Active U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations in May 2026, including Iran's review of a U.S. framework proposal to end the ongoing conflict, represent the primary driver behind the 68.5% implied probability against a full invasion before 2027. Following joint U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites that began in late February 2026 and a subsequent ceasefire in early April, both sides have prioritized talks through indirect channels and mediators, with recent pauses in naval operations tied to progress. These developments, alongside Iranian warnings of regional retaliation and U.S. focus on nuclear limits rather than regime change, have sustained trader consensus that ground invasion remains unlikely absent major escalation or breakdown in diplomacy.