplomatic and economic success, boosting his market standing.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 49%4%
Following the death of an ultra-Orthodox teen during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence, highlighting internal social tensions affecting his political environment.
Netanyahu submits formal pardon request amid legal challenges
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 48%1%
Netanyahu's legal troubles added uncertainty to his political future, contributing to volatility and a decline in his market price as investors factored in potential risks to his premiership.
Gadi Eisenkot warns against ultra-Orthodox draft bill at Knesset
Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 1%48%
Gadi Eisenkot publicly criticized the proposed ultra-Orthodox draft bill as dangerous for Israel and ineffective for the IDF, impacting his market perception as a potential prime ministerial candidate.
Gadi Eisenkot's son killed in Gaza conflict, boosting Eisenkot's public sympathy
The death of Eisenkot's son in Gaza in late 2023 resonated with the public and enhanced Eisenkot's image as a bereaved father and security-focused leader, positively impacting his market standing.
Benjamin Netanyahu releases document defending his record on October 7 attacks
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%4%
On February 6, 2026, Prime Minister Netanyahu released a document responding to the State Comptroller's investigation into the October 7 attacks, blaming political rivals and portraying himself positively. This move affected market confidence in Netanyahu's leadership ahead of the election.
Israeli cabinet approves 2026 state budget with increased defense spending
The Israeli cabinet approved a 2026 budget including a significant increase in defense spending to $35 billion, reflecting ongoing security concerns amid regional conflicts. This budget approval was crucial to avoid early elections and maintain government stability, impacting political dynamics ahead of the 2026 election.
Poll shows opposition bloc including Bennett and Eizenkot leading over Netanyahu coalition
Naftali Bennett rises to 38%3%
A Channel 12 poll indicated the opposition bloc, including Bennett and Eizenkot, leading with 69 seats versus Netanyahu's coalition at 51, supporting Bennett's and Eizenkot's market prices and challenging Netanyahu's dominance.
Netanyahu credits Trump for role in ending Gaza conflict
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 52%3%
Netanyahu publicly acknowledged former US President Trump's role in ending the Gaza conflict, aiming to bolster his image and political support ahead of the election.
Zman Israel poll puts Bennett’s bloc at 58 % of seats
Naftali Bennett plunges to 33%16%
A Zman Israel poll showed Bennett’s bloc at 58 % of seats, raising his personal suitability rating and stabilising his market price around the low‑30 % range.
Israeli cabinet debates and approves 2026 state budget amid coalition tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
The cabinet began debating the 2026 budget, a critical step to avoid early elections, with Netanyahu expressing confidence in its passage, which helped stabilize his market position amid coalition strains.
Channel 14 poll puts Netanyahu at 66 % suitability
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 57%8%
A Channel 14 suitability poll showed Netanyahu at 66 % support, pushing his market price upward to a peak of 57 % later in December.
Netanyahu appoints new Mossad director, emphasizing security leadership
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%6%
Prime Minister Netanyahu appointed Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman as the next Mossad director, highlighting his leadership and intelligence credentials. This move reinforced Netanyahu's image as a strong security leader ahead of the elections, supporting his market position.
Israeli cabinet debates 2026 budget amid risk of early elections
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
The cabinet began debating the 2026 state budget, with failure to approve by March 2026 potentially triggering early elections. This uncertainty influenced market sentiment, reinforcing Netanyahu's position as the likely frontrunner.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially boosting his political standing ahead of the election. This significant economic agreement likely supported his market probability.
Naftali Bennett holds election event targeting women voters in Tel Aviv
Bennett's campaign efforts included outreach to women voters, highlighting his active return to the political scene and aiming to broaden his support base ahead of the 2026 elections.
Naftali Bennett unveils flagship law to support IDF servicemembers and oppose draft exemptions
Naftali Bennett jumps to 38%5%
Bennett announced a major legislative proposal to incentivize military service and oppose draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, boosting his political profile and market price from 33% to near 38%.
Naftali Bennett registers new party 'Bennett 2026' aiming for premiership
Naftali Bennett drops to 38%11%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett officially registered his new party 'Bennett 2026' in December 2025, signaling his intention to contest the 2026 election and return to lead Israel, which initially boosted his market support.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest over draft law
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 49%1%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during protests against drafting ultra‑Orthodox Jews; Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted the fragile coalition with religious parties, prompting a dip in his price.
