**Tensions between Israel and Turkey center on competing influence in post-Assad Syria, where Israeli strikes such as the August 2026 attack on the Abu al-Duhur airbase aimed to block potential Turkish military expansion near its border.** Heated rhetoric from leaders on both sides, including mutual accusations and legal measures, has intensified, yet analysts note neither government seeks direct confrontation. Turkey’s NATO membership raises escalation risks, while indirect economic ties, ongoing diplomatic contacts via a new Israeli chargé d’affaires, and reported deconfliction discussions help manage friction. Recent reporting highlights the primary danger as miscalculation rather than deliberate action, supporting trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to no direct military clash before 2027.