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Strait Of Hormuz predictions & odds

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

<1%

$16M Vol.

$1M today

$2M Liq.

2

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

31%

$6M Vol.

$641K today

$343K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

6%

$14M Vol.

$453K today

$590K Liq.

1

Ends in 16 days

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

14%

Oil Sanction Relief

$1M Vol.

$388K today

$282K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

1%

$892K Vol.

$334K today

$46.6K Liq.

40

Ends in 16 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

50%

June 30

$18M Vol.

$292K today

$264K Liq.

464

Ends in about 2 months

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

9%

June 30

$43M Vol.

$157K today

$634K Liq.

403

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

38%

May 31

$202K Vol.

$83.3K today

$108K Liq.

8

Ends in 16 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

46%

$156K Vol.

$64.4K today

$96.4K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

11%

United Kingdom

$916K Vol.

$214K Liq.

13

Ends in 16 days

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

58%

20+

$426K Vol.

$32.4K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

20%

September 30

$3M Vol.

$92.3K Liq.

95

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

71%

0-10

$209K Vol.

$69.0K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

77%

$120K Vol.

$145K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

53%

20-39

$47.6K Vol.

$15.4K Liq.

Ends in 1 day

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

7%

$415K Vol.

$60.8K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 16 active markets for Strait Of Hormuz that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $104.0M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 9% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Strait Of Hormuz predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.