Recent joint sessions of the Qatar-UAE Supreme Committee, including the May 2026 meeting in Abu Dhabi, along with ratification of a double taxation agreement and ongoing economic coordination, underscore sustained bilateral engagement under the Al-Ula reconciliation framework. These steps reflect aligned interests in Gulf security, trade integration, and regional stability, with both states participating in parallel diplomatic initiatives. Traders assign only a 4.8% chance of severance by year-end because no verified disputes or policy shifts have emerged to disrupt this trajectory. Late developments such as major escalations in neighboring conflicts, sudden leadership changes, or irreconcilable positions on Iran or energy policy could still introduce tail risks before December 31, 2026.