Toy Story 5’s June 2026 domestic opening near $160 million has solidified trader consensus around its 88.5% implied probability for third place, as the Pixar sequel outperformed most family films while landing behind only the record-shattering Spider-Man: Brand New Day and another major release in the year-to-date rankings. Strong presales, PLF appeal, and franchise momentum positioned it ahead of earlier 2026 bows like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. Later tentpoles such as Avengers: Doomsday (December) and Dune: Messiah carry low single-digit odds for exactly third due to uncertain tracking and competition from already-established highs, leaving limited room for shifts before year-end tallies finalize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWelcher Film hat das drittgrößte Eröffnungswochenende im Jahr 2026?
Toy Story 5 89%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 5.1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 3.1%
Avengers: Doomsday 3.0%
$14,224 Vol.
$14,224 Vol.
Toy Story 5
89%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
5%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
3%
Avengers: Doomsday
3%
Dune: Messiah
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
Toy Story 5 89%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 5.1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 3.1%
Avengers: Doomsday 3.0%
$14,224 Vol.
$14,224 Vol.
Toy Story 5
89%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
5%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
3%
Avengers: Doomsday
3%
Dune: Messiah
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s June 2026 domestic opening near $160 million has solidified trader consensus around its 88.5% implied probability for third place, as the Pixar sequel outperformed most family films while landing behind only the record-shattering Spider-Man: Brand New Day and another major release in the year-to-date rankings. Strong presales, PLF appeal, and franchise momentum positioned it ahead of earlier 2026 bows like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. Later tentpoles such as Avengers: Doomsday (December) and Dune: Messiah carry low single-digit odds for exactly third due to uncertain tracking and competition from already-established highs, leaving limited room for shifts before year-end tallies finalize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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