The regime’s demonstrated resilience amid severe shocks underpins the 78% trader consensus against collapse before 2028. Major U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders yet triggered only brief leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, with security forces remaining cohesive and no widespread defections. Earlier nationwide protests sparked by rial collapse and inflation were suppressed with thousands of deaths, after which unrest subsided without coalescing into organized regime change. Ongoing sanctions, naval pressure, and economic strain continue to erode legitimacy and resources, but the Islamic Republic has historically adapted through coercion and limited concessions. Analysts note that external military action has at times consolidated internal support, while structural barriers like fragmented opposition and intact coercive institutions limit near-term overthrow prospects despite persistent vulnerabilities.