**Ongoing limited strikes, sanctions pressure, and mediation efforts since the February 2026 U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iranian nuclear and military sites have kept direct U.S. ground involvement off the table.** The conflict has featured intermittent naval and missile exchanges focused on the Strait of Hormuz, collapsed June MOU talks, and renewed September 2026 strikes on Iranian targets, but U.S. operations have remained air and sea-based with reported costs exceeding $38 billion and 18 U.S. fatalities. Iran’s economic strain and leadership transition have not prompted escalation to invasion-scale ground operations. Traders price an 84.5% chance of “No” because the administration has prioritized coercive strikes, blockades, and third-party diplomacy over the high-risk, high-cost option of deploying large ground forces inside Iran before 2027.