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icon for Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria
Wahlen·Australien

Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria

icon for Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria
Wahlen·Australien

Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria

Liberal–National 61%

Labor 32%

One Nation 9%

Greens 4.0%

Polymarket
NEU

Liberal–National 61%

Labor 32%

One Nation 9%

Greens 4.0%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Liberal–National

Liberal–National

$1,400 Vol.

61%

icon for Labor

Labor

$322 Vol.

32%

icon for One Nation

One Nation

$53 Vol.

9%

icon for Greens

Greens

$100 Vol.

4%

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28 state election shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically 51-57 percent, amid a fragmented primary vote where One Nation has surged into the mid-20s in several surveys while Labor and the Coalition sit near 26 percent each. Trader pricing reflects this positioning, with the Coalition as the clear favorite due to voter dissatisfaction over cost-of-living pressures, crime rates, and state debt accumulated during 12 years of Labor government, compounded by the recent leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation’s rise has complicated seat projections but appears to draw more from Labor-leaning voters, supporting Coalition prospects on preferences in key marginals. Greens and minor parties remain low-probability outright winners given structural barriers in the preferential system.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.

Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volumen
$1,875
Enddatum
28. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria’s November 28 state election shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a consistent two-party-preferred lead over Labor, typically 51-57 percent, amid a fragmented primary vote where One Nation has surged into the mid-20s in several surveys while Labor and the Coalition sit near 26 percent each. Trader pricing reflects this positioning, with the Coalition as the clear favorite due to voter dissatisfaction over cost-of-living pressures, crime rates, and state debt accumulated during 12 years of Labor government, compounded by the recent leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation’s rise has complicated seat projections but appears to draw more from Labor-leaning voters, supporting Coalition prospects on preferences in key marginals. Greens and minor parties remain low-probability outright winners given structural barriers in the preferential system.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.

Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volumen
$1,875
Enddatum
28. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).

Verwandte

icon for Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

59%
icon for Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

80%
icon for Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

55%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 4 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Liberal–National" mit 61%, gefolgt von „Labor" mit 32%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 61¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 61% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 20, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 4 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria" ist „Liberal–National" mit 61%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 61% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Labor" mit 32%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Sieger der Parlamentswahl in Victoria" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.