The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience amid leadership decapitation, major military conflict, and domestic unrest underpins the strong trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s killing in February 2026 strikes, succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, with power consolidating around IRGC commanders and security networks rather than fracturing. Nationwide protests peaking in late 2025 and early 2026 were met with lethal force, resulting in thousands of deaths and mass arrests, without triggering elite defections or institutional breakdown. A subsequent ceasefire and ongoing U.S. talks have allowed the reconfigured leadership to maintain core institutions and pursue deterrence alongside diplomacy. These factors, combined with the regime’s history of adapting to sanctions and isolation, explain why market pricing assigns only a low probability to regime fall in the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7% chance
$26,232,175 Vol.
$26,232,175 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$26,232,175 Vol.
$26,232,175 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience amid leadership decapitation, major military conflict, and domestic unrest underpins the strong trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s killing in February 2026 strikes, succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, with power consolidating around IRGC commanders and security networks rather than fracturing. Nationwide protests peaking in late 2025 and early 2026 were met with lethal force, resulting in thousands of deaths and mass arrests, without triggering elite defections or institutional breakdown. A subsequent ceasefire and ongoing U.S. talks have allowed the reconfigured leadership to maintain core institutions and pursue deterrence alongside diplomacy. These factors, combined with the regime’s history of adapting to sanctions and isolation, explain why market pricing assigns only a low probability to regime fall in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$26,232,175End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience amid leadership decapitation, major military conflict, and domestic unrest underpins the strong trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s killing in February 2026 strikes, succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, with power consolidating around IRGC commanders and security networks rather than fracturing. Nationwide protests peaking in late 2025 and early 2026 were met with lethal force, resulting in thousands of deaths and mass arrests, without triggering elite defections or institutional breakdown. A subsequent ceasefire and ongoing U.S. talks have allowed the reconfigured leadership to maintain core institutions and pursue deterrence alongside diplomacy. These factors, combined with the regime’s history of adapting to sanctions and isolation, explain why market pricing assigns only a low probability to regime fall in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,232,177End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience amid leadership decapitation, major military conflict, and domestic unrest underpins the strong trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s killing in February 2026 strikes, succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly via the Assembly of Experts, with power consolidating around IRGC commanders and security networks rather than fracturing. Nationwide protests peaking in late 2025 and early 2026 were met with lethal force, resulting in thousands of deaths and mass arrests, without triggering elite defections or institutional breakdown. A subsequent ceasefire and ongoing U.S. talks have allowed the reconfigured leadership to maintain core institutions and pursue deterrence alongside diplomacy. These factors, combined with the regime’s history of adapting to sanctions and isolation, explain why market pricing assigns only a low probability to regime fall in the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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