UAE-Qatar relations have remained stable since their full restoration in 2021 under the Al-Ula framework, with embassies reopening in 2023 and continued participation in GCC coordination on regional security. Recent developments include joint Gulf summits in 2026 addressing shared concerns such as Iran and collective defense, alongside Qatar’s public condemnation of attacks on UAE-linked assets. Both governments maintain structural incentives for economic and diplomatic engagement despite underlying competition over regional influence. Traders assign only a low single-digit probability to severance by year-end because no verified escalatory trigger has emerged and historical patterns favor managed competition over rupture. Late-year shifts in alliances or major external shocks could still alter the trajectory before December 31, 2026.