Traders assign a 98.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 primarily because only weeks remain in the resolution window and current People’s Liberation Army activity consists of gray-zone pressure rather than the large-scale amphibious mobilization required for an invasion. Early November 2026 saw unannounced naval drills involving over 100 vessels, including Liaoning carrier group area-denial exercises east of Taiwan, which Taipei described as “silent intimidation” ahead of the APEC summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent policy speech emphasized peaceful reunification without reference to force. These patterns align with sustained but sub-conflict coercion observed throughout 2026, including routine air and maritime patrols. A sudden escalation from miscalculation during the APEC meeting or an unforeseen internal trigger could still shift probabilities, though such developments remain improbable before year-end.