Ukraine’s government under President Zelenskyy maintains firm control through extended martial law that suspends elections and centralizes authority, with no verifiable signs of elite fractures, military dissent, or organized plots in recent weeks. Traders assign just 2.7 percent probability to a coup attempt by June 30 because battlefield developments have reinforced domestic resolve rather than triggering upheaval, while unified support from parliament and security services focuses on Western aid and frontline defense. Historical patterns show incumbents in active conflicts rarely face internal challenges without catastrophic collapse or major scandals, neither of which appears imminent. Late developments that could still shift odds include a sudden high-level defection or dramatic reversal on the battlefield, though institutional safeguards and the war footing make these scenarios remote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$12,266 Vol.
$12,266 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$12,266 Vol.
$12,266 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine’s government under President Zelenskyy maintains firm control through extended martial law that suspends elections and centralizes authority, with no verifiable signs of elite fractures, military dissent, or organized plots in recent weeks. Traders assign just 2.7 percent probability to a coup attempt by June 30 because battlefield developments have reinforced domestic resolve rather than triggering upheaval, while unified support from parliament and security services focuses on Western aid and frontline defense. Historical patterns show incumbents in active conflicts rarely face internal challenges without catastrophic collapse or major scandals, neither of which appears imminent. Late developments that could still shift odds include a sudden high-level defection or dramatic reversal on the battlefield, though institutional safeguards and the war footing make these scenarios remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Volumen
$12,266Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine’s government under President Zelenskyy maintains firm control through extended martial law that suspends elections and centralizes authority, with no verifiable signs of elite fractures, military dissent, or organized plots in recent weeks. Traders assign just 2.7 percent probability to a coup attempt by June 30 because battlefield developments have reinforced domestic resolve rather than triggering upheaval, while unified support from parliament and security services focuses on Western aid and frontline defense. Historical patterns show incumbents in active conflicts rarely face internal challenges without catastrophic collapse or major scandals, neither of which appears imminent. Late developments that could still shift odds include a sudden high-level defection or dramatic reversal on the battlefield, though institutional safeguards and the war footing make these scenarios remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$12,266Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s government under President Zelenskyy maintains firm control through extended martial law that suspends elections and centralizes authority, with no verifiable signs of elite fractures, military dissent, or organized plots in recent weeks. Traders assign just 2.7 percent probability to a coup attempt by June 30 because battlefield developments have reinforced domestic resolve rather than triggering upheaval, while unified support from parliament and security services focuses on Western aid and frontline defense. Historical patterns show incumbents in active conflicts rarely face internal challenges without catastrophic collapse or major scandals, neither of which appears imminent. Late developments that could still shift odds include a sudden high-level defection or dramatic reversal on the battlefield, though institutional safeguards and the war footing make these scenarios remote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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