Trump’s broad rhetoric on Canada becoming the “51st state” through economic pressure and tariffs has sustained bilateral tensions into 2026, yet no public announcements, executive actions, or federal statements have targeted sovereignty or control over any Alberta territory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s earlier description of Alberta as a “natural partner” and limited administration contacts with provincial separatist groups occurred without commitments or follow-through on acquisition. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has focused on energy cooperation and an internal referendum on provincial autonomy, while Prime Minister Mark Carney has reaffirmed Canadian sovereignty in White House exchanges. The U.S. ambassador has stated the administration will stay out of Alberta’s referendum process. These factors, absent any qualifying territorial claim before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, underpin trader consensus that such an attempt remains unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
17% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s broad rhetoric on Canada becoming the “51st state” through economic pressure and tariffs has sustained bilateral tensions into 2026, yet no public announcements, executive actions, or federal statements have targeted sovereignty or control over any Alberta territory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s earlier description of Alberta as a “natural partner” and limited administration contacts with provincial separatist groups occurred without commitments or follow-through on acquisition. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has focused on energy cooperation and an internal referendum on provincial autonomy, while Prime Minister Mark Carney has reaffirmed Canadian sovereignty in White House exchanges. The U.S. ambassador has stated the administration will stay out of Alberta’s referendum process. These factors, absent any qualifying territorial claim before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, underpin trader consensus that such an attempt remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Volume
$3,672End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s broad rhetoric on Canada becoming the “51st state” through economic pressure and tariffs has sustained bilateral tensions into 2026, yet no public announcements, executive actions, or federal statements have targeted sovereignty or control over any Alberta territory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s earlier description of Alberta as a “natural partner” and limited administration contacts with provincial separatist groups occurred without commitments or follow-through on acquisition. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has focused on energy cooperation and an internal referendum on provincial autonomy, while Prime Minister Mark Carney has reaffirmed Canadian sovereignty in White House exchanges. The U.S. ambassador has stated the administration will stay out of Alberta’s referendum process. These factors, absent any qualifying territorial claim before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, underpin trader consensus that such an attempt remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,672End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s broad rhetoric on Canada becoming the “51st state” through economic pressure and tariffs has sustained bilateral tensions into 2026, yet no public announcements, executive actions, or federal statements have targeted sovereignty or control over any Alberta territory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s earlier description of Alberta as a “natural partner” and limited administration contacts with provincial separatist groups occurred without commitments or follow-through on acquisition. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has focused on energy cooperation and an internal referendum on provincial autonomy, while Prime Minister Mark Carney has reaffirmed Canadian sovereignty in White House exchanges. The U.S. ambassador has stated the administration will stay out of Alberta’s referendum process. These factors, absent any qualifying territorial claim before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, underpin trader consensus that such an attempt remains unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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