Ongoing diplomatic engagement following the 2026 Iran war, including the June memorandum of understanding and subsequent technical talks, has reduced the likelihood of a full-scale U.S. ground invasion. Limited U.S. airstrikes and responses to Strait of Hormuz incidents in July have targeted specific threats rather than pursuing regime change or territorial control. Active mediation, sanctions relief discussions, and a proposed $300 billion reconstruction framework underscore preferences for negotiated de-escalation over large-scale military commitment. Traders price the “No” outcome at 83.5% because historical patterns and current force postures favor containment through strikes and diplomacy ahead of the 2027 deadline, though renewed escalation remains possible if Hormuz tensions intensify.