The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's first succession in decades, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March amid wartime conditions and Revolutionary Guards influence. Six months later, trader focus centers on Mojtaba's limited public role, persistent questions over his legitimacy and managerial capacity, and reported internal tensions including denied rumors of President Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation. Recent hardline appointments, U.S. sanctions targeting linked financial networks, and signals of regime defiance against external pressure have reinforced perceptions of consolidated yet fragile authority. Ongoing economic strain, security concerns limiting visibility, and potential for further elite shifts or unrest remain key variables that could alter probabilities around additional leadership transitions.