Gadi Eizenkot launches new party 'Yashar' aiming to unite centrist voters
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 10%9%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot formed the Yashar party to offer a unifying alternative prioritizing security and national interests, boosting his market probability significantly as a potential Prime Minister candidate.
Bennett and Lapid unite to form a joint list ahead of 2026 elections
Naftali Bennett jumps to 40%7%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a political alliance to strengthen the center-left opposition against Netanyahu. This merger aimed to consolidate votes and improve their chances in the upcoming election, boosting Bennett's market probability from 33% to 40%.
Supreme Court President Isaac Amit Rebukes Justice Minister Yariv Levin
Yariv Levin rises to 3%2%
Supreme Court President Isaac Amit publicly criticized Justice Minister Yariv Levin for refusing to meet with him, accusing him of boycotting the judiciary.
Benjamin Netanyahu requests presidential pardon amid investigations
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 33%11%
Netanyahu formally asked for a pardon from President Isaac Herzog amid ongoing legal investigations, which negatively affected his political standing and market confidence in his re-election chances.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new centrist party Yashar!
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 49%48%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot launched Yashar! as a centrist-security alternative, significantly increasing his political profile and market odds as a potential Prime Minister candidate.
Yoaz Hendel announces new political party The Reservists
Yoaz Hendel rises to 1%1%
Yoaz Hendel announced the creation of a new political party, The Reservists, dissolving his previous faction Derekh Eretz, aiming to influence the upcoming election and increasing his market visibility.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%5%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a private meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, emphasizing joint pressure on Iran. The high‑profile diplomatic engagement boosted confidence in Netanyahu’s leadership, contributing to a price rise for his outcome.
Benjamin Netanyahu requests pardon from President Herzog
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 56%7%
Netanyahu formally asked for a pardon amid legal challenges, which affected his political standing and market confidence in his premiership prospects.
Netanyahu requests presidential pardon in corruption trial
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu formally asked the Israeli president for a pardon in his long-running corruption trial, aiming to strengthen his ability to govern and influence public opinion ahead of the 2026 election, which affected his market price positively.
Benjamin Netanyahu formally requests presidential pardon amid corruption trial
Netanyahu's request for a pardon amid ongoing corruption trials raised questions about his political future and affected market confidence in his chances of remaining Prime Minister.
Benjamin Netanyahu submits formal pardon request amid corruption allegations
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 52%3%
Netanyahu's formal pardon request amid corruption charges sparked political debate and affected his public image, influencing market perceptions of his electability.
Netanyahu formally requests pardon from President Herzog amid legal investigations
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
Netanyahu's legal troubles became public with his formal pardon request, raising questions about his political future and causing fluctuations in his market support.
Netanyahu Submits Formal Request for Pre-Verdict Presidential Pardon
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally requested a presidential pardon from President Isaac Herzog in his ongoing corruption trial, seeking an end to the proceedings without admitting guilt.
Benjamin Netanyahu requests presidential pardon amid ongoing trial
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 46%3%
Netanyahu submitted an official request to President Isaac Herzog for a pardon to halt his criminal trial, citing national unity. This extraordinary move highlighted his political vulnerability and contributed to a decline in his market support.
Benjamin Netanyahu Submits Formal Request for Presidential Pardon in Corruption Trial
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially requested a preemptive pardon from President Isaac Herzog, arguing that the trial was tearing the nation apart and that ending it was in the public interest.
Gadi Eizenkot Strongly Opposes Netanyahu's Preemptive Pardon Request
Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 1%48%
Former military chief Gadi Eizenkot publicly criticized Netanyahu's pardon request, stating that Israel is a nation governed by the rule of law and there cannot be a separate legal system for the Prime Minister.
Jonathan Pollard criticizes Netanyahu, calls for political overhaul
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 42%7%
Former Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard publicly criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and called for a complete replacement of the current political leadership, signaling public dissatisfaction and potentially impacting Netanyahu's market probability.
Justice Minister Yariv Levin appointed to head multiple ministries after Orthodox parties quit coalition
Yariv Levin plunges to 2%47%
Following the withdrawal of Orthodox parties from the coalition, Yariv Levin was appointed to lead labor, religious services, and Jerusalem ministries, increasing his political profile but also highlighting coalition instability, which affected his market support.
Cabinet appoints Yariv Levin to head labor, religious services and Jerusalem ministries
Yariv Levin plunges to 1%48%
Yariv Levin was appointed to lead multiple ministries after ultra-Orthodox parties left the coalition, increasing his political profile but not significantly affecting his chances as Prime Minister.
