Recent Victorian state polling shows a fragmented primary vote with the Coalition on around 29%, Labor near 24-25%, One Nation at 20-23%, and the Greens at 14%, producing narrow two-party preferred margins and highly variable seat projections. The rise of One Nation since 2022 has split the non-Labor vote while Labor’s primary remains depressed under Premier Ben Carroll, leaving second place dependent on preference flows, regional swings, and minor-party performance across the 88 lower house seats. Trader consensus at 50% for multiple outcomes reflects this uncertainty, with late-campaign developments such as formal preference deals, leadership ratings shifts, or turnout patterns in key battlegrounds likely to clarify positioning ahead of the November 28 election.