The Liberal–National Coalition holds a commanding position in the Victorian state election market, reflecting consistent polling leads of 54–46 to 57–43 on two-party preferred measures in the final weeks before the 28 November vote. After 12 years in office, Labor’s primary vote has fallen sharply to the low 20s, while the Coalition maintains steady support near 31 percent and One Nation has risen into the low 20s. This shift exceeds the uniform swing needed for a majority in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. Traders’ implied probabilities align with these trends and historical base rates for incumbent defeats after extended terms. A late swing, unexpected preference flows from minor parties, or stronger-than-expected Labor performance in key seats remain the main variables that could alter the outcome before election day.