Orthodox parties quit coalition, Yariv Levin assumes multiple ministries
Yariv Levin rises to 4%3%
Following the departure of Orthodox parties from the coalition, Justice Minister Yariv Levin took on additional ministerial roles, signaling political instability that affected perceptions of Netanyahu's government strength.
Yariv Levin assumes multiple ministerial roles after Orthodox parties quit coalition
Yariv Levin plunges to 1%48%
Justice Minister Yariv Levin took on additional government ministries, increasing his political profile ahead of the elections, though his market odds remained low.
Netanyahu announces meeting with Trump to discuss Iran talks
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 51%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss American negotiations with Iran, emphasizing the need to include ballistic missile limitations and ending support for militant groups. This heightened Netanyahu's perceived leadership role, boosting his market probability.
Israeli settlers inaugurate new West Bank settlement amid rising tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
The establishment of a new settlement near Bethlehem, supported by Netanyahu's government, highlighted the administration's far-right policies and emboldened settlers, impacting perceptions of Netanyahu's leadership and security stance.
Bennett‑Lapid joint ticket announced, rallying opposition forces
Naftali Bennett plunges to 33%16%
Bennett and Lapid announced a joint “Together” list with Bennett as the leader, opening the door for Eizenkot and Lieberman to join. The alliance reshaped the opposition and lifted Bennett’s and Eizenkot’s market odds while denting Netanyahu’s, explaining the sharp rise for Bennett and Eizenkot and the drop for Netanyahu after 15 Nov.
Netanyahu faces backlash over retouched photos of his wife in official releases
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 43%6%
The AP reported that state‑distributed images of Sara Netanyahu were heavily retouched, sparking an ethics debate and criticism of Netanyahu’s use of media, which hurt his public image and lowered his market price.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially boosting his political standing amid ongoing regional tensions.
Attorney General instructs Netanyahu to fill ministerial posts left vacant by Haredi lawmakers
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
The Attorney General directed Prime Minister Netanyahu to appoint ministers to posts vacated by ultra-Orthodox lawmakers, reflecting ongoing tensions over conscription laws and coalition stability. This legal pressure influenced perceptions of Netanyahu's coalition management ahead of elections.
Yoaz Hendel launches the Reservists Party ahead of 2026 elections
Yoaz Hendel, former minister and IDF reserve commander, founded the Reservists Party aiming to influence the upcoming election with a focus on military service and national security, entering the political race and affecting his market price.
Netanyahu visits IDF troops in southern Syria amid security concerns
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu's visit to IDF troops underscored his leadership on security issues, reinforcing his image as a strong leader ahead of elections and supporting his market position.
Justice Minister Yariv Levin pushes judicial appointments amid controversy
Yariv Levin plunges to 1%48%
Justice Minister Yariv Levin pushed for judicial appointments related to the Sde Teiman video leak investigation, sparking legal challenges and criticism. This controversy contributed to a decline in market confidence for Levin's prime ministerial prospects.
Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with ABC News about U.S. relations and West Bank unrest
Netanyahu's interview highlighted his ongoing leadership and policy positions, reinforcing his status as a key contender for the premiership, which supported his market price early in the analysis window.
Israeli Supreme Court orders Netanyahu to justify refusal to dismiss Ben-Gvir
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
The Supreme Court demanded Prime Minister Netanyahu explain why he has not fired National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir amid allegations of improper interference in police work. This legal challenge highlighted tensions within Netanyahu's coalition and raised questions about Ben-Gvir's political future, causing Ben-Gvir's market probability to plummet from 49% to 1%.
Former ISA chief Yoram Cohen joins Gadi Eizenkot's party
Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 2%47%
Yoram Cohen, former head of Israel Security Agency, joined Eizenkot's 'Yashar!' party, adding security credentials and political weight. Despite this, Eizenkot's market odds remained low, reflecting skepticism about his electoral prospects.
Netanyahu receives in-person boost from President Trump amid Gaza ceasefire
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
Following the Gaza ceasefire, Netanyahu gained political support from President Trump, bolstering his position as Prime Minister and impacting market confidence in his reappointment.
Israeli settlers establish new West Bank settlement amid security concerns
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Following a deadly stabbing attack near Jerusalem, Israeli settlers quickly established a new settlement, emboldened by the political climate under Netanyahu's far-right government and Trump's return to office. This event reinforced Netanyahu's strong support among settler constituencies, contributing to his market strength.
