US-Denmark military relations remain anchored in longstanding NATO membership and a 1951 defense agreement updated by the September 2026 trilateral security pact on Greenland. That deal permits expanded US basing at Pituffik and two new sites while explicitly preserving Danish sovereignty and Greenland’s self-determination, ending months of diplomatic friction triggered by earlier US acquisition rhetoric. Traders assign 96.6% probability to no clash before 2027 because both governments have prioritized coordinated Arctic defense against external actors and no active disputes or force deployments signal escalation. Residual uncertainty stems from potential shifts in US Arctic priorities, leadership changes, or unforeseen resource or sovereignty claims that could reopen talks within the narrow remaining window.