Israeli settlers inaugurate new West Bank settlement amid rising tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
The establishment of a new unauthorized settlement near Bethlehem, approved by Netanyahu's government, highlighted the far-right's influence and ongoing settler violence, impacting perceptions of Netanyahu's leadership and policy direction.
Itamar Ben Gvir Calls for Arrest of Mahmoud Abbas Over UN Statehood Vote
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir demanded the arrest of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas if a UN vote endorsed a Palestinian state, highlighting his hardline stance.
Naftali Bennett's mobile phone hacked exposing sensitive political data
Naftali Bennett drops to 36%13%
A cyberattack by the Hanzala group on Naftali Bennett's phone leaked sensitive political information, raising concerns about his security and political standing ahead of the election.
Gadi Eisenkot announces formation of Yashar party to challenge Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 37%32%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot announced the launch of his new political party, Yashar, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This announcement significantly boosted his market odds and polling numbers, marking him as Netanyahu's main challenger.
Gadi Eizenkot launches new party 'Yashar!' aiming for broad centrist coalition
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 5%4%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot announced the formation of a new political party called Yashar! in September 2025, positioning himself as a moderate alternative focused on security and national unity. This move increased his visibility and polling support as a potential prime ministerial candidate, impacting his market odds positively.
Itamar Ben-Gvir's political influence diminishes amid controversy
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
Ben-Gvir's market odds dropped sharply to near zero due to his controversial actions and international backlash, reducing his chances of becoming Prime Minister.
Benjamin Netanyahu consolidates Likud leadership amid internal party elections
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%9%
In November 2025, Likud held its Central Committee elections for the first time since 2012, reaffirming Netanyahu's leadership and strengthening his position ahead of the 2026 elections. This bolstered market confidence in Netanyahu's chances as next Prime Minister.
Netanyahu faces far-right backlash after US-backed statement on Palestinian state
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu's government faced internal coalition tensions after endorsing a US-backed UN resolution supporting a pathway to Palestinian statehood, provoking far-right allies. This backlash threatened government stability and influenced market confidence in Netanyahu's leadership prospects.
Netanyahu Vows Forceful Action Against Settler Violence and Reaffirms Stance on Hamas
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the weekly cabinet meeting, condemning extremist violence in the West Bank and reiterating his commitment to disarming Hamas.
Netanyahu backs a Palestinian state in US‑backed statement
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
Netanyahu’s US‑backed statement supporting a Palestinian state triggered a walk‑out threat from far‑right ministers, creating short‑term volatility but ultimately the market kept Netanyahu above 50 % as voters saw him as the incumbent.
Netanyahu condemns settler violence amid growing criticism
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly condemned violence by Jewish extremists in the West Bank, responding to criticism from the IDF chief and international observers. This stance helped stabilize his political position and maintain market confidence in his leadership prospects.
Netanyahu vows to disarm Hamas amid ongoing Gaza conflict
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly committed to disarming Hamas following the October 7 attack, reinforcing his security credentials and consolidating support within his right-wing coalition, which positively impacted his market standing.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces political challenges amid ongoing conflicts
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 47%2%
Netanyahu’s handling of wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, combined with corruption allegations, led to fluctuating market confidence and a decline in his chances as the next Prime Minister.
Gadi Eizenkot launches new political party Yashar!
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 52%3%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot announced the formation of a new centrist party, Yashar!, positioning himself as a strong contender for Prime Minister in the upcoming 2026 elections. This move boosted his market odds significantly as he attracted voters seeking an alternative to Netanyahu and Bennett.
Naftali Bennett registers new party 'Bennett 2026' signaling political comeback
Naftali Bennett jumps to 57%8%
Naftali Bennett registered a new political party in April 2025, indicating his intention to return to politics and potentially challenge Netanyahu in the 2026 elections. This announcement initially boosted his market price from 49% to a peak of 57%.
Poll shows Gadi Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu neck and neck as preferred PM
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 52%3%
A Channel 12 poll showed Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, with 43% of respondents favoring Eisenkot as the most suitable candidate for prime minister compared to 34% for Netanyahu. This poll marked Eisenkot's emergence as Netanyahu's main challenger, driving his market price upward.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces declining approval amid legal and health challenges
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 37%12%
Netanyahu's approval ratings dropped to historic lows amid ongoing corruption trials and health concerns, impacting his political standing ahead of the 2026 election. Despite this, he remained a leading candidate in the market.
Polls show Likud leads but Eizenkot surges, Bennett slips
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 13%12%
New polls indicated Likud remains the largest party but Gadi Eizenkot's party surged in support while Naftali Bennett's support declined, reflecting shifting voter preferences ahead of the election.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms candidacy for 2026 Israeli elections
Benjamin Netanyahu officially announced he will run for re-election in the 2026 legislative elections, reinforcing his position as a leading candidate despite ongoing legal and political challenges. This announcement maintained his market support as a potential next Prime Minister.
Naftali Bennett announces centrist slate for 2026 election
Naftali Bennett declared his intention to lead a centrist slate in the 2026 election, aiming to defeat Netanyahu's bloc and form a Zionist unity government. This announcement initially positioned Bennett as a strong contender, reflected in his early market support.
Gadi Eizenkot Announces the Formation of New Political Party 'Yashar'
Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 2%47%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot announced the establishment of his new political party, Yashar, aiming to present a broad governing alternative to the current coalition.
Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial cross-examination begins
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 47%2%
Netanyahu's criminal trial resumed with his cross-examination starting on November 15, 2025, marking a significant legal challenge that affected market confidence in his candidacy for prime minister, contributing to a dip in his market probability.
Gadi Eizenkot launches Yashar party, gaining centrist-security support
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot announced the formation of the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu. This boosted his market probability significantly as polls showed growing support for his party.
Gadi Eisenkot announces formation of Yashar party and election bid
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 51%2%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot announced the formation of his centrist party Yashar and his intention to run in the upcoming election, which led to a surge in his polling numbers and market price.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces ongoing legal challenges and public protests
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 47%2%
Netanyahu's criminal trial and mass protests against his government have weakened his political standing, contributing to a decline in market support for his re-election as Prime Minister.
Benjamin Netanyahu fails to form coalition, triggering new election
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 44%5%
Netanyahu's failure to form a government by the deadline led to the dissolution of parliament and a new election scheduled for October 2026. This event caused a sharp drop in market probabilities for Netanyahu and others as uncertainty increased.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of Yashar party and enters prime minister race
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot launched the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu, leading to a significant rise in his market odds as a potential next prime minister.
Gadi Eizenkot announces new party Yashar! to contest 2026 elections
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 5%4%
Former IDF Chief Gadi Eizenkot launched the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security candidate and main challenger to Netanyahu, leading to a surge in market support for his candidacy.
New polls show Gadi Eizenkot surging and Naftali Bennett slipping in Israel's political landscape
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 52%3%
Polls published by Kan News and Channel 13 indicated that Gadi Eizenkot's new party was gaining strength, challenging Netanyahu's Likud as the largest party, while Naftali Bennett's support declined. This boosted Eizenkot's market price as a leading challenger for Prime Minister.
Benjamin Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his image as a leader capable of advancing Israel's regional energy and economic interests, positively impacting his market probability.
Gadi Eizenkot launches new party Yashar! aiming to unite moderate voters
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 42%41%
Former IDF Chief Gadi Eizenkot announced the formation of the Yashar! party, positioning himself as a moderate alternative capable of attracting right-wing moderates, centrists, and liberals concerned about democratic stability. This boosted his market odds significantly from near zero to over 40%.
Benjamin Netanyahu's criminal trial cross-examination begins
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 35%14%
Netanyahu's criminal trial resumed with his cross-examination starting on November 15, 2025, marking a significant legal challenge that affected market confidence in his candidacy for prime minister, leading to a drop in his market price.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot leading over Netanyahu as preferred PM
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 51%2%
A poll released in November 2025 showed Gadi Eizenkot with a significant lead over Benjamin Netanyahu as the preferred Prime Minister, reflecting growing public support for Eizenkot and influencing market prices accordingly.
Gadi Eizenkot announces entry into politics with new party Yashar!
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 49%48%
Gadi Eizenkot, former IDF Chief of Staff, announced his political candidacy and launched the Yashar! party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu. This announcement caused a surge in his market price from 1% to near 49%.
Polls show Likud leading but Gadi Eizenkot surging as Netanyahu faces challenges
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 14%13%
New polls indicated Likud as the largest party but showed Gadi Eizenkot gaining strength as a centrist-security alternative, boosting his market odds as a potential next Prime Minister and signaling a competitive race against Netanyahu.
Benjamin Netanyahu begins 2026 election campaign amid legal and political challenges
Netanyahu officially starts his campaign for the 2026 elections while facing ongoing corruption trials and political opposition, which initially held his market odds at around 49%. This set the stage for a competitive election environment